Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for April 27

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares his picks and plays for Tuesday, April 27 at Indiana Grand and Churchill Downs, plus thoughts on vulnerable favorites in Churchill’s $5,348 Pick 6 jackpot carryover.

Before you place your wagers, be sure to opt in to today’s special offers from TwinSpires, including the “Build Your Indiana Derby Day Bankroll,” “Kentucky Derby Week Money Back,” and “Midweek Bet Back” promotions.

Picks and plays

Churchill Downs, Race 2: $40,000 claiming (seven furlongs, 1:14 p.m. ET)

#6 Rock Star Parking (7-2) hasn’t run quite as fast as the favorites, from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, but I think she has room for improvement.

The daughter of Upstart broke her maiden in a $150,000 maiden claiming race over this track and distance last fall, and her two subsequent defeats have come running long against allowance company at Fair Grounds.

The cut back to seven furlongs, off a three-month freshening, should help Rock Star Parking take a step forward under hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione, who won three of his six starts on opening day at Churchill Downs.

Rock Star Parking has enough tactical speed to be involved from the outset in this small field, and the outside draw sets the stage for a clean trip.

Thanks to the Kentucky Derby Week Money Back offer, we can place a $10 win bet on Rock Star Parking and get our money back if she finishes second.

$10 to win on #6 Rock Star Parking

Churchill Downs, Race 8: Isaac Murphy Marathon S. (1 1/2 miles, 4:22 p.m. ET)

Several of the entrants in this 1 1/2-mile marathon have previously won at the distance, including the speedy #2 Lone Rock (8-5), an easy allowance winner at Oaklawn Park 16 days ago.

But I’m going to take a chance with #4 Portos (6-1), with Gaffalione aboard.

Portos has never run farther than 1 3/16 miles, but the son of Tapit is bred for stamina and has always struck me as a grinding type who will relish the stretch out to 1 1/2 miles. Trainer Todd Pletcher excels with long-distance dirt horses and has turned horses like Marconi and Moretti (both with form similar to Portos) into genuine stakes stars.

Portos enters off a decisive, 5 1/4-length victory in a 1 1/8-mile allowance at Keeneland, so he is clearly in good form. I’m optimistic the trip will help Portos elevate his game.

To take advantage of the Kentucky Derby Week Money Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Portos, then play him over Lone Rock in a cold exacta.

$10 to win on #4 Portos
$5 exacta: 4 with 2
Total: $15

Indiana Grand, Race 9: Maiden special weight (six furlongs, 6:33 p.m. ET)

#9 Hurry On Out (6-1) posted competitive Brisnet Speed ratings when he finished second in a pair of maiden special weight sprints at Mahoning Valley.

The stretch-running son of Flat Out will add blinkers and pick up hot jockey Edgar Morales for his Indiana Grand debut, both positive signs.

Trainer Rey Hernandez is off to a hot start at Indiana Grand, with two wins from three starts to begin the meet. One of his winners was a 32-1 longshot that shipped in from Mahoning, so don’t be surprised if Hurry On Out outruns expectations Tuesday.

To take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet and get our money back if Hurry On Out comes in second. Then, we’ll key him over logical favorite #5 National Road (7-5) in the exacta.

$10 to win on #9 Hurry On Out
$5 exacta: 9 with 5
Total: $15

Carryover watch: Churchill Downs, $5,348 Pick 6 jackpot

One of the best jackpot-style Pick 6 wagers to play on a regular basis is the Derby City 6 at Churchill Downs. Formerly known as the Single 6, the 20-cent wager divides 90% of its daily pool (after takeout) among winning bettors and sets aside just 10% to grow the jackpot.

If you can construct a unique winning ticket, you’ll win 100% of the daily pool, plus the jackpot carryover. So why not play the $5,348 Derby City 6 carryover on Wednesday? A competitive sequence, stuffed with large fields, is on tap, and if you can beat a few favorites along the way, the payoff should be well worth your investment.

To help you get started, we’ve gone through the sequence and identified a pair of morning-line favorites who seem vulnerable at short prices.

Race 6: #6 Prairie Wings (3-1)

Prairie Wings is a logical contender in this one-mile grass allowance. She hasn’t missed the exacta in six starts and has posted excellent Brisnet Speed ratings, in the 81-92 range.

But Prairie Wings suffers from second-itis and has occupied the runner-up spot in five of her six starts. Her lone victory came on dirt, and she hasn’t run since October.

It seems there are a fair number of obstacles between Prairie Wings and the winner’s circle, which makes her tough to trust as the favorite in a full field.

Race 7: #4 Shoplifted (7-2)

A son of hot sire Into Mischief, Shoplifted is easily the most accomplished runner in this six-furlong optional-claiming allowance. He won the Remington Springboard Mile as a juvenile and placed in multiple Grade 1 sprints as a three-year-old last year.

But Shoplifted hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since December of 2019, and he misfired in the Carter H. (G1) at Aqueduct earlier this month, when he faded to finish last, by a wide margin.

A deep closer, Shoplifted is always at the mercy of the pace, but there isn’t a ton of speed in Tuesday’s field. A spot on the board is within reach, but a speedier type, like #1 Verb (4-1) or #8 Noren (12-1), may steal top honors.

Good luck!