Horse Racing This Weekend: Key Races, Top Horses & Best Bets [Oct. 4, 2025]

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Weekend Windup

Jason Beem Horse Racing Podcast

Jason discusses Keeneland's opening weekend races and we welcome in Jim Goodman from Keeneland to talk wagering, tournaments, the fall meet, and more! 

Top horses and best bets for horse racing this weekend

Click to jump to each race listed!

Best Bets for the 2025 Champagne Stakes

Read the full analysis here: Tipsheet: 2025 Champagne Stakes

A talented field of nine juveniles will vie in Saturday’s $500,000 Champagne S. (G1) at Aqueduct. The 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier will reward the top five finishers with qualifying points on a 10-5-3-2-1 structure. It also serves as a ‘Win and You’re In’ event for the upcoming Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) at Del Mar on Oct. 31.

Champagne Stakes Picks

• #6 It’s Our Time 
• #9 Talkin
• #8 Napoleon Solo 

Champagne Stakes Wagers

• $20 to win on #6 It’s Our Time
• $10 Exacta: 6 with 8,9
• $3 Trifecta: box 6,8,9

Top Horses for the 2025 Champagne Stakes

Read the full analysis here: Meet the Contenders: 2025 Champagne Stakes

#1 CURTAIN CALL: Casse trainee was a dominant maiden winner at Saratoga two back prior to checking in third in the subsequent Hopeful S. (G1). The $325,000 son of Tiz the Law gets a nice draw on the rail for the tilt and might move forward with move ground to work with on Saturday. Ricardo Sanatana, Jr. has the assignment. 

Pro: Just missed second behind runaway Hopeful (G1) winner.

Con: Skipped over slop two back but was well beaten in two tries over a fast track.

#2 STRADALE: $1.3 million juvenile buy led into the stretch and just missed in the maiden ranks last time out for Steve Asmussen. Bay son of Yaupon could be the one to catch at the top of the lane with Manny Franco in the silks. 

Pro: Took a notable step forward second out; just missed.

Con: Still a maiden and steps up in distance after losing over seven furlongs.

#3 UNIVERSE: McPeek's second timer put in a bold run in the lane to graduate at first asking at The Spa and has a bright future. The $75,000 son of Global Campaign has posted a trio of morning drills in the interim and will be doing his best work late with Christopher Elliot on board. 

Pro: Convincing maiden win at Saratoga as a longshot; has upside.

Con: The colt's debut was relatively slow; he needs to quicken.

#4 AYE EYE: The $45,000 two-year-old buy was a late-running victor in his debut upstate and was fifth in the Hopeful S. (G1) in his second appearance. Essential Quality gray will be making one run from well off the early pace with Samuel Marin accepting the mount. 

Pro: Made a tremendous rally to win first out; less impressive in Hopeful.

Con: Tends to break slowly; might prefer two turns.

#5 JUST ASAP: Second from the Casse shedrow just missed in the Sapling S. at Monmouth in his second career endeavor and has top-three appeal under Geroux. The son of good young sire Maxfield is capable at the distance and could grab a share with another move in the right direction. 

Pro: Lost a prolonged stretch duel in Sapling S.; fast enough to garner a share here.

Con: Remains to be seen how he’ll handle a stalking trip; slow final work for this.

#6 IT’S OUR TIME: Smashing debut winner ran off by a sensational 17 3/4 lengths in his unveiling for Tom Amoss and is clearly the one to beat in his second assignment. The $425,000 son of Not This Time has posted a trio of morning drills coming off of his score, and the added ground will be to his benefit, as well. January foal will be imposing with a repeat of his last run under Saez. 

Pro: Eye-catching debut win at Saratoga; the horse to beat if he can replicate it.

Con: The price shortens a lot this time and gets a stronger test to boot.

#7 STICKUPWITHOUTAGUN: New York-bred colt appreciated the move to the main oval in his second performance when graduating for McPeek. The McKinzie colt goes from six panels to one mile in this one, and he could be in the mix late to challenge for a minor award beneath Rivera. 

Pro: Moved up a lot switching to dirt; barn is having a strong meet thus far.

Con: Takes a severe class hike exiting NY-bred company.

#8 NAPOLEON SOLO: The Chad Summers trainee was a sharp debut winner while taking money at Saratoga and is one of the major threats to the favorite in the contest. The gray son of Liam’s Map is bred to thrive at the trip and comes in with three bullet drills in succession, as well. Joel Rosario inherits the ride. 

Pro: Sharp and fast maiden win at the Spa; deserving of trying better.

Con: Won an auction maiden, which is not as difficult a test.

#9 TALKIN: Danny Gargan pupil rallied in the lane to corral a clear one late in a game debut score at Saratoga on Aug. 30. The $600,000 son of Good Magic gets a clear draw on the outside for his local bow, and I expect him to appreciate the added ground on Saturday, too. Carmouche stays in the silks. 

Pro: Wore down Stradale to score at first asking; should appreciate extra furlong.

Con: Might not see as fast a pace; outside draw is a potential concern.

Best Bets for the 2025 American Pharoah Stakes

Read the full analysis here: Tipsheet: 2025 American Pharoah Stakes

Trainer Bob Baffert will saddle four of the six juveniles in the $300,000 American Pharoah S. (G1) at Santa Anita on Saturday. The Breeders’ Cup ‘Win and You’re In’ tilt will also offer a total of 21 qualifying points (10-5-3-2-1) to the top five finishers on the 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby challenge series contest. 

American Pharoah Picks

• #6 Kristofferson
• #1 Desert Gate
• #3 Plutarch

American Pharoah Wagers

• $20 win and place #6 Kristofferson
• $10 trifecta key 6 with 1,3

Top Horses for the 2025 American Pharoah

Read the full analysis here: Meet the Contenders: 2025 American Pharoah

#1 DESERT GATE (3-2): Best Pal S. (G3) winner comes off a fine effort in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) in his most recent appearance. Talented son of Omaha Beach, who is the first from the Baffert brigade, can run from on or off the pace and rates a big chance with even minor improvement on Saturday. Regular pilot Juan Hernandez retains the mount. 

Pro: Most accomplished of the Baffert quartet; strong second in Del Mar Futurity (G1).

Con: Few knocks against, other than the short price.

#2 INTREPIDO (6-1): The Jeff Mullins pupil drew off to a fine maiden win in his second try while coming home swiftly in the heat. The $385,000 two-year-old purchase has worked steadily in advance of this contest and can’t be ignored with Hector Berrios back in the irons. 

Pro: Broke better second out and won against a promising field.

Con: Has other speed to contend with if he flashes similar tactics this time.

#3 PLUTARCH (10-1): Interesting Baffert pupil ran a strong second on debut and also checked in second trying the green most recently. The well-bred son of Into Mischief will have blinkers back on and will be doing his best work in the lane with Kimura taking the reins. He could be a live longshot.

Pro: Second best in both starts, including Del Mar Juvenile Turf (G3).

Con: Off to a real slow start in stakes try, and can’t afford a repeat of that.

#4 CIVIL LIBERTY (5-1): Maiden from the barn of Doug O’Neill finished a solid third in the recent Del Mar Futurity (G1) and could grab a share with another step in the right direction in this tough spot. The son of freshman sire Independence Hall will stalk the pace early with Antonio Fresu on board. 

Pro: Placed against Brant in the first two starts and avoids him this time.

Con: Has several lengths to make up on Desert Gate off Futurity try.

#5 BALBOA (8-1): $875,000 son of Not This Time led to the turn for home before tiring in the Del Mar Futurity in his latest offering and will run with blinkers off for the initial time in this spot. The bay colt was a fine maiden winner at Del Mar two back, and he could be in the mix late if the equipment change aids him. He appears to be training well and will have Umberto Rispoli in the controls. 

Pro: Like Civil Liberty, both losses have come against the absent Brant. 

Con: Ran to longshot expectations in the Del Mar Futurity; this is not much easier.

#6 KRISTOFFERSON (9-5): Top pick left a good impression on me in his swift maiden victory on debut for Baffert. The $1.15 million son of Nyquist displayed heart in his score in his unveiling, and I think that he will appreciate the move to two turns in his second assignment. The Kentucky-bred will be in the clear throughout beneath Mike Smith. 

Pro: Prevailed after being hounded throughout in debut; earned nice fig.

Con: Sure to improve, though concedes experience to Baffert stablemates.

TwinSpires Jury

The TwinSpires Jury of Ashley Anderson, James Scully, and Darin Zoccali provides best bets for the Breeders' Futurity (G1) and Coolmore Turf Mile (G1) on Keeneland's opening weekend. They also give picks for the Frizette (G1) at Aqueduct.

Best Bets for the 2025 Breeders' Futurity

Read the full analysis here: Tipsheet: 2025 Breeders’ Futurity

A berth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) is on the line when a fantastic field of seven two-year-olds takes aim at the $650,000 Breeders’ Futurity (G1) at Keeneland on Saturday. The 2026 Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier will also reward the top five across the wire with qualifying points towards the Run for the Roses on a 10-5-3-2-1 basis. 

Breeders’ Futurity Picks

• #6 Ted Noffey
• #5 Litmus Test
• #1 Blackout Time

Breeders’ Futurity Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Ted Noffey
• $2 Superfecta: 6 with 1,5 with 1,5 with ALL
• $2 Superfecta: 6 with 1,5 with ALL with 1,5

Top Horses for the Breeders' Futurity

Read the full analysis here: Meet the Contenders: 2025 Breeders' Futurity

#1 BLACKOUT TIME (10-1): McPeek's pupil was a sprint second on debut prior to breaking his maiden for fun at Ellis Park most recently. The son of Not This Time gets the rail for his second route run and could benefit from saving ground throughout with Christian Torres in the silks. 

Pro: Won a key Ellis Park maiden easily; barn has a long history of success in this.

Con: Goes without regular rider Brian Hernandez, who is injured.

#2 BIG DOM (4-1): The Tom Amoss charge was a game winner in a swiftly run race on Travers Day at Saratoga in his unveiling and will stretch out for his stakes debut on this occasion. The Kentucky-bred son of McKinzie is bred to handle two turns and shows four solid morning drills in advance of his two-turn bow, as well. The contender will have Irad in the stirrups. 

Pro: Earned a decent speed figure winning Saratoga debut in a photo.

Con: Concedes racing experience to everyone else in the field.

#3 DICIASSETTE (20-1): The Mitole colt is two-for-two, led by a tally in the Proud Man S. on the Gulfstream Park dirt last time out. Patrick Biancone's trainee faces a tall task in his first run beyond six furlongs, however, and he would be something of a surprise with Jonathan Ocasio coming in to ride. 

Pro: Proven over dry and wet surfaces; enters unbeaten from two starts.

Con: Stakes win at Gulfstream on the slow side; major improvement needed.

#4 SPICE RUNNER (12-1): Iroquois S. (G3) victor has stepped forward as the distances have increased this campaign for conditioner Steve Asmussen. The full-brother to Grade 1 hero Gunite was game in running down a clear one beneath the Twin Spires last time, and another step in the right direction could see this one get a share with Tyler Gaffalione inheriting the mount. 

Pro: Grinded out a narrow win in Iroquois (G3); extra ground here will help.

Con: Faces a sterner test of class; Jose Ortiz sides elsewhere.

#5 LITMUS TEST (8-1): West Coast import ran an even one when fourth in the Del Mar Futurity (G1) and has appeal while making his route debut for dynamic two-year-old trainer Baffert. The $875,000 son of Nyquist gives the impression of a route horse who will take a step forward on Saturday, and the colt rates a winning chance in this spot with Prat taking the reins. 

Pro: Fourth to Brant in Del Mar Futurity (G1); California form might stack up well.

Con: Basically, he ran to expectations in his stakes debut and needs to find more.

#6 TED NOFFEY (4-5): Super impressive Hopeful S. (G1) romper is two-for-two and the clear one to beat in his toughest assignment to date. Spendthrift color bearer possesses early speed and a potent turn of foot, and the way he finished at seven furlongs most recently indicates that the added ground will be to his benefit on this occasion. John Velazquez comes in to retain the mount. 

Pro: Looked like a budding star in Hopeful (G1) romp; repeat very possible.

Con: Other than limited value, negatives are not readily apparent.

#7 EWING (9-2): Unbeaten speedster from the Casse shedrow was assigned the outside post for his local debut. Saratoga Special S. (G2) star has done little wrong from a pair of sharp wins to date while never being headed, and if the son of Knicks Go proves to be capable of handling two turns, then the chestnut will be a major player under the guidance of Jose Ortiz. 

Pro: Impressive debut followed by more workmanlike Saratoga Special (G2) win.

Con: Outside draw might hurt if he happens to break slow again.

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