How to bet the 2023 Keswick Stakes

August 3rd, 2023

A big field of 11 two-year-old fillies will speed five panels on the Colonial Downs dirt in Saturday’s $150,000 Keswick S. The affair has a lot of speed signed on for the race, and I will side with a late runner as a key in my wagers.

The John Salzman-conditioned #8 Low Mileage (8-1) graduated with a sharp late run at Laurel Park in May, and she then came off the layoff to grab second-place honors in a subsequent allowance tilt at the same venue. By Mineshaft, the juvenile filly ran into a nice vixen in her most recent showing but did show improvement, and I expect her to take another step forward in this spot.

Low Mileage came out of her latest showing in good order, it seems, as she blitzed a bullet half-mile in preparation for this dash. The field features numerous contenders that will flash early foot, so the bay will likely have a lot of tired legs in front of her as she commences her best run approaching the turn for home. Jevian Toledo will pilot the Virginia-bred.

#10 Carmelina (5-2) appears to be the one to catch and beat for trainer Butch Reid. The daughter of Maximus Mischief led throughout in a dominant tally at Parx on debut, and she then led to the turn for home before tiring late in the Schuylerville S. (G3) at Saratoga in her most recent endeavor. Purchased for $44,000 as a weanling, the April foal draws outside of most of the pace in the heat and will be in the clear throughout with Mychel Sanchez in the stirrups. The Keystone State-bred would not be a surprise.

#1 Beachfront Breeze (6-1) was assigned a tricky rail post in the big cast, but I feel that she can overcome it for Andrew Simoff. By lively young sire Coal Front, the New Jersey-bred lass shows a pair of morning drills in advance of her stakes bow for a conditioner who does good work with the youngsters. The May foal will be saving ground every step of the way beneath Charlie Marquez.

I will also dabble with fine debut vixen #7 Ran Out Of Trainer (7-2) and wild card #11 Mainstream Sellout (30-1) in the vertical gimmicks.

Keswick Wagers

$10 win and place: #8 Low Mileage ($20)

$5 exacta key box: 8 with 1,10 ($20)

$.20-cent superfecta: 8,10 with 8,10 with 1,7,11 with all ($9.60)