Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for May 21

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares his picks and plays for Friday, May 21 at Belmont Park, Churchill Downs, and Lone Star Park, along with horses of note in Pimlico’s $598,522 Rainbow Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Churchill Downs Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in select races at Churchill Downs.
• Rest of the World Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any race at Doomben (Australia).
• Lone Star Million Bet Club: Wager at least $100 (excluding show bets) at Lone Star Park on any day from April 22-May 23 and receive $5 to wager at Lone Star on Lone Star Million day, May 31. Wager at least $100 every day from April 22-May 23 and earn an additional $100 bonus. Wager at least $10,000 at Lone Star from April 22-May 23 and receive an additional $500 bonus.

Picks and plays

Churchill Downs, Race 7: $62,500 optional-claiming allowance (1 1/8 miles on turf, 3:50 p.m. ET)

#7 Stand Tall (12-1) showed promise on turf last season.

First she flashed tracking speed to break her maiden over 1 3/16 miles at Keeneland, then the daughter of Uncle Mo finished a deceptively good fifth in the Dueling Grounds Oaks. After a battle for early supremacy, Stand Tall was only beaten 3 3/4 lengths against a deep field, including next-out Queen Elizabeth II Challenge Cup (G1) winner Harvey’s Lil Goil and future stakes winners Micheline, Luck Money, and Stunning Sky.

Stand Tall recently returned from a layoff to dominate a 1 1/8-mile, off-the-turf allowance at Keeneland. The switch back to grass can trigger another winning effort from the Rusty Arnold trainee, especially when you consider how Arnold strikes wins at a 24% rate with horses in their second start following a layoff.

A $10 win bet is definitely in order. If Stand Tall finishes second or third, we’ll receive a refund through the Churchill Downs Bet Back offer. But we’ll also play her over #6 Family Way (2-1) in a straight exacta.

$10 to win on #7 Stand Tall
$5 exacta: 7 with 6
Total: $15

Lone Star Park, Race 8: Allowance (six furlongs, 6:51 p.m. ET)

The career of #4 Bank (2-1) has been dotted with layoffs, but along the way, the son of Bernardini has shown flashes of talent.

A stretch-running maiden winner sprinting six furlongs at Oaklawn Park during the spring of 2020, Bank returned to the same track and distance to dominate a March 28 allowance by 2 1/4 lengths.

The latter effort produced a 92 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest figure in Friday’s field. Bank subsequently finished ninth in a May 1 Oaklawn allowance, but we’ll draw a line through that effort, since Bank was forced to steady and lose a lot of momentum heading toward the turn.

Bank should find the competition a bit easier at Lone Star, where he’ll be ridden by high-percentage jockey Stewart Elliott. We’ll bet him to win and play him over #6 General Trev (9-2) in the exacta.

$20 to win on #4 Bank
$10 exacta: 4 with 6
Total: $30

Santa Anita, Race 7: $50,000 optional-claiming allowance (six furlongs on turf, 7:12 p.m. ET)

#6 Jazz Hands (5-1) has never run on turf, but as a son of Square Eddie (who sires 12% winners from first-time grass starters), his pedigree hints the switch won’t be an issue.

Jazz Hands has shown talent over the synthetic track at Golden Gate Fields, where he finished second in an optional-claiming allowance and won a starter allowance race by 1 3/4 lengths, over next-out winner Pappy Boyington.

Jazz Hands brings competitive Brisnet Speed ratings to the mix, and since morning-line favorite #7 Letsgetlucky (9-5) will also make his turf debut, I can see some appeal to playing Jazz Hands at a much better price.

Let’s bet Jazz Hands to win and complete our trio of exacta plays by playing Jazz Hands over Letsgetlucky and #4 Rocktillyoudrop (7-2).

$15 to win on #6 Jazz Hands
$5 exacta: 6 with 4,7 ($10)
Total: $25

Carryover watch

Pimlico, Race 4: $598,522 Rainbow Pick 6 jackpot

There are 17 carryovers up for grabs at U.S. Thoroughbred racetracks Friday. But one is worth more than all the others combined, and that’s the $598,522 Rainbow Pick 6 jackpot at Pimlico.

The carryover for the 20-cent wager grew considerably Saturday, when Preakness (G1) bettors pumped $1,396,364 through the windows for returns of $5,940.46. Multiple winning tickets were sold again Thursday (with payoffs of $4,448.96).

Planning to bet this lucrative sequence? Here are a couple noteworthy runners to include on your tickets.

Best single: Race 4, #2 Self Awareness (1-1)

Self Awareness is a logical favorite in this $16,000 claiming sprint. The son of Bayern has posted competitive 80 Brisnet Speed ratings against significantly tougher company in his last two dirt starts.

On May 9, Self Awareness tracked quick fractions in a $32,000 optional-claiming allowance (to earn Brisnet E1 and E2 Pace ratings of 101 and 105), before he weakened to finish fifth in a large field.

There isn’t much speed in this six-furlong dash, so Self Awareness figures to enjoy a favorable trip on the drop in class. He’ll be tough to beat if he runs his typical race.

Live longshot: Race 8, #1 King Mauro (6-1)

Most folks figure to settle on #2 Belfour (8-5) in this $5,000 starter allowance. He has won his last two starts at this class level and has five wins from seven starts on dirt since he was claimed by trainer John Robb.

But don’t count out King Mauro as a mid-range longshot. Two starts back, he led all the way to dominate an $8,000 claiming race at Laurel Park, where he trounced a pair of next-out winners and earned a strong 97 Brisnet Speed rating.

And while King Mauro misfired in his most recent run, he was claimed by trainer Anthony Farrior, who wins at a 25% rate with new claiming acquisitions.

Good luck!