How to bet With, and Against, Nice as Pie in the Serena’s Song

March 29th, 2024

Eight sophomore fillies will aim to upset Valdale S. romper #8 Nice as Pie (4-5) in Saturday’s $125,000 Serena’s Song S. at Turfway Park. The six-furlong dash attracted a few fillies that I feel have a chance at knocking off the prohibitive choice, who has been very impressive but also has slightly decreasing Brisnet Speed numbers, which I’m never a fan of. 

Nice As Pie – Against

  • $25 win $4 J Rivers ($25)
  • $1 superfecta 3,4 with 3,4,8 with 3,4,8 all ($24)

Nice as Pie – With

  • $30 exacta 8 with 4 ($30)
  • $12 exacta 8 with 3 ($12)

Races with a short-priced morning line favorite in it offer some good opportunities for bettors, in the win mutuels, vertical exotics, and also the multi-race wagers. So for those looking for an upset, I’d suggest giving #4 J Rivers (5-1) a very long look. Trained by Arnaud Delacour, the dark bay daughter of Distorted Humor is 2-for-2 at the meeting and has improved her Speed figure in each lifetime try to date. 

The improving filly has been visually impressive in her victories and will be up to the task in her stakes debut, in my opinion. She lands in a field with at least three foes that will aim for the early advantage, and the fast and contested pace will play to her strengths. Luan Machado stays in the silks. 

I also feel that we haven’t seen the best from second choice #3 Sweet Gal of Mine (3-1). The Mike McCarthy pupil led throughout to break her maiden in her first local appearance most recently, but she has run well from off the pace before and could tuck in behind the leaders and get first run at the top of the stretch. Gerardo Corrales will pilot the Dialed In homebred.

For those in the corner of Nice as Pie, who will be tough to knock off with anything close to her best effort, I would take a stand on one or two horses underneath her and focus on the exacta, while also singling her in any multi-race action. 

Good Luck!