Keeler Johnson’s picks and plays of Sept. 19

September 19th, 2023

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Tuesday, Sept. 19 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Assiniboia Downs, along with a ticket for the $5,188 Pick 5 carryover at Presque Isle Downs.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

  • Trifecta Tuesday: Receive a 15% bonus on trifecta winnings excluding stake amount; up to $25 per day.
  • Summerside 10x Points: Opt in and receive 10x reward points on all Summerside wagers (excluding show bets) on Tuesdays from Sept. 12 through Oct. 24.

Picks and Plays

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs, 4:34 p.m. ET)

#6 Quarrymen (9-5) ran strongly in his debut sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs over this track and class level, flashing early speed before battling on to finish second by a neck. The winner, Epic Battle, returned to run second in a deep $100,000 allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs.

With a little luck, Quarrymen will encounter an easier field in his second start and deliver victory over #2 Beyond Stoked (9-2) and #7 Ox Tap (8-1).


  • #6 Quarrymen (9-5)
  • #2 Beyond Stoked (9-2)
  • #7 Ox Tap (8-1)


  • $18 to win on #6 Quarrymen
  • $6 Exacta: 6 with 2,7 ($12)
    Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 9: Maiden Special Weight (one mile, 6:38 p.m. ET)

This field of Indiana-bred juveniles hasn’t come up especially deep, so morning line favorite #3 Dattts Life (1-1) is a logical choice. He’s cracked the trifecta in all three of his starts over this track and class level, including a pair of one-mile contests.

Let’s try betting Dattts Life over first-time starter #2 Prophet Obadiah (15-1) in a cold exacta. Prophet Obadiah is trained by George Leonard III, who has gone 2-for-4 (50%) with horses debuting over one mile or farther in recent years.


  • #3 Dattts Life (1-1)
  • #2 Prophet Obadiah (15-1)
  • #6 Tremor (8-1)


  • $15 Exacta: 3 with 2

Assiniboia Downs: Race 3: Winnipeg Futurity (six furlongs, 9:25 p.m. ET)

#4 Canyouhearmerunnin (1-2) has won all three of his starts by daylight margins, including a pair of sprint stakes at Assiniboia Downs. He’s hands-down the horse to beat while tackling another sprint stakes, especially when you consider how he’s already beaten three of his four Tuesday rivals.

Let’s bet Canyouhearmerunnin on top of a superfecta using stakes winner #5 Justlemmeatem (4-1), debut winner #2 Happy Hour (6-1), and the multiple stakes-placed #3 Kontie (7-1) for the minor awards.


  • #4 Canyouhearmerunnin (1-2)
  • #5 Justlemmeatem (4-1)
  • #2 Happy Hour (6-1)


  • $10 Superfecta: 4 with 2,5 with 2,5 with 3 ($20)

Carryover Watch

Presque Isle Downs: Race 1: $5,811 Pick 5 carryover (3:00 p.m. ET)

Feel like chasing a non-jackpot Pick 5 carryover this Tuesday? Then you’ll be happy to hear Presque Isle Downs has a suitable prize pool on the table. The 50-cent Early Pick 5 has tossed up a $5,811 carryover.

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence and assemble a ticket for less than $20:

Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on Tapeta)

#6 Dark Dahlia (2-1) has placed second a couple of times over this track, distance, and class level, but she’s not the only viable win threat. #4 Quiero Dinero (5-2) is adding Lasix after putting up a respectable Brisnet Speed rating when second in a $25,000 maiden claimer at Presque Isle last month, and grass campaigner #3 Every Time (3-1) can’t be underestimated while trying Tapeta for the first time.

Race 2: $6,250 Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta)

#4 Lady Yellen (3-1) has cracked the trifecta in three of her four starts at Presque Isle, all against $12,500 and $25,000 claiming competition. She’s a logical win contender, but so is #2 Stellarator (7-2), who is dropping in class and switching from turf to Tapeta. Nor can we ignore tried-and-true $6,250 claiming competitor #1 Dominant Stranger (4-1), whose recent Brisnet Speed ratings are highest than those belonging to Lady Yellen.

Race 3: $13,500 Starter Optional Claiming (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta)

#3 Red Pixie (9-5) has won her last five Presque Isle starts by a minimum of 2 1/4 lengths. She romped in a one-mile contest over this track and class level on Aug. 15, and a repeat of that effort will make her tough to beat. We’ll make Red Pixie a single.

Race 4: Maiden Special Weight (one mile and 70 yards on Tapeta)

#4 Aleman (2-1) is a logical favorite after finishing second in his debut over this track, distance, and class level. But for backup, we’ll use #1 Bee Well (5-2), third in a $40,000 maiden claimer racing 1 1/16 miles on turf at Saratoga last month.

Race 5: $25,000 Claiming (six furlongs on Tapeta)

#4 Shannon (8-5) threw down a sharp 78 Brisnet Speed rating when second in a Sept. 4 allowance over this track and distance. That’s five points higher than the par winning number for Tuesday’s conditions, so dropping down the class ladder should make Shannon tough to beat. That said, we’ll also use #3 Valiant Victoria (4-1), who posted an 83 Brisnet Speed rating when easily crushing a $25,000 maiden claimer at Presque Isle by seven lengths.

  • 50-cent Pick 5: 3,4,6 with 1,2,4 with 3 with 1,4 with 3,4 ($18)

Good luck!