Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for May 12

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares his picks and plays for Wednesday, May 12 at Indiana Grand and Thistledown, plus a ticket for the $204,057 Super High 5 carryover at Penn National.

Before you bet, remember to opt in to the TwinSpires Build Your Indiana Derby Day Bankroll offer. Wager at least $1,000 (excluding show wagers) at Indiana Grand in April, May, and/or June and receive $30 to wager at Indiana Grand on Indiana Derby day, July 7. Bet $1,000 at Indiana Grand in all three months and receive $150.

Picks and plays

Indiana Grand, Race 3: Maiden special weight (one mile and 70 yards, 3:27 p.m. ET)

There’s a reason #5 Harvard (3-5) is an odds-on favorite to win this two-turn maiden route. Actually, make that a bunch of reasons.

• Harvard has finished second in his first two starts, sprints against maiden special weight company at Gulfstream Park and Keeneland.

• Harvard has posted excellent Brisnet Speed ratings of 87 and 81, the two fastest figures in Wednesday’s field.
• Harvard is a sibling to three stakes winners, including full brother Classic Empire, a champion two-year-old and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1) winner.
• Harvard is a Triple Crown nominee.
• Harvard will add blinkers for Wednesday’s race, a winning move 21% of the time for trainer Rodolphe Brisset.
• Brisset has seven wins from 22 dirt starters at Indiana Grand since 2018.
• Brisset strikes at a 18% rate with horses who run long for the first time.
• Jockey Chris Landeros has four wins from nine starts for Brisset over the last two months.

Harvard looks almost impossible to beat in Wednesday’s heat. We’ll play him in a cold exacta, over #7 K Rules (8-1), a runner-up at this class level at Indiana Grand last month.

$25 exacta: 5 with 7

Thistledown, Race 4: $12,500 claiming (six furlongs, 2:20 p.m. ET)

#3 Fricka (3-2) is a logical favorite on a drop to the claiming ranks for high-percentage trainer Jeffrey Radosevich. Two starts back, Fricka won six-furlong allowance at Mahoning Valley by three lengths, and Radosevich strikes at a 35% rate with first-time claiming competitors.

But Fricka doesn’t boast an advantage in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings. #6 Grins n’ Wins (5-2) has run slightly faster and placed multiple times against allowance company at Thistledown. Trainer Robert Gorham strikes at a 33% rate with first-time claiming starters, and Grins n’ Wins has enough tactical speed to secure a forwardly placed trip in this seemingly paceless race.

To take advantage of the TwinSpires Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Grins n’ Wins and receive a refund if he finishes second. We’ll also play her on top of Fricka in a straight exacta.

$10 to win on #6 Grins n’ Wins
$10 exacta: 6 with 3
Total: $20

Thistledown, Race 7: Allowance (six furlongs, 3:50 p.m. ET)

There isn’t much speed in this six-furlong dash for fillies and mares, which may give #1 La Muneca (5-2) an insurmountable advantage. Trained by Richard Zielinski, La Muneca finished second at this class level April 28 at Thistledown, where she was beaten just a head, after she carved out the pace.

La Muneca previously wired a $7,500 maiden claiming race at Mahoning by six lengths and earned a 77 Brisnet Speed rating. La Muneca owns the best recent Brisnet Speed ratings in Wednesday’s field, and the fact she looms as the lone frontrunner is significant, since pacesetters win 50% of six-furlong sprints at Thistledown.

In our pursuit of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on La Muneca. Then we’ll play her in a straight exacta over #5 Mrs. Robinson (7-2), who finished third in the April 28 allowance at Thistledown.

$10 to win in #1 La Muneca
$10 exacta: 1 with 5
Total: $20

Carryover watch

Penn National, Race 3: $204,057 Hollywood Hi Five Jackpot

If you’re looking for a change of pace from betting Pick 6 jackpots, why not check out the “Hollywood Hi Five” carryover at Penn National? The 20-cent jackpot pentafecta pool stands at $204,057, the only six-figure carryover on the agenda for Wednedsay.

The Hollywood Hi Five is available for betting in Race 3, a one-mile, 70-yard allowance for Pennsylvania-bred runners that “have never won a PA-restricted race(s) other than maiden, claiming, or starter.” These conditions have allowed some pretty accomplished horses to sneak into the field, including #5 P Js Silver Duke (5-1), who looms as one of the key contenders from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective.

P Js Silver Duke has thrown down back-to-back 83 ratings in maiden and allowance wins against open company at Penn National. The son of Cross Traffic is undefeated in two starts since he stretched out to one mile and 70 yards, which stamps P Js Silver Duke as the horse to beat for the jockey/trainer duo of Edilberto Rodriguez and Robert Wolfe (four wins from eight starts together over the last two months).

For the minor awards, we have to respect #1 Brave Deacon (5-2) and #4 A T M Awesome (3-1). The latter has placed in three straight races at this class level at Penn National, while Brave Deacon finished ahead of A T M Awesome in their most recent meeting April 14.

Since there are only eight horses entered in Wednesday’s race, our strategy for betting the Hollywood Hi Five is straightforward. We’ll single P Js Silver Duke on top, then key Brave Deacon and A T M Awesome underneath, which requires one to finish second and the other to finish in the top five.

Finally, we’ll hit the “ALL” button for the final two slots of our tickets.

20-cent Hollywood Hi Five: 5 with 1,4 with 1,4 with ALL with ALL ($8)
20-cent Hollywood Hi Five: 5 with 1,4 with ALL with 1,4 with ALL ($8)
20-cent Hollywood Hi Five: 5 with 1,4 with ALL with ALL with 1,4 ($8)
Total: $24

Good luck!