Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for May 25

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares his picks and plays for Tuesday, May 25 at Canterbury Park, Indiana Grand, and Thistledown, including a $48 play for Indiana Grand’s $67,235 Pick 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Midweek Bet Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in select races at Parx Racing and Thistledown.
• Build Your Indiana Derby Day Bankroll: Wager at least $1,000 (excluding show bets) at Indiana Grand in April, May, and/or June and receive $30 to wager at Indiana Grand on Indiana Derby day, July 7. Bet $1,000 at Indiana Grand in all three months and receive $150.

Picks and plays

Canterbury Park, Race 8: $10,000 claiming (five furlongs, 9:40 p.m. ET)

#7 Greater Cairo (5-2) looks tough to beat on a drop in class at Canterbury.

The son of Cairo Prince enters off a big effort against $20,000 claiming company April 30 at Oaklawn Park. In his first start off a claim by high-percentage trainer Robertino Diodoro, Greater Cairo carved out a fast pace but succumbed in the final strides to lose the six-furlong sprint by a head.

The cut back in distance should suit Greater Cairo, and pacesetters win 71% of five-furlong dirt sprints at Canterbury. If Greater Cairo secures the lead again, he’ll be tough to run down.

We’ll bet Greater Cairo to win, then play him in the exacta, over #6 Thirtyminutemass (4-1) and #12 Jimmy’s Marco (8-1).

$24 to win on #7 Greater Cairo
$3 exacta: 7 with 6,12 ($6)
Total: $30

Indiana Grand, Race 8: Maiden special weight (one mile on turf, 6:02 p.m. ET)

#7 Rochambeau (8-5) is the fastest horse on paper, but he has crossed the wire second in seven of his 11 starts, so he seems more likely to settle for a minor award than visit the winner’s circle.

We’ll oppose him with #6 Calidus (5-1), a first-time starter from the barn of high-percentage trainer Brad Cox. A half-brother to the multiple stakes-winning router Mylady Curlin, Calidus is a son of Latent Heat, who sires 10% winners from first-time grass starters.

Since 2016, Cox has won with nine of his 28 debut runners in turf routes at Indiana Grand, which suggests Calidus can fire a big shot on debut. The bay colt has turned in some encouraging workouts at Indiana Grand, so let’s bet him to win and play him over Rochambeau and #5 Ghost of the Mambo (7-2) in the exacta and trifecta.

$15 to win on #6 Calidus
$5 exacta: 6 with 5,7 ($10)
$2.50 trifecta: 6 with 5,7 with 5,7 ($5)
Total: $30

Thistledown, Race 7: Allowance (5 1/2 furlongs, 3:50 p.m. ET)

#8 Carmen Ohio (5-2) has been in hot form for high-percentage trainer Jeffrey Radosevich, a 31% winner this meet.

After she dominated back-to-back $6,500 claiming races at Mahoning Valley, Carmen Ohio finished third in a six-furlong allowance at Mahoning, where she was beaten only by the next-out winners Angel’s Sassy and Love You Goodbye.

Carmen Ohio brings tactical speed and figures to get a perfect trip stalking #4 Lexy Anna (7-2) and perhaps #5 A Smile a Day (10-1). From there, she can power to victory under jockey Luis Rivera, a 22% winner this meet and a 31% winner when he teams up with Radosevich.

Lexy Anna can battle with Carmen Ohio’s stablemate #3 Deb’s All Out (3-1) to complete the exacta and trifecta. But our main wager will be $10 win bet on Carmen Ohio, to take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer.

$10 to win on #8 Carmen Ohio
$4 exacta: 8 with 3,5 ($8)
$1 trifecta: 8 with 3,5 with 3,5 ($2)
Total: $20

Carryover watch

Indiana Grand, Race 5: $67,235 Pick 5 carryover

Get ready, carryover fans!

A series of unpredictable results Monday at Indiana Grand (including a 66-1 upset winner) has triggered a $67,235 Pick 5 carryover for Tuesday’s card. The 50-cent wager offers a low takeout rate of 11.99%, and it’s not a jackpot-style wager, so the entire carryover (plus the daily pool) will be dispersed among winning bettors.

Let’s take a race-by-race look at the sequence, then put together a ticket on a $48 budget.

Race 5: $20,000 starter allowance

#1 Daddy’s Boo (9-5) owns the best Brisnet Speed ratings in the field, but she has only run once since November of 2019, when she finished second in a $20,000 optional-claiming allowance at Arlington Park.

Daddy’s Boo failed to hang on, even after she carved out a slow pace, so we’ll oppose her with #4 Strollin the Bayou (3-1), who overcame a troubled trip to win a $20,000 claiming race at Fair Grounds last month with a strong late rally.

Race 6: $8,000 allowance/optional claiming

#3 Antalya (8-5) won three of her last four starts over the Tampa Bay Downs turf course, including a pair of $16,000 claiming races. She figures to be formidable at Indiana Grand, though #1 Northern Alliance (7-2), #2 Our Closure (7-2), and #8 Malibu Moira (9-2) also have the form lines and speed figures to challenge on their best day.

Race 7: Maiden special weight

#9 Romancer (5-2) has cranked out fast workouts for trainer Steve Asmussen, who won his lone start with a juvenile first-time starter at Indiana Grand this meet.

But trainer Rey Hernandez has also enjoyed success with debut two-year-olds at Indiana Grand, so we’ll use #11 Overly Critical (6-1) as backup.

Race 8: Maiden special weight

For Pick 5 purposes, we’ll use the first-time starter #6 Calidus (5-1) in equal strength with logical favorites #5 Ghost of a Mambo (7-2) and #7 Rochambeau (8-5).

Race 9: Maiden special weight

The finale is a tough maiden sprint for Indiana-breds, and it is hard to split the key contenders.

We’ll spread deep, with #4 Five Star Colonel (4-1), #5 Azzaro Steel (2-1), #9 Blazen Justice (3-1), and #10 Red Liaison (9-2).

50-cent Pick 5: 4 with 1,2,3,8 with 9,11 with 5,6,7 with 4,5,9,10 ($48)

Good luck!