Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for May 17

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares his picks and plays for Monday, May 17 at Indiana Grand and Thistledown, along with thoughts on Indiana Grand’s non-jackpot $29,028 Pick 5 carryover.

Before you bet, remember to opt in to the TwinSpires Build Your Indiana Derby Day Bankroll offer. Wager at least $1,000 (excluding show wagers) at Indiana Grand in April, May, and/or June and receive $30 to wager at Indiana Grand on Indiana Derby day, July 7. Bet $1,000 at Indiana Grand in all three months and receive $150.

Picks and plays

Indiana Grand, Race 1: Maiden special weight (one mile and 70 yards, 2:25 p.m. ET)

#6 Actuality (3-5) is the heavy favorite, after he finished fourth in his debut, 5 1/2-furlong sprint at Indiana Grand. But the 60 Brisnet Speed rating he received isn’t a standout figure in Monday’s field, and the stretch out in distance is a question mark.

I’m keen to support #2 It’s the Sunrise (9-2), who finished second over this track, distance, and class level Nov. 3. The four-year-old gelding hasn’t run since, but trainer Stephen Fosdick wins at a respectable 15% rate with horses off layoffs of 90 days or more, and jockey Joseph Ramos (a 21% winner at Indiana Grand this meet) is slated to ride.

It’s the Sunrise has posted Brisnet Speed ratings in the 59-69 range in five of his seven starts, and he has the tactical speed to work out a perfect trip in this small and seemingly paceless field.

We’ll bet It’s the Sunrise to win and play him over Actuality, #3 Strong Style (15-1), and #4 Daddy’s Back (8-1) on exacta and trifecta tickets.

$15 to win on #2 It’s the Sunrise
$3 exacta: 2 with 3,4,6 ($9)
$1 trifecta: 2 with 3,4,6 with 3,4,6 ($6)
Total: $30

Indiana Grand, Race 6: Maiden special weight (six furlongs, 5 p.m. ET)

#9 Blight (1-1) owns the two fastest Brisnet Speed ratings in this field, with figures of 74 and 73 for a pair of seconds in maiden special weight events at Fonner Park and Indiana Grand.

At Fonner, Blight split the next-out winners Ghost Squad and Preacher. At Indiana Grand, he overcame a troubled trip to rally late and finish a length away from victory.

Trainted Marvin Johnson (a 24% winner this meet), Blight looks tough to beat and Ramos will be in the saddle.

Let’s bet Blight in exacta and trifecta wagers, with #2 American Nightmare (7-2) and #6 Dirty Justice (9-2) underneath.

$12 exacta: 9 with 2,6 ($24)
$3 trifecta: 9 with 2,6 with 2,6 ($6)
Total: $30

Thistledown, Race 2: Maiden special weight (six furlongs, 1:20 p.m. ET)

Who is the fastest horse in this maiden sprint for Ohio-breds? That would be #5 Team Leyendecker (12-1), who posted a field-best 74 Brisnet Speed rating when he rallied to finish fourth at this class level and distance at Mahoning Valley last month. The son of Machen finished just a half-length behind third-place runner Armada, who dominated his next start at Thistledown by 10 lengths.

If Team Leyendecker runs back to that level of form, he can beat Monday’s field at a fair price. If you like Brisnet Class ratings and Prime Power rankings, it’s worth noting Team Leyendecker sits atop both lists. Throw in the presence of hot jockey Luis Rivera (a 21% winner at Thistledown) this meet, and I think we have a winner.

$30 to win on #5 Team Leyendecker

Carryover watch

Indiana Grand, Race 4: $29,028 Pick 5 carryover

I can’t think of a reason why anyone would skip betting Monday’s $29,028 Pick 5 carryover at Indiana Grand. The 50-cent wager offers a low takeout rate of 11.99%, and it isn’t a jackpot wager, so winning bettors will split the entire daily pool, plus the carryover. Now there’s a valuable wagering proposition!

Handicapping the sequence in advance of race-day changes is tricky, because significant rainfall is in the forecast for Indiana Grand. There’s a chance the day’s three turf races (all featured in the Pick 5) will be transferred to the main track and trigger a bevy of scratches.

On the bright side, some horses will be formidable no matter which surface they tackle.

Consider #2 Starspangledxpress (2-1) in Race 4, a one-mile grass allowance for Indiana-breds. He has cracked the trifecta in his last four starts, with roughly the same level of form on dirt and turf. Throw in #6 Overthetopjustice (8-5), a blowout maiden winner over the Indiana Grand dirt last month, and I think we can survive the opening leg (regardless of surface) with just two runners.

Race 8, the concluding leg of the sequence, also appears straightforward. #5 Wellington Wonder (5-2) dominated the Indiana First Lady S. over the Indiana Grand main track last year, and she wasn’t disgraced when she finished fifth against a large field in the Florence Henderson S. on turf. She kicked off 2021 with a runner-up effort in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance sprint and should relish the stretch back out in distance, especially if it winds up on dirt.

In between, there are a couple pure dirt races to simplify things. In Race 5, a one-mile allowance for fillies and mares, #4 Nutcracker Ballet (2-1) looms as a possible single. She won a pair of two-turn allowance races over this track last fall and recently kicked off 2021 with a third-place effort in a sprint at Indiana Grand. Trainer Patrick Huffman wins at a 25% rate with horses running back for the second time off a layoff, so Nutcracker Ballet figures to be formidable.

In Race 6, #9 Blight (1-1) looks tough to beat at a short price, though handicappers interested in spreading a bit deeper might consider #2 American Nightmare (7-2), who will cut back in distance and switch from turf to dirt.

That just leaves Race 7, a $12,500 claiming race at 7 1/2 furlongs on the turf course. Unfortunately, this is an event where we really need to see the race-day changes, though #7 Angel of Verdun (6-1) — with her tactical speed and encouraging form on both turf and synthetic — is probably versatile enough to handle whatever conditions arise.

Good luck!