Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for May 10

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares his picks and plays for Monday, May 10 at Indiana Grand and Will Rogers Downs, along with a pair of potential singles in Indiana Grand’s $27,715 Pick 6 carryover.

Before you bet, remember to opt in to the TwinSpires Build Your Indiana Derby Day Bankroll offer. Wager at least $1,000 (excluding show wagers) at Indiana Grand in April, May, and/or June and receive $30 to wager at Indiana Grand on Indiana Derby day, July 7. Bet $1,000 at Indiana Grand in all three months and receive $150.

Picks and plays

Indiana Grand, Race 2: $5,000 claiming (one mile and 70 yards, 2:56 p.m. ET)

There’s hardly any speed in this two-turn dirt route, which figures to compromise morning-line favorite #2 Competitive Fire (7-5).

She appears formidable, after she cracked the trifecta in three straight races against $10,000 and $12,500 claiming company at Oaklawn Park. But Competitive Fire is a deep closer with one win from 17 starts, and against Monday’s field, she isn’t a standout in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings.

We’ll side with #5 Carry On (6-1), a lightly raced three-year-old with just six starts under her belt.

Two starts back, she flashed tactical speed in a 6 1/2-furlong, $5,000 claiming sprint at Turfway Park, where she pressed the pace and finished second for a competitive 76 Brisnet Speed rating.

Carry On will add Lasix for Monday’s test, and if she shakes loose on an easy lead on the stretch out around two turns, she can spring a surprise for jockey/trainer duo Emmanuel Esquivel and Aaron West. Together, they’ve gone three wins from five starts over the last two months.

We’ll bet Carry On to win and play her over Competitive Fire in a cold exacta.

$15 to win on #5 Carry One
$5 exacta: 5 with 2
Total: $20

Will Rogers Downs, Race 3: $5,000 Claiming (six furlongs, 2:56 p.m. ET)

#2 Ronald Dale (4-1) has stepped up his game since he arrived at Will Rogers Downs.

Under the care of hot trainer Alan Williams (a 28% winner at the meet), Ronald Dale rallied to victory in a $7,500 claiming race for non-winners of two races lifetime, then showed tenacity to prevail by a head in a $7,500 event for Oklahoma-bred non-winners of three races lifetime.

Ronald Dale looks like a good fit for Monday’s $5,000 class level. He has the tactical speed to be prominent from the outset, along with the Brisnet Speed ratings to challenge for victory under jockey Ronald Richard. Richard has won at a 33% rate when he teams up with Williams.

We’ll bet Ronald Dale to win, then play him over the capable allowance competitor #4 Shipman’s Song (7-5) in a straight exacta.

$15 to win on #2 Ronald Dale
$5 exacta: 2 with 4
Total: $20

Will Rogers Downs, Race 6: Handicap (1 1/16 miles, 4:20 p.m. ET)

#4 Hunka Burning Love (4-5) was a win machine in 2020, with four stakes among his eight victories for the season. But the seven-year-old son of Into Mischief has gone winless in three starts this year, and he took a step backward with a distant third in a one-mile allowance at Lone Star Park nine days ago.

If Hunka Burning Love is regressing, #3 Guided Missile (7-5) can steal the show. The son of Tapit has won both starts since he transferred to the care of trainer Boyd Caster at Will Rogers Downs, where he employed pace-tracking tactics to decisively win allowance and handicap races. In the latter event, held over one mile April 19, Guided Missile finished strongly to win by 2 1/4 lengths, with a career-best 91 Brisnet Speed rating.

Jockey Curtis Kimes has seven wins from 16 starts when he has teamed with Caster over the last two months, so Guided Missile looks strong from a connections standpoint.

Let’s bet him to win and play him over #5 Chocolateicecream (8-1) in a small exacta.

$20 to win on #3 Guided Missile
$5 exacta: 3 with 5
Total: $25

Carryover watch

Indiana Grand, Race 3: $27,715 Pick 6 Carryover

The racing week at Indiana Grand kicks off with a $27,715 jackpot carryover in the Straight Fire 6 pool. Since short-priced runners have been dominant at Indiana Grand this meet (favorites won five of eight Thoroughbred races Thursday), let’s highlight a couple logical singles in Monday’s Straight Fire 6 sequence.

Race 3: #3 Lookin At Justice (2-1)

The recent form of Lookin At Justice has been muddied by a couple disappointing runs against open company, but the son of Atreides hasn’t missed the exacta in three starts against Indiana-breds. The Genaro Garcia trainee dominated the one-mile and 70-yard Indiana Futurity over this track in November, when he led all the way to crush his opponents by 6 1/4 lengths.

Garcia has been hot at Indiana Grand, where he has won at a 24% rate. He has won six of his 12 starts when he teamed up with jockey Marcelino Pedroza over the last two weeks.

Lookin At Justice got a prep run under his belt when in a six-furlong allowance sprint at Oaklawn last month and figures to be tough on the stretch back out over one mile at Indiana Grand.

Race 6: #1 Golden Voice (1-1)

Only two of the seven fillies in this 7 1/2-furlong grass race have won on turf, which stamps #1 Golden Voice (1-1) as the filly to beat. Trained by Mike Maker, the daughter of Golden Horn broke her maiden racing one mile at Kentucky Downs last summer, before she competed in the Selima S. at Pimlico and the Chelsey Flower S. at Belmont Park.

A drop down in class at Indiana Grand should make Golden Voice difficult to defeat. She brings strong Brisnet Speed ratings, and Maker wins at a solid 18% rate with horses who return from layoffs of 90 days or more, which cements Golden Voice as a logical single at a short price.

Good luck!