How to bet With, and Against, Atone in the Arlington Million

August 10th, 2023

A well-matched field of 11 will travel 1 1/4 miles on the Colonial Downs outer turf in Saturday’s Arlington Million S. (G1). The slight morning-line choice is the Mike Maker-trained #4 Atone (7-2), who earned his biggest win to date when eclipsing the Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) at Gulfstream Park in January.

Atone didn’t fire two back at Fair Grounds, but he put in a game showing in the Dinner Party S. (G3) at Pimlico most recently when leading late before ultimately finishing one-length shy of top honors. The six-year-old son of super sire Into Mischief has proven to be capable of running from up close early, or from well off of the tempo, with good results in advance of his first try at 10 furlongs.

The Kentucky-bred bay is something of a mystery at the distance, but if he takes to the stretch out, then he will be dangerous inside the final furlong with Kendrick Carmouche in the stirrups.

Chad Brown’s #9 Adhamo (10-1) can be very good on his best day and rates a big chance while making his 2023 debut. The European import eclipsed the 2022 United Nations S. (G1) at Monmouth for his biggest stateside score to date, and he has proven to be able to fire big off the shelf, as well. The Intello five-year-old will be running at arguably his best distance on Saturday, and having Flavien Prat in the controls is always a positive thing.

The Juddmonte homebred #3 Set Piece (6-1) has been essentially a miler for the past year and intrigues on the move to 1 1/4 miles while making his local bow. Trained by Brad Cox, the seven-year-old son of Dansili is a one-run closer with a powerful turn of foot, and he might have less to do turning for home with the pace likely to be more moderate with the added ground in the fray. Florent Geroux retains the mount and will save ground to the top of the lane aboard the talented gelding.

Grade 3 victor #8 Catnip (8-1) graduated on this lawn last campaign and has put in four excellent efforts in succession in 2023 for conditioner Mike Stidham. The Kitten’s Joy gelding comes off a big runner-up run in the United Nations and will find the cutback in trip to his liking in this venture. The tactical four-year-old will always be forwardly placed with Brian Hernandez Jr. inheriting the ride.

Atone – With

$10 trifecta: key 4 with 3,8,9 ($60)

Atone – Against

$30 win: #9 Adhamo ($30)

$5 exacta key box: 9 with 3,4,8 ($30)