How to bet the 2022 Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies

November 4th, 2022

The best two-year-old dirt fillies in North America will square off over 1 1/16 miles in Friday’s $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) at Keeneland, but the favorites aren’t necessarily unbeatable.

True, the Juvenile Fillies is stacked with talent. There have been four Grade 1 dirt races for two-year-old fillies contested this year, and the winners of all four races are entered at Keeneland. Nevertheless, Brisnet Speed ratings suggest the Juvenile Fillies is ripe for conquest by a longshot.

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Consider morning line favorite #10 Chocolate Gelato (7-2), who won the Frizette (G1) at Aqueduct last month. The Frizette has produced four of the last five Juvenile Fillies winners, but the 84 Brisnet Speed rating Chocolate Gelato received for her one-length victory isn’t particularly flashy.

Much the same can be said of #3 And Tell Me Nolies (8-1). Her resume is decorated; she enters off victories in the Del Mar Debutante (G1) and Chandelier (G2). But those triumphs produced sub-90 Brisnet Speed ratings of 86 and 89.

#5 Wonder Wheel (5-1) ran a bit faster when defeating #7 Chop Chop (4-1) by a nose in the Alcibiades (G1) at Keeneland last month; both fillies received Brisnet Speed ratings of 91. But that number still seems a little light for a championship-defining race like the Juvenile Fillies.

These modest Brisnet Speed ratings suggest a longshot won’t need much improvement to vie for victory in the Juvenile Fillies. That’s why we’re going to think outside the box and support #2 You’re My Girl (10-1).

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You’re My Girl ran powerfully in her debut against New York-bred rivals at Saratoga, pressing the early pace in a six-furlong maiden special weight before drawing off to dominate by 14 1/2 lengths. Then You’re My Girl stepped up in class and distance for the Frizette, where she carved out the pace over a sloppy track before battling on to finish second by one length against Chocolate Gelato. Spinaway S. (G1) winner #13 Leave No Trace (20-1) settled for third place, 2 3/4 lengths behind You’re My Girl.

In the Frizette, You’re My Girl arguably raced over a slower part of the racetrack than Chocolate Gelato, making her gallant defeat all the more impressive. If you like Chocolate Gelato as the morning line favorite, you have to love You’re My Girl as a live longshot under Hall of Fame jockey John Velazquez.

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At 10-1, a win bet on You’re My Girl will be our first play. We'll make it a $10 variety in order to capitalize on the TwinSpires Breeders' Cup $10 Money Back promotion—bettors who opt in will receive up to $10 back on their first win bet in each race if their horse settles for second or third place.

We’ll also key You're My Girl over Chocolate Gelato, Chop Chop, and #8 Atomically (12-1) in the exacta. The latter filly enters off back-to-back blowout victories against Florida-bred competition at Gulfstream Park, and her latest victory produced a 92 Brisnet Speed rating.

  • $10 to win on #2 You’re My Girl
  • $5 Exacta: 2 with 7,8,10 ($15)
    Total: $25

Good luck!