Keeler Johnson's picks and plays for May 7

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares his picks and plays for Friday, May 7 at Belmont Park and Churchill Downs, along with thoughts on the $3,394 Pick 6 carryover at Churchill.

Picks and plays

Belmont Park, Race 2: Maiden special weight (six furlongs, 9:55 p.m. ET)

#5 Absolute Courage (7-5) is the clear favorite, after he finished finishing fourth in his debut, a six-furlong sprint at Aqueduct. Trainer Trainer Shug McGaughey wins at a 16% rate with second-time starters (higher than his 10% strike with debut runners), so bettors will expect Absolute Courage to improve Friday.

On the other hand, #1 Risk Profile (2-1) has run faster than Absolute Courage on the Brisnet Speed rating scale and looms as a logical alternative, if the favorite fails to step forward. The son of hot sire Into Mischief has cracked the trifecta in five of his seven starts, including all three of his runs at Belmont Park. A runner-up in a $40,000 maiden claiming race over this track last month, Risk Profile has tactical speed and may secure an easy lead.

Let’s bet Risk Profile to win, then play him over Absolute Courage and the first-time starter #3 Uncle Mo’s Cat (9-2) in the exacta and trifecta.

$15 to win on #1 Risk Profile
$5 exacta: 1 with 3,5 ($10)
$2.50 trifecta: 1 with 3,5 with 3,5 ($5)
Total: $30

Churchill Downs, Race 1: $20,000 maiden claiming (six furlongs, 4:40 p.m. ET)

First-time starter #6 Old Town Road (6-5) is the heavy favorite for trainer Wesley Ward, who compiled a 3-2-1 record from seven starts with debuting two-year-olds at Churchill Downs during the 2020 spring meet.

But it’s worth noting how Keeneland (the traditional proving ground for Ward’s best juveniles) didn’t race during the spring of 2020, which likely pushed some of Ward’s classiest youngsters to debut at Churchill. Between 2016 and 2019, Ward had just one win from 11 starters with debuting two-year-olds during the spring at Churchill Downs.

With these stats in mind, let’s oppose Old Town Road with #2 Over It (2-1). Trainer Timothy Hamm has only started five horses at Churchill Downs since 2019, but three finished in the money, and Hamm’s 20% win rate with horses who debut in maiden claiming races is solid.

Over It has shown some speed in the morning, as he breezed a half-mile from the Keeneland starting gate in :47 4/5, and sire Carpe Diem was a Grade 1-winning juvenile. Over It is eligible to fire a strong shot right out of the gate, so let’s bet him to win and play him over Old Town Road in a cold exacta.

$20 to win on #2 Over It
$5 exacta: 2 with 6
Total: $25

Churchill Downs, Race 6: $50,000 claiming (one mile on turf, 3:18 p.m. ET)

#7 Indy Tourist (5-1) was sharp in a $50,000 claiming race over the Gulfstream Park turf course three months ago. After he tracked slow fractions of :24.56, :49.38, and 1:13.01 from third place, Indy Tourist rocketed the final quarter of the one-mile heat in :22.71 to win by a half-length.

Placed against stakes company as a juvenile, Indy Tourist should be formidable at the same class level and distance as his latest victory.

To take advantage of the Churchill Downs Bet Back offer, we’ll place a $10 win bet on Indy Tourist and receive a refund if he finishes second or third.

$10 to win on #7 Indy Tourist

Carryover watch

Churchill Downs, Race 4: $3,394 Pick 6 carryover

The racing week at Churchill Downs kicks off with a $3,394 carryover in the 20-cent Derby City 6. The jackpot-style wager pays out 90% of its daily pool on days when multiple winning tickets are sold, which is why Thursday’s Derby City 6 returned $2,545.18 (from a pool of $39,927), even though a 7-1 fourth choice was the only remotely surprising winner in the sequence.

Friday’s Derby City 6 is a formidable wager, with 68 entries before scratches, which equates to 1,762,560 possible outcomes. Even when you remove the also-eligibles and main-track-only entries, there are still 1,036,800 outcomes to consider.

The sequence begins in Race 4, an $8,000 claiming race with eight entries. #1 Ace Destroyer (5-2) is the morning-line favorite, and he is technically the fastest horse in terms of Brisnet Speed ratings. But Ace Destroyer hasn’t visited the winner’s circle since he took a $5,000 starter allowance at Indiana Grand in July of 2020, and his form has slipped in recent starts. He can win, but he doesn’t look unstoppable. #8 Thirsty Betrayal (7-2) and #7 State Treasurer (4-1) are both fast enough to challenge on their best day.

One of the more straightforward legs of the Derby City 6 is Race 7, a $50,000 starter allowance. #3 Richiesgotgame (3-1) boasts two wins from three starts on dirt and scored the Jim Edgar Illinois Futurity against Illinois-breds at Hawthorne last year, which stamps him as a logical favorite. His primary opposition figures to come from #2 Copa (4-1), who broke his maiden for a $30,000 tag at Fair Grounds and then wired a $40,000 event at Keeneland. Claimed out of the latter by trainer Robertino Diodoro, Copa brings an abundance of frontrunning speed and is a threat to lead gate to wire.

The manageable nature of Race 7 stands in stark contrast to Race 8, an allowance sprint for fillies and mares on turf. It is a beast to handicap. Seventeen horses have been entered — 12 in the main body of the field, plus three also-eligibles and two main-track only entrants. #3 Senora Roma (5-2) and #4 Flying Aletha (7-2) are the two favorites, but neither has won on turf, which tells you everything you need to know about this formidable handicapping challenge.

One longshot worth considering is #10 Joy of Painting (12-1), who will cut back in distance after she placed third in the one-mile Herecomesthebride (G3) during the winter. Trainer Rusty Arnold has been hot at Churchill Downs this spring, with three wins from seven starts. But spreading as deep as you can afford might be the best way to survive Race 8.

Good luck!