Keeler Johnson's picks and plays March 20

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares picks and plays for Monday, March 20 at Mahoning Valley, Turf Paradise, and Will Rogers Downs, including a trio of exactas.

Picks and Plays

Mahoning Valley: Race 8: Allowance (six furlongs, 4:04 p.m. ET)

#7 Creme de Mais (5-2) (scratch) was tons the best in her Feb. 6 debut at Mahoning Valley. Starting as the 22-10 second choice in a six-furlong maiden special weight for Ohio-bred fillies and mares, Creme de Mais pressed a respectable pace before powering clear to beat a next-out winner by 13 lengths.

That runaway victory yielded a flashy 75 Brisnet Speed rating. Trainer Marco Ibarra has been on fire at Mahoning this meet, going 10-for-20 (50%), so we’ll count on Creme de Mais to win right back.

Let’s key Creme de Mais on top of exacta and trifecta tickets.

Selections

• #7 Creme de Mais (5-2)
• #9 Kerri’s Miracle (10-1)
• #1 Lemon Mousse (3-1)

Wagers

• $6 Exacta: 7 with 1,8,9 ($18)
• $2 Trifecta: 7 with 1,8,9 with 1,8,9 ($12)
  Total: $30

Turf Paradise: Race 2: $8,500 Maiden Claiming (one mile, 4:54 p.m. ET)

#6 Six Shots of T (5-2) has never run farther than 6 1/2 furlongs, but he looms as the only obvious speed horse in this one-mile contest, so there’s a good chance he’ll secure an uncontested lead.

Six Shots of T has crossed the wire third in three straight $30,000-$20,000 maiden claiming sprints at Turf Paradise, so dropping down to the $8,500 level should help him visit the winner’s circle for the red-hot jockey/trainer duo of Ezequiel Lara and Jeffrey Metz, who have gone 4-for-6 (67%) teaming up together over the last two months.

#3 My Sweet Lord (6-5), who has placed multiple times at the $30,000 maiden claiming level, can complete a cold exacta.

Selections

• #6 Six Shots of T (5-2)
• #3 My Sweet Lord (6-5)
• #4 John’s Kid (3-1)

Wagers

• $25 Exacta: 6 with 3

Will Rogers Downs: Race 10: Allowance (six furlongs, 6:35 p.m. ET)

#1 Tom’s Girl (5-1) has shown promising form against tougher competition, placing third in the Oklahoma Classics Lassie S. and fourth in the Slide Show S. She also rallied to finish second in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance at Remington Park last November.

Tom’s Girl misfired in her 2023 debut, running seventh in a 5 1/2-furlong allowance at Will Rogers Downs, but that was her first start off a three-month layoff. Trainer Michael Biehler (3-for-5, 60% to start this Will Rogers Downs meet) wins at a lofty 24% rate with horses running back for the second time following a layoff, so Tom’s Girl is eligible to improve on Monday.

Throw in hot jockey Alex Birzer (8-for-21, 38% to start the meet), and Tom’s Girl is worth betting to win and keying over #9 Candy’s a Dandy (5-2) in the exacta.

Selections

• #1 Tom’s Girl (5-1)
• #9 Candy’s a Dandy (5-2)
• #5 Sure Shot Shelly (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Tom’s Girl (5-1)
• $10 Exacta: 1 with 9
  Total: $30

Good luck!