Price horses of interest on 2025 Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe Day

With six contentious Breeders’ Cup Challenge races on tap at ParisLongchamp on Sunday, it’s mandatory to probe for value and try to find the right overlays. 

Here’s a prime contender at an attractive price for the five Thoroughbred Group 1s on the undercard, along with an “each-way” stab with a big longshot in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) itself.

Race 1, 7:40 a.m. ET: Prix Marcel Boussac (G1)

#5 Esna (10-1) lacks the stakes experience of the obvious players in this “Win and You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1), but the Brian Meehan pupil has loads of upside in her first serious class test. 

By hot freshman sire Starman, she’s a close maternal relative of Meehan’s ill-fated Jayarebe, a Royal Ascot hero who also won the Prix Dollar (G2) on Arc weekend last year. Esna was a promising second on debut to the highly-regarded Deedaydiva at Sandown, and she came right back to dismiss colts at the same venue despite still racing greenly. 

Although it’s a big step up to this level, juveniles are a moving target at this time of year. Esna traveled like a potentially very smart performer who can hold her own here, and she’s proven on soft ground. 

Race 2, 8:15 a.m. ET: Prix Jean-Luc Lagardere (G1)

Godolphin’s homebred #4 Time to Turn (6-1) was last seen landing the Pat Eddery S. at Ascot, a race that also factored on the resumes of Lagardere winners Angel Bleu (2021) and Rosallion (2023). Time to Turn is even bred on the same cross as Angel Bleu, as a son of Dark Angel and a Galileo mare. 

Angel Bleu and Rosallion went on to test Group waters in advance of the Lagardere, unlike Time to Turn. But there’s not much on paper between him and familiar foe #6 A Bit of Spirit (10-1), who did make the grade when battling home in the Solario (G3) last out.

Time to Turn was arguably more decisive in the Eddery than the narrow margin over A Bit of Spirit implies, and my suspicion is that he’s progressed quite a bit in the lead-up to their rematch here. 

It might be a hint that Charlie Appleby has thrown Time to Turn into this spot, a “Win and You’re In” for the Juvenile Turf (G1). I was a fan of Time to Turn’s “uncle,” Ivawood, a brilliant juvenile who placed in a pair of mile classics at three. 

Race 3, 8:50 a.m. ET: Prix de l’Abbaye de Longchamp (G1)

This about five-furlong scramble can turn into a lottery even in times of divisional clarity. This year, the sprinting division has been clear as mud, as they’ve all taken turns beating each other. The variables of post positions, ground conditions, and luck in running will be determinative again in this “Win and You’re In” for the Turf Sprint (G1).

To narrow the 19-horse field down, my inclination is to look for a fairly consistent operator who’s knocking on the door this term, landed a decent draw, and can produce a big effort on some degree of softish going.

 #12 She’s Quality (15-1) fits those parameters well enough, although she wouldn’t want the ground to be really soft. Long touted by trainer Jack Davison, the Acclamation filly placed in four straight earlier this season, threw in a clunker at York, but recently regrouped with a staying-on fourth in the Flying Five (G1) on yielding ground. 

Combined with her near-miss in the King George (G2) on an easier surface at Glorious Goodwood, the Flying Five suggests that she is becoming more ground-adaptable. She’s eligible to hit the board with a return to her best, and if she exceeds it, she’d have an upset chance. 

Race 5, 10:05 a.m. ET: Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1)

As my in-depth Arc storylines analysis reveals, you can make a case for many competitors in this time-honored prize, whose €5 million purse is just one dimension of its prestige. Indeed, its ramifications for the bloodstock world are why geldings are excluded, or else we’d be discussing the merits of Calandagan, in this “Win and You’re In” for the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1). 

I was bullish about Japanese champion #15 Croix du Nord (9-1) until he got marooned in post 17. Even if I remain personally loyal, I can’t in good conscience endorse him unreservedly now. A similar caveat applies to Japan’s #6 Byzantine Dream (20-1), who wasn’t helped by drawing post 15. 

Then there are the logical contenders who ran well in last year’s Arc. Rather than rely too heavily on them, I’m more interested in the ones with form around them, or collateral to them. 

#9 Kalpana (10-1) is twice the price of last year’s runner-up, #10 Aventure (5-1), even though she has stronger collateral form via Calandagan. Both were runner-up to the world-class gelding in Group 1s, but Kalpana got closer. 

Aventure was arguably more primed to win the Prix Vermeille (G1) than sophomore filly #18 Gezora (10-1), who ran a fantastic second to set herself up for Sunday. 

Without any diehard opinions in an open-looking race, perhaps the best strategy is to include a wildly overpriced longshot and hope that he runs up to his credentials.

#2 White Birch (60-1) might be overlooked because he’s based off the beaten path in County Cork, his prerequisite for rain-affected ground can keep him idle for a while, and it’s been two years since he’s tried 1 1/2 miles. But the John Murphy trainee has been a high-class performer throughout his career, with few blips on his resume. It wouldn’t be a surprise if he gets involved on Sunday with Dylan Browne McMonagle, soon to be crowned Ireland’s champion jockey. 

Third in the 2023 Derby (G1) at Epsom to Auguste Rodin and King of Steel, White Birch reverted in trip in early 2024 and swept all three starts. After dominating Auguste Rodin in the Tattersalls Gold Cup (G1) at the Curragh, he was sidelined for virtually a year. 

In his May 5 comeback, White Birch nearly upset last year’s Arc third, #5 Los Angeles (20-1), in the Mooresbridge (G2). White Birch was an unlucky fourth in his title defense in the Tattersalls Gold Cup, buried on the inside at the crucial time, and checked in behind Los Angeles, Anmaat, and Kalpana.

Waiting for the autumn ground, White Birch didn’t resurface until the Irish Champion (G1). Leopardstown dried out more than initially anticipated, but he worked his way into fifth behind the imperious Delacroix and old foe Anmaat. The Irish Champion has been a successful tune-up for the Arc in the past.

Race 6, 10:50 a.m. ET: Prix de l’Opera (G1)

#3 Tamfana (7-1) flopped versus males in the one-mile Lockinge (G1) over a lightning-quick course at Newbury. Going about 1 1/4 miles on a kinder surface here, in a “Win and You’re In” for the Filly & Mare Turf (G1), will make all the difference. Unlucky in a pair of classics last season, the David Menuisier filly earned a deserved Group 1 when toppling Inspiral in the 2024 Sun Chariot (G1). Tamfana has course form too, as a creditable fourth to Arc contender Sosie in last year’s Grand Prix de Paris (G1) at a distance beyond her. 

Race 7, 11:25 a.m. ET: Prix de la Foret (G1)

A well-known path to the Breeders’ Cup Mile (G1) now receives “Win and You’re In” status. #12 Maranoa Charlie (4-1) is trading at closer to 6-1 or 7-1 in the overseas markets, and given the competitive nature of the 16-horse field, chances are he’ll end up nearer to that price than the morning line. The Christopher Head sophomore has missed narrowly in the Prix Jean Prat (G1) and City of York (G1) (versus elders), but a return to this venue could get him over the top.

Successful in the course-and-distance Prix Paul de Moussac (G3) back in June, Maranoa Charlie is in demand as a stallion prospect after the untimely passing of his sire, Wootton Bassett. The multiple Group 3 winner showed flashes of brilliance at two, with some idiosyncrasies, and a Group 1 trophy would mark the fulfillment of his early promise.