Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Churchill’s $7,041 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, Sept. 13 at Churchill Downs and Charles Town, including tickets for Churchill’s $7,041 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• $3,000 Los Alamitos Leaderboard: Place $10+ win bets at Los Alamitos from Friday through Sunday to earn points and compete for your share of $3,000 in prizes.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Churchill Downs: Race 8: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 4:22 p.m. ET)

#8 Complex Secret (15-1) didn’t show much in her debut sprinting six furlongs at Saratoga, finishing sixth by a wide margin. But that was a fast contest won by Senza Parole, one of the most promising two-year-old fillies in training.

Trainer Kenny McPeek doesn’t typically crank his juveniles to win on debut, so Complex Secret is eligible to move forward while making her second start, a 16% winning angle for McPeek. Since the odds of Complex Secret running into another Senza Parole are relatively low, let’s try a win bet on this 15-1 shot.

Selections

• #8 Complex Secret (15-1)
• #3 First Class Lady (3-1)
• #2 Purple and Gold (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Complex Secret

Charles Town: Race 1: $12,500 Maiden Claiming (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 7 p.m. ET)

Speed is incredibly dominant in 4 1/2-furlong sprints at Charles Town. Pacesetters have won 65% of such races this year, and that’s from a large 365-race sample size.

That’s one reason why we’re keen to back #8 Adios Pluma (7-5) on Friday. In his debut sprinting six furlongs against maiden special weight competition at Colonial Downs last year, Adios Pluma ran a fast opening quarter-mile in :21.79 and remained in the hunt through half a mile in :45.40 before tiring to finish fourth.

Adios Pluma hasn’t run since, but he’s adding Lasix for his return and picking up hot jockey Arnaldo Bocachica, a 30% winner at Charles Town this meet. Let’s try betting Adios Pluma over #6 Restrike (9-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #8 Adios Pluma (7-5)
• #6 Restrike (9-2)
• #5 No Blushing Here (4-1)

Wagers

• $15 Exacta: 8 with 6

Charles Town: Race 3: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 8:02 p.m. ET)

Since 2021, trainer Anthony Farrior has compiled an excellent 8-for-23 (35%) record debuting juveniles in sprints at Charles Town. This stat suggests #4 Mille Parole (7-2) is worthy of a win bet.

A son of Thousand Words (who sires 18% winners from first-time starters), Mille Parole has shown speed in the mornings at Laurel Park, posting a trio of bullet three-furlong workouts plus a swift half-mile from the starting gate in :48. Under hot jockey Angel Cruz (a 25% winner at Charles Town this meet), Mille Parole is a compelling win choice.

Selections

• #4 Mille Parole (7-2)
• #1 Annapolis Road (2-1)
• #8 Bold Rock (5-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #4 Mille Parole

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $7,041 Super High 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

Bettors had trouble hitting the $1 Super High 5 at Churchill Downs on opening day. The wager went unsolved the final three times it was offered, producing a triple carryover worth $7,041 into Friday’s card.

The prize pool is up for grabs right off the bat in Race 1, a $50,000 maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt. Eight horses have entered, so there are 6,720 possible Super High 5 outcomes to analyze.

It’s a tough race to handicap. #6 Boutwell Time (5-2) is the morning line favorite after finishing eighth, fifth, and seventh in her first three starts against maiden special weight company. Trainer Tom Amoss wins at a 27% rate with horses entering the maiden claiming ranks for the first time, so dropping in class should help Boutwell Time’s chances. But she failed to threaten whatsoever in her lone start on dirt, so returning to dirt after a couple of better tries on turf is a question mark.

Perhaps an upset is in the offing. A couple of 5-1 shots offer appeal: #3 Blushing Kam (5-1) and #8 Little Bit O Storm (5-1).

Blushing Kam is a first-time starter trained by Chris Hartman, who wins at an excellent 20% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers. A daughter of Upstart (who sires a solid 14% winners from first-time starters), Blushing Kam has put together a lengthy work tab capped off by half a mile from the Churchill Downs starting gate in :48 4/5. Under jockey Rafael Bejarano (a 21% winner teaming up with Hartman over the last two months), Blushing Kam is a viable win threat on debut.

As for Little Bit O Storm, she debuted in a $50,000 maiden optional claimer sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over the Ellis Park turf course. After rating off the pace, she made a nice middle move before flattening out to finish sixth. Trainer Kenny McPeek wins at a 16% rate with second-time starters and at a 23% rate with horses dropping into the maiden claiming ranks for the first time, so there are plenty of reasons to believe Little Bit O Storm can move forward on Friday.

Here’s how we’ll bet the Super High 5:

• $1 Super High 5: 3,8 with 3,8 with 6 with 2,4,7 with 2,4,7 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 3,8 with 3,8 with 4,7 with 6 with 2,4,7 ($8)
• $1 Super High 5: 3,8 with 3,8 with 4,7 with 2,4,7 with 6 ($8)
• $1 Super High 5: 3,8 with 6 with 3,8 with 2,4,7 with 2,4,7 ($12)
• $1 Super High 5: 3,8 with 4,7 with 3,8 with 6 with 2,4,7 ($8)
• $1 Super High 5: 3,8 with 4,7 with 3,8 with 2,4,7 with 6 ($8)
  Total: $56

Good luck!