How to bet the San Felipe, Gotham, and Tampa Bay Derby

The action on the Road to the Kentucky Derby is heating up in a big way.

The first Saturday in March isn’t quite as exciting as the first Saturday in May, but it’s pretty close. Three major Kentucky Derby (G1) prep races are on the agenda at tracks across the country, and there is a strong chance we’ll see the Derby winner in action this week.

Let’s put together picks and plays for all three races.

Aqueduct, Race 9: Gotham Stakes (G3, 5:07 p.m. ET)

This one-turn mile is loaded with speed, which should lend an advantage to morning-line favorite, #3 Highly Motivated (8-5). The Chad Brown trainee scored an impressive victory in the 6 1/2-furlong Nyquist S. at Keeneland last fall, when he defeated a deep field by 4 1/4 lengths in the track-record time of 1:14.99.

Brown strikes at a 29% rate with runners returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, and the 102 Brisnet Speed rating Highly Motivated posted at Keeneland is easily the highest figure in the Gotham field.

But don’t sleep on the chances of Highly Motivated’s stablemate, #5 Crowded Trade (9-2).

After he broke slowly in his debut, sprinting six furlongs at Aqueduct, Crowded Trade unleashed a sustained rally from behind a slow pace to get up and win by a length. The 100 Brisnet Late Pace rating he received is the only triple-digit figure in the Gotham field.

Let’s play exacta and trifecta tickets, with Highly Motivated and Crowded Trade boxed to finish first and second.

$6 exacta box: 3,5 ($12)
$2 trifecta: 3,5 with 3,5 with 2,4,7 ($12)
Total: $24

Tampa Bay Downs, Race 11: Tampa Bay Derby (G2, 5:25 p.m. ET)

#3 Candy Man Rocket (2-1) is the favorite, after he employed pace-tracking tactics to win the Sam F. Davis (G3) over the same track and 1 1/16-mile distance as the Tampa Bay Derby. But the son of Candy Ride weakened down the homestretch, and Saturday he’ll meet a field that contains a lot of speed.

I’m concerned Candy Man Rocket will get sucked into a hot pace and fail to see out the distance.

I’ll take a shot with #10 Helium (6-1), who went undefeated in two starts over the synthetic track at Woodbine last fall. A flashy winner of the Display S., Helium is tractable and should be able to avoid the unfamiliar dirt kickback after a break from an outside post.

His half-sister, Emilia’s Moon, was a Group 1 winner on dirt in Peru, so the surface switch shouldn’t be a big issue, and trainer Mark Casse is winning at a 24% rate at Tampa this winter.

At 6-1, a win bet on Helium will be our main play. But we’ll also bet him over Candy Man Rocket in an exacta.

$20 to win on #10 Helium
$5 exacta: 10 with 3
Total: $25

Santa Anita, Race 6: San Felipe Stakes (G2, 5:45 p.m. ET)

#1 Life Is Good (4-5) has never been headed into two starts for trainer Bob Baffert.

The son of Into Mischief threw down flashy Brisnet Speed ratings when he romped on debut and when he cruised to a comfortable victory the Sham (G3). He has trained up a storm in preparation for the San Felipe and will be difficult to catch if he runs to his workouts.

Stablemate #3 Medina Spirit (7-2), a rallying runner-up in the Sham, can round out the exacta. The son of Protonico subsequently overcome a challenging trip to win the Robert B. Lewis (G3), when he carved out a blazing pace over a slow track and tenaciously turned back two late runners to score by a neck.

Medina Spirit broke from the rail in the Lewis and was forced to adopt frontrunning tactics, so the draw outside Life Is Good in the San Felipe should set the stage for a more relaxed, tracking trip.

#2 Dream Shake (5-1), #5 The Great One (4-1), and #7 Roman Centurian (8-1) can vie to finish in the trifecta and superfecta.

$5 trifecta: 1 with 3 with 2,5,7 ($15)
$5 trifecta: 1 with 5 with 3 ($5)
$2 superfecta: 1 with 3 with 5 with 2,7 ($4)
$2 superfecta: 1 with 3 with 2,7 with 5 ($4)
$2 superfecta: 1 with 5 with 3 with 2,7 ($4)
Total: $32

Good luck!