Hanson: Betting the Pegasus World Cup Late Pick 5

January 27th, 2023

The all-stakes Late Pick 5 on Saturday's Pegasus World Cup Day card at Gulfstream Park includes several races with seemingly vulnerable favorites, which is customarily the optimum conditions in which to hop in and play this type of wager.

Here are my thoughts on the 50-cent sequence:

Pick 5 ticket

50-cent Pick 5: 4,6 with 2,6,10,13 with 9 with 3,4,11,12,14 with 4,7 = $40

Race 9

The top two finishers from last year's edition of the William L. McKnight (G3) appear the ones to back again. I expect #4 Abaan (5-1) to move forward a bit off his recent comeback effort in a shorter allowance and, with not much speed in this field, he might enjoy a tactical advantage. #6 Temple (9-2) has thrown clunkers in two of his last three, but the rest of his 2022 form points him out as one of the more capable players in this spot.

Race 10

Fred W. Hooper (G3) morning line favorite Miles D is surely the horse to beat, but he's coming off a really long layoff and is buried in post 1 over this one-turn mile. I'll fade him and instead look for others who might be able to capitalize on an expected fast and contested pace.

#6 Black Belt (6-1) is 3-for-3 since joining the Peter Walder barn and will be tested for class here, but he sure looks to be going the right way and has the right running style to be within striking distance throughout. #10 The Reds (12-1), who has routed most of his career and thus hasn't had the luxury of chasing down wicked fractions, might benefit from the zip likely to be shown by two fellow Saffie Joseph stablemates, Mish and Picking Up Pennies. I'll also use track-and-distance specialists #2 Noble Drama (20-1) and #13 Twelve Volt Man (8-1).

Race 11

Draw a line through her last race and #9 Shantisara (9-5) looks rather solid in the Pegasus World Cup Filly and Mare Turf (G3). The Grade 1 veteran finished only a length behind eventual Eclipse Award champion Regal Glory in the Jenny Wiley (G1) two starts back.

Race 12

I'm fading morning line favorite Ivar and going deep in this leg. #3 Atone (12-1) was a solid fourth in this event last year and has a touch of speed in a race lacking much pace. #4 Hurricane Dream (15-1) is the lone European raider in the field. His form line from last year's Prix Exbury (G3), in which he split Pretty Tiger and Skalleti, is decent enough, and perhaps compromised by the shorter distance of other Group races he contested later in the '22 season.

I'll also use Eddie Read (G2) winner #11 Master Piece (10-1), who debuts for the Joseph barn; #12 City Man (4-1), who won his third straight taking the Fort Lauderdale (G2) last time; and the also-eligible #14 Steady On (30-1), who remains with upside for a Todd Pletcher barn that won this the past two years with Colonel Liam.

Race 13

I'll fade the soon-to-be-retired Cyberknife and go with the Joseph runners #6 Skippylongstocking (5-1), who earned solid figs winning the Harlan's Holiday (G3) and West Virginia Derby (G3), and 2022 Florida Derby (G1) winner #4 White Abarrio (10-1), whose past success over this track and distance is a presumed asset.