Hong Kong: What is the best race to bet at Happy Valley on Dec. 23?

Hefty trifecta payoffs are pretty much par for the course at Happy Valley Racecourse in Hong Kong.

Last week, an eight-race card saw every trifecta return at least $96.07 for a base bet of $1.30. Seven of the eight returned well over $100, highlighted by a payoff of $745.94 in the day’s sixth race.

The takeaway? It will be worth spending a bit of money to pursue trifecta tickets when Happy Valley hosts another competitive card Wednesday, two days before Christmas.

Who knows? Perhaps you’ll win enough to buy your friends and family members another round of Christmas gifts!

Of course, the reason trifectas pay well at Happy Valley is because they’re hard to hit. With large fields and handicap conditions, it’s usually difficult to find horses you can count on with confidence.

So which is the best race to play at Happy Valley on Wednesday? I’m going to vote in favor of the sixth race, a 1,200-meter, Class 3 handicap. Twelve horses have been entered, but I believe they can be sorted into four straightforward categories.

The most likely winner

#9 Super Axiom made a great impression in his debut, a 1,000-meter sprint at Sha Tin last month. Not only did he flash excellent speed to quickly clear the field and set the pace, but he kicked away readily when asked and won with something left in the tank.

Super Axiom will step up in class and distance at Happy Valley, but given how easily he won his debut, I’m optimistic this up-and-coming 3-year-old will handle these challenges just fine.

The reliable second choice

#3 Grateful Heart is a horse you can count on to be involved at the finish.

In his last three starts sprinting 1,200 meters over the Happy Valley turf, Grateful Heart has recorded two victories and a close, runner-up effort.

With Hong Kong’s reigning champion jockey, Zac Purton, aboard, Grateful Heart is a reliable contender to finish in the money.

The fringe contenders

#1 Ima Single Man, #2 Loving a Boom, #4 Sparkling Dragon, #5 Man Star, and #7 Harrier Jet might not be quite as formidable on paper as Super Axiom and Grateful Heart, but they’ve all shown flashes of talent along the way and can battle for the minor awards.

The longshots

#6 Super Commander hasn’t finished better than tenth in five starts. #8 Just Not Listening was beaten 15 1/2 lengths over this class level and distance when last seen. #10 Bright Kid has yet to crack the trifecta in 12 starts at the Class 3 level. #11 Thou Shall Sing and #12 More Than a Horse have likewise struggled to challenge against this caliber of competition.

While it’s not uncommon for longshots to outrun expectations in Hong Kong, we’ll take a stand and exclude these five from our tickets.

The tickets

Our trifecta wagering strategy will be simple. We’ll bet Super Axiom on top, key the reliable Grateful Heart underneath, and use Ima Single Man, Loving a Boom, Sparkling Dragon, Man Star, and Harrier Jet to round out our tickets.

$2.60 trifecta: 9 with 3 with 1,2,4,5,7 ($13)
$2.60 trifecta: 9 with 1,2,4,5,7 with 3 ($13)
Total: $26

Good luck!