Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for May 6

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares his picks and plays for Thursday, May 6 at Belmont Park, Indiana Grand, and Lone Star Park, including horses of note in Belmont’s $56,516 Pick 6 carryover.

Before you bet, remember to opt in to the TwinSpires Build Your Indiana Derby Day Bankroll offer. Wager at least $1,000 (excluding show wagers) at Indiana Grand in April, May, and/or June and receive $30 to wager at Indiana Grand on Indiana Derby day, July 7. Bet $1,000 at Indiana Grand in all three months and receive $150.

Also, be sure to check out the Midweek Bet Back, $18K Place Jackpot at Indiana Grand, and Lone Star Million Bet Club offers — all are applicable to Keeler’s Wednesday plays.

Picks and plays

Belmont Park, Race 4: $20,000 maiden claiming (six furlongs, 4:40 p.m. ET)

There isn’t much speed in this six-furlong dash, which leaves #7 Tiny Magoo (5-2) as a logical threat.

A pace-tracking type, Tiny Magoo has finished second in two of her last three starts, with both of those placed efforts coming in $25,000 maiden claiming sprints for New York-breds at Aqueduct. The Brisnet Speed ratings Tiny Magoo posted (72 and 75) look quite competitive against this modest field.

But don’t sleep on the chances of #2 Madame Rose (30-1), who finished ahead of Tiny Magoo in an open $20,000 maiden claiming race at Aqueduct two starts back. Madame Rose showed frontrunning speed that day, and we can’t knock her subsequent ninth-place effort over the Belmont turf course, considering she endured a rough trip after a surface switch.

We’ll place a $10 win bet on Tiny Magoo. Thanks to the Midweek Bet Back offer, we’ll receive a refund if she finishes second. We’ll also place a $2 win bet on Madame Rose and box Tiny Magoo and Madame Rose in a small exacta.

$10 to win on #7 Tiny Magoo
$2 to win on #2 Madame Rose
$1 exacta box: 2,7 ($2)
Total: $14

Indiana Grand, Race 1: $5,000 starter allowance (5 1/2 furlongs, 3:25 p.m. ET)

#1 Jazz Brunch (9-5), #4 Jills Passion (4-1), and #3 Niece Jackie Davis (5-1) ran 1-2-3 in an $8,000 starter/optional-claiming race at Indiana Grand last month, and all three loom as logical contenders at the same track and distance.

But I’m just as interested in #6 Tapjen (7-2).

A possibly delicate five-year-old, who only ran three times in 2020, Tapjen recently returned from a long layoff to dominate a $5,000 claiming race at Indiana Grand. In a five-furlong sprint, the Marvin Johnson trainee settled in second early, then pounced to the lead and drew away to score by 7 1/2 lengths, for a 92 Brisnet Speed rating.

Tapjen isn’t guaranteed to repeat this performance. She hasn’t strung big efforts back-to-back since she won maiden and allowance races in the spring of 2019. But it’s possible Tapjen has elevated her game to a new level off the layoff, so at 7-2, I’m willing to bet she can repeat the effort and spring a mild upset.

Tapjen will retain the services of apprentice jockey Andrea Rodriguez, which means she’ll carry just 115 pounds, nine fewer than Jazz Brunch. Throw in the fact that Johnson has won at a 25% rate this meet, and there are plenty of reasons to support Tapjen.

In addition to win and exacta wagers, we’ll place a $5 place bet on Tapjen. If we can cash four (or more) winning place bets at Indiana Grand on Wednesday, we’ll win a share of a $1,500 bonus pool through the TwinSpires $18K Place Jackpot at Indiana Grand offer.

$10 to win on #6 Tapjen
$5 to place on #6 Tapjen
$5 exacta: 6 with 1,4 ($10)
Total: $25

Lone Star Park, Race 6: $7,500 maiden claiming (six furlongs, 9:55 p.m. ET)

#6 She’s an Angel (1-1) fired a big effort in her first start off a claim by high-percentage trainer Karl Broberg. In a six-furlong, $12,500 maiden claiming race March 25 at Oaklawn Park, She’s an Angel tracked a quick pace, rallied into contention, and finished second, behind Undecidedcertainty, who won two of her next three starts.

Broberg has been hot at Lone Star, with a 22% win rate, and jockey David Cabrera will retain the mount. Broberg strikes at a 28% rate with horses in their second start off a claim, so all signs suggest She’s an Angel is sitting on a big effort on the drop from a $12,500 maiden claiming race to a $7,500 event for Texas-breds.

If you want to take advantage of the Midweek Bet Back offer, we recommend placing a $10 win bet on She’s an Angel and calling it a day. But if you’re keen to capitalize on the Lone Star Million Bet Club offer (and earn $5 to wager at Lone Star on Lone Star Million day, May 31), then why not increase your win bet to $100? It’s going to be tough for anyone to take down She’s an Angel, and if her even-money, morning-line odds hold up, perhaps we can turn $100 into $200 in approximately 73 seconds.

$10 to win on #6 She’s an Angel

OR

$100 to win on #6 She’s an Angel

Carryover watch

Belmont Park, Race 4: $56,516 Pick 6 Carryover

If you’re in the mood to play a non-jackpot carryover, check out the Wednesday card at Belmont Park. There’s a $56,516 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Pick 6, and so long as one or more winning tickets are sold, the entire pot will be dispersed among winning bettors — no unique winning ticket required.

The sequence kicks off in the fourth race, where we like the chances of #7 Tiny Magoo (5-2) and #2 Madame Rose (30-1). But let’s take a quick look at two other races in the sequence, to highlight a logical single and a vulnerable favorite

Best single: Race 8, #4 Silky Blue (8-5)

Turf sprinter Silky Blue ran just fine in a $40,000 optional-claiming allowance at Aqueduct last month, when she rallied from a couple lengths behind a modest pace to finish second to a frontrunning winner. Considering that was Silky Blue’s first start of the season, we can’t knock her performance.

Silky Blue has the potential to take a step forward Thursday, since trainer Jorge Duarte wins at a 21% rate with horses who run back for the second time following a layoff. Silky Blue is also undefeated in two sprint starts over the Widener turf course at Belmont, so a return to the course should only help her chances.

Vulnerable favorite: Race 6, #3 Royale (3-1)

Assuming this 1 3/8-mile maiden special weight stays on the turf, Royale may end up favored, even though he is listed as the 3-1 second choice on the morning line. The son of Zoffany ran twice on the New York circuit last fall, when he finished third in a $40,000 maiden claiming race at Belmont, then stepped up to finish third again in a maiden special weight at Aqueduct.

But Royale hasn’t run since December, and he doesn’t bring much tactical speed to the table. His Brisnet Late Pace ratings (83 and 74) are also a little light, so there’s no guarantee he’ll relish the stretch out a quarter mile farther than he has ever run before.

#9 Connagh’s Quay (7-2) and #4 Prayer Book (5-1) loom as logical alternatives.

Good luck!