Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for May 20

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares his picks and plays for Thursday, May 20 at Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, and Lone Star Park, along with a ~$10 play for Churchill’s $60,814 Derby City Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Belmont Park and Pimlico.
• Churchill Downs Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Churchill Downs.
• Trifecta Thursdays: Receive a 15% bonus (up to $25) on any winning trifecta ticket.
• Build Your Indiana Derby Day Bankroll: Wager at least $1,000 (excluding show bets) at Indiana Grand in April, May, and/or June and receive $30 to wager at Indiana Grand on Indiana Derby day, July 7. Bet $1,000 at Indiana Grand in all three months and receive $150.
• Lone Star Million Bet Club: Wager at least $100 (excluding show bets) at Lone Star Park on any day from April 22-May 23 and receive $5 to wager at Lone Star on Lone Star Million day, May 31. Wager at least $100 every day from April 22-May 23 and earn an additional $100 bonus. Wager at least $10,000 at Lone Star from April 22-May 23 and receive an additional $500 bonus.

Picks and plays

Belmont Park, Race 9: Maiden special weight (1 1/4 miles on turf, 7:15 p.m. ET)

There’s barely any speed entered in this 1 1/4-mile grass event for fillies and mares, which sets the stage for an unpredictable result. And by unpredictable, we’re thinking along the lines of a victory from #2 Harlem Heights (8-1).

Trained by Shug McGaughey (four wins from 19 starts this meet), Harlem Heights cracked the trifecta in both of her turf starts last season. She finished second by a nose in 1 1/8-mile event at Belmont, then came home third in a 1 3/8-mile race at Aqueduct. In the latter, Harlem Heights tracked the pace and put up a 102 Brisnet E2 Pace rating.

Harlem Heights failed to challenge in her 2021 debut, but she is eligible to take a step forward in her second start off the layoff.

She is quick enough to make the lead in this paceless race, so let’s capitalize on the Midweek Bet Back offer and place a $10 win bet on Harlem Heights. We’ll also bet her on top of small exacta and trifecta tickets.

$10 to win on #2 Harlem Heights
$1 exacta: 2 with 5,6,8,10 ($4)
50-cent trifecta: 2 with 5,6,8,10 with 5,6,8,10 ($6)
Total: $20

Churchill Downs, Race 3: Maiden special weight (five furlongs, 5:58 p.m. ET)

Trainer Wesley Ward has four wins from five starts with juveniles at Churchill Downs this meet, which suggests his two-year-old fillies #2 Baja Fog (3-1) and #9 Bali Dove (2-1) will be tough to beat in this five-furlong turf dash.

Bali Dove in particular looks formidable. A daughter of two-time European classic winner Churchill, Bali Dove is bred top and bottom to thrive on turf. She has already taken a trio of spins over the turf course at Palm Meadows, and most notably rocketed three furlongs in a bullet :34 2/5. Bali Dove has turned in nine timed workouts since the beginning of March, so fitness shouldn’t be an issue.

To capitalize on the Churchill Downs Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Bali Dove. Then we’ll play her on top of an exacta, with Baja Fog and #1 Rock Along (6-1) for second place.

$10 to win on #9 Bali Dove
$5 exacta: 9 with 1,2 ($10)
Total: $20

Lone Star Park, Race 5: Allowance (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 9:27 p.m. ET)

#6 Zarelda (10-1) might not be as accomplished on turf as some of her rivals, but she has been in strong form since she was transferred to the care of trainer Matt Hebert. Two starts back, she finished ahead of Thursday’s morning-line favorite, #3 Ima Discreet Lady (7-5), in the 6 1/2-furlong Bluebonnet S. on dirt. She then cruised to victory by 3 3/4 lengths in a 6 1/2-furlong allowance.

Zarelda wasn’t disgraced in her lone turf start last season, when she finished third in the one-mile Miss Houston Turf S., after she dueled for the lead through solid early fractions. At 10-1, I’m willing to bet Zarelda’s hot recent form will allow the gray mare to handle the return to turf and spring a significant surprise.

Ima Discreet Lady, #2 Miss Perfecta (2-1), and #5 Discreet Smile (5-2) can battle for the minor awards.

$15 to win on #6 Zarelda
$3 exacta: 6 with 2,3,5 ($9)
$1 trifecta: 6 with 2,3,5 with 2,3,5 ($6)
Total: $30

Carryover watch

Churchill Downs, Race 3: $60,814 Derby City 6 jackpot

The racing week at Churchill Downs kicks off with a $60,814 jackpot in the Derby City 6.

Construct a unique winning ticket, and the whole pot is yours. But only 10% of the daily pool is added to the jackpot carryover, so day-to-day consolation payoffs can be lucrative. On Sunday, the 20-cent wager returned a hefty $3,995.54, even though four favorites prevailed and a 9-1 winner was the only meaningful surprise of the sequence.

Thursday’s Derby City 6 kicks off in Race 3, where we’re keen to single Wesley Ward’s #9 Bali Dove (2-1) at a short price.

That will afford us some wiggle room to spread deep in Race 4, a $30,000 maiden claiming sprint that features a bevy of contenders on paper. Hitting the “ALL” button might not be the worst strategy in a race where none of the runners have come close to reaching the 85 Brisnet Speed rating par for the class level and distance.

Race 5, a $20,000 claiming event, is similarly tough, with 10 horses in the main body of the field and also-eligibles waiting in the wings. The one-mile turf test features a logical favorite, #6 Uncapped (3-1), who finished fourth for a $40,000 claiming tag at Churchill Downs last month. Trainer Robertino Diodoro wins at a 29% rate with horses who drop down two or more class levels, and Uncapped has the tactical speed to stay out of trouble, so I can see some appeal to singling the chestnut gelding.

Race 6 is a 1 1/16-mile, $25,000 claiming race over the main track, where the consistent #5 Cantrell Hill (5-2) and the stakes-placed #7 Lamartine (3-1) are deserving favorites for hot trainers.

Race 7 shouldn’t be difficult, either. The six-furlong allowance for sophomore fillies appears poised for conquest by #6 Mischiefful (8-5), who finished second by a neck over this distance and class level at Keeneland last month. That effort produced an excellent 94 Brisnet Speed rating, and the strength of Mischiefful’s effort was reiterated when the winner came back to nab a stakes in her next start.

That just leaves Race 8, a 1 1/2-mile turf allowance race with 10 runners in the main body of the field. California shipper #8 Media Blitz (5-2) has tactical speed and the breeding to thrive over 1 1/2 miles, so the bay colt must be used on all tickets. But he is probably not the type to single at a short price. #3 Buy Me Candy (10-1) and #4 High Tide (7-2) also offer some appeal.

With the caveat that examining race-day changes might allow us to construct a stronger ticket, here’s how we recommend playing Thursday’s Derby City 6. It’s hard to go too wrong with a ~$10 play.

20-cent Derby City 6: 9 with ALL with 6 with 5,7 with 6 with 3,4,8 ($10.80)

Good luck!