Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for May 24

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares his picks and plays for Monday, May 24 at Indiana Grand, Prairie Meadows, and Thistledown, along with horses of note for the $99,713 jackpot Pick 5 carryover at Parx.

Before you bet, remember to opt in to the TwinSpires Build Your Indiana Derby Day Bankroll offer. Wager at least $1,000 (excluding show wagers) at Indiana Grand in April, May, and/or June and receive $30 to wager at Indiana Grand on Indiana Derby day, July 7. Bet $1,000 at Indiana Grand in all three months and receive $150.

Picks and plays

Indiana Grand, Race 1: Maiden special weight (six furlongs, 2:25 p.m. ET)

#1 Bernadette the Jet (8-5) has shown promising form against arguably tougher company than she’ll encounter Monday.

In a $30,000 maiden claiming race at Keeneland last month, Bernadette the Jet tracked the early tempo and ran into traffic down the homestretch. But she battled on to finish second by two lengths in her first start off a 10-month break.

Sold for $425,000 as a yearling, Bernadette the Jet is a daughter of American Pharoah, out of the stakes-placed Saint Ballado mare Saint Bernadette, so she has always had the pedigree to be a classy filly.

She owns the best Brisnet Speed ratings in Monday’s field and should receive a solid pace to work with, which stamps the chestnut four-year-old as the runner to beat if she brings her "A" game.

#4 Slainte (9-2), who has likewise shipped in from the Kentucky circuit, can complete a cold exacta.

$20 exacta: 1 with 4

Prairie Meadows, Race 7: Allowance (six furlongs, 7:42 p.m. ET)

#5 Scrutinizer (8-5) has been a picture of consistency.

He has cracked the trifecta in 11 of his last 12 starts. His lone miss came in his 2021 debut, when a troubled start left the speedy gelding last early.

Scrutinizer bounced back nicely in his second start of the year, when he carved out a quick pace in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance at Prairie Meadows and edged away to win by 1 1/4 lengths.

Scrutinizer boasts a 12-6-2 record from 26 starts at Prairie Meadows, which includes a trio of stakes wins.

Post 5 affords Scrutinizer options to set or stalk the pace as necessary, so let’s play him on top in the trifecta.

$9 trifecta: 5 with 3 with 1,2 ($18)
$6 trifecta: 5 with 1,2 with 3 ($12)
Total: $30

Thistledown, Race 8: $5,000 maiden claiming (one mile, 4:20 p.m. ET)

There is plenty to like about #4 Poppy’s Girl (5-2) in this low-level claimer for fillies and mares.

She has cracked the trifecta in three straight races and put up competitive Brisnet Speed ratings in the 59-63 range. She is proven over this track and distance, where she finished second in a $7,500 maiden claiming race two weeks ago.

She has plenty of tactical speed, and she will drop down the class ladder. Surely victory is inevitable?

That’s my conclusion. I’ll count on another strong effort from Poppy’s Girl, so if her 5-2 morning-line odds hold up, we’ll bet her to win and play her on top in the trifecta.

$18 to win on #4 Poppy’s Girl
$2 trifecta: 4 with 2,3 with 1,2,3,4 ($12)
Total: $30

Carryover watch

Parx, Race 7: $99,713 Pick 5 Jackpot

The largest carryover up for grabs Monday is at Parx. The “Philly Big 5” — a jackpot-style 50-cent Pick 5 wager — boasts a carryover of $99,713.

The Philly Big 5 features a takeout rate of 15%, and 30% of the daily pool is set aside to build the jackpot, which leaves 70% to be dispersed among multiple winning bettors. Wednesday’s sequence returned $1,893.15, even after a pair of odds-on favorites reached the winner’s circle.

If you’re eager to join in on the action, we’ve got you covered with a suggested single and a vulnerable favorite to build tickets around.

Best single: Race 7, #1 Tonka Flower/#1A Forloveofcountry (8-5)

Entrymates Tonka Flower and Forloveofcountry look formidable in this one-mile, 70-yard starter allowance, and while it is possible only one will start (they both have hot jockey Ruben Silvera named to ride), either is capable of winning. Both bring tactical speed, and both enter off blowout victories that resulted in 92+ Brisnet Speed ratings.

Trainer Jamie Ness is a 30% winner at Parx, and Ness and Silvera have teamed up to strike at a 47% rate over the last two months. When the dust settles, I expect to see either Tonka Flower or Foreloveofcountry in the winner’s circle at a short price.

Vulnerable favorite: Race 8, #4 Real Factor (8-5)

Real Factor was only beaten three lengths in the 2020 Red Smith S. (G3) at Aqueduct, after he opened up a huge early lead, so he will be a popular play on the drop to this $16,000 starter/optional-claiming race over the Parx turf course.

But Real Factor has just two wins from 31 starts, and he has never won on turf. He also misfired in his 2021 debut, when he finished last in an optional-claiming allowance over the Laurel Park main track in January. Real Factor hasn’t run since, so 8-5 seems like a short price to accept.

I’m tempted to oppose Real Factor entirely in the Pick 5, in favor of horses like #5 Dramatized (8-1) and #7 Mt Suribachi (4-1). Neither has started this year, but at least they’ve won turf races against this caliber of competition or better.

Good luck!