Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for May 11

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares his picks and plays for Tuesday, May 11 at Indiana Grand and Parx Racing, including a trio of $10 win bets capitalizing on the TwinSpires Midweek Bet Back offer.

Keeler is also sharing thoughts on vulnerable favorites in the $38,221 Pick 6 carryover up for grabs at Indiana Grand.

Before you bet, remember to opt in to the TwinSpires Build Your Indiana Derby Day Bankroll offer. Wager at least $1,000 (excluding show wagers) at Indiana Grand in April, May, and/or June and receive $30 to wager at Indiana Grand on Indiana Derby day, July 7. Bet $1,000 at Indiana Grand in all three months and receive $150.

Picks and plays

Indiana Grand, Race 5: $40,000 allowance/optional claiming (five furlongs on turf, 4:29 p.m. ET)

#4 Carimba (4-5) is the odds-on favorite for high-percentage trainer Wesley Ward, who has compiled a 5-3-2 record from 15 starts at Indiana Grand since 2018. The three-year-old daughter of Kantharos went undefeated in two starts as a juvenile, when she wired maiden and allowance races over the Indiana Grand turf course with ease and authority.

But Carimba will face a tougher task Tuesday. Not only is she returning from a long layoff, but she will step outside her age group for the first time, and she isn’t a standout in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings. Five of her seven rivals have run faster figures.

With these obstacles in mind, #5 Poseidon’s Passion (12-1) is an intriguing alternative. Stakes-placed on dirt at Tampa Bay Downs, Poseidon’s Passion has three wins from seven starts sprinting five furlongs on turf, including a two-length allowance score at Indiana Grand last summer. The four-year-old filly has already run four times this season, so fitness shouldn’t be an issue. I’m optimistic she’ll fire a big shot.

$10 to win on #5 Poseidon’s Passion
$5 exacta: 5 with 4
Total: $15

Indiana Grand, Race 6: Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs, 5 p.m. ET)

#6 Forwhomthebelltoll (8-5) is the morning-line favorite for hot trainer Stephen Fosdick, who has two wins from six starts at the Indiana Grand meet. But Forwhomthebelltoll has done his best work running long, so a 5 1/2-furlong sprint off a 6 1/2-month layoff isn’t guaranteed to be a winning strategy. Tuesday’s race looks more like a seasonal starting point for favorite.

Instead, we’ll bet the other Fosdick trainee, #1 Empire’s Score (6-1). The bay gelding fired off a big effort in a six-furlong allowance at Indiana Grand last fall, when he rallied from mid-pack to win by 2 3/4 lengths. The 80 Brisnet Speed rating he received stamps Empire’s Score as one of the fastest horses in Tuesday’s field, and jockey Deshawn Parker (who has ridden both of Fosdick’s winners this meet) is named to ride.

$10 to win on #1 Empire’s Score
50-cent trifecta: 1 with 2,3,4,7,9,10 with 2,3,4,7,9,10 ($15)
Total: $25

Parx, Race 10: $50,000 allowance/optional claiming (six furlongs, 4:58 p.m. ET)

#8 Exculpatory (5-1) was a sharp debut winner in a 5 1/2-furlong sprint at Laurel Park two months ago. The son of Mineshaft dropped back to seventh early, then rallied strongly between rivals to win by a half-length, for a respectable 74 Brisnet Speed rating.

The pace of Exculpatory’s debut wasn’t overly fast, so even though late runners swept the trifecta, it’s hard to write off his performance as the result of a pace meltdown. The finishing fractions were solid, so I’m inclined to believe Exculpatory ran a big race.

If Exculpatory takes a step forward in his second start, he can produce another victory for high-percentage trainer Mark Reid and hot jockey Frankie Pennington.

#5 Dalton (3-1), twice stakes-placed as a juvenile, can round out the exacta.

$10 to win in #8 Exculpatory
$5 exacta: 8 with 5
Total: $25

Carryover watch

Indiana Grand, Race 3: $38,221 Pick 6 Carryover

Monday’s Straight Fire 6 at Indiana Grand could have been a low-paying wager, after four favorites visited the winner’s circle. But the first two legs produced surprises, as horses who started at 13-1 and 9-2 came out on top, so winning bettors cashed $808.12 (not bad for a 20-cent wager), while the jackpot carryover grew to $38,221.

If you want to beat a few more favorites Tuesday, we have several options for you to consider. Earlier, we made cases against #4 Carimba (4-5) in Race 5 and #6 Forwhomthebelltoll (8-5) in Race 6. Now, let’s take a look at two other favorites who appear vulnerable to upsets.

Race 3: #4 Hopped Up (5-2)

Hopped Up has hit the board in four straight races at Turfway Park and enters off back-to-back victories. A late runner trained by Jeffrey Greenhill (a 23% winner this year), Hopped Up brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the equation and will be tough to beat if he brings his "A" game.

But Hopped Up has also improved sharply since he transitioned to the Tapeta track at Turfway. He posted much lower Brisnet Speed ratings when he competed on dirt at Indiana Grand last year, so the switch back to a less favorable surface is a question mark to consider.

Race 4: #3 Princess Lilli Bug (3-1)

Princess Lilli Bug owns the best Brisnet Speed rating in the field, as she threw down a 91 when she crushed a $16,000 maiden claiming race over this track in September. She also earned an 81 rating when she nabbed a five-furlong turf allowance at Indiana Grand 16 days later.

But Princess Lilli Bug has only run once this year, in an allowance sprint for Arkansas-breds April 28 at Oaklawn Park. Unfortunately, the daughter of Sky Mesa was pulled up and vanned off.

Princess Lilli Bug bounced back to breeze an easy half mile at Indiana Grand on May 4, so it seems she didn’t suffer any major issues at Oaklawn. But the fact Princess Lilli Bug failed to finish her lone start this year makes her tough to trust as the favorite Tuesday.

Good luck!