Keeneland selections and analysis for Sunday, April 16

April 16th, 2023

We've got a nine-race card Sunday at Keeneland, including the final Kentucky Oaks prep in Race 8!

*Visit for full Keeneland reports all in one place!

1st Race

#3 Ricochet (4-1): Came home third as the favorite in one-mile allowance optional claimer on Turfway’s all-weather while recording 84 Brisnet Speed figure. Drops in class in first start off the claim for John Ortiz, a 22% winner with beaten favorites. Tapiture five-year-old will wear blinkers for first time and picks up Reylu Gutierrez (19% winner in sprints).

#1 American Pure (8-5): Beaten by a nose in lone start at today’s distance (also at Keeneland) when trained by Robertino Diodoro. Since moving to barn of Lindsay Schultz, the American Freedom four-year-old has raced at six furlongs with a 4-1-0-1 record. Schultz is a 20% winner at claiming level. Sharp four-furlong workout April 8. Joel Rosario will pick up mount. 

#5 Picasso (6-1): Faded to finish far back in six-furlong allowance on Jan. 22 at Laurel. Will return off more than two-month layoff for Will Walden, a 24% winner at claiming level. Three back, the Tapit seven-year-old won at today’s distance in a Churchill allowance last June while recording a 91 BRIS figure. Picks up hot jockey Luis Saez (17% winner this meet and 22% winner in sprints).

Longshot to watch:

#7 Sea to Success (20-1): Poor speed figures in last two when racing six furlongs at Oaklawn but can improve off a nearly two-month layoff for McLean Robertson, a 20% at claiming level. Tyler Gaffalione (24% winner this meet) will pick up the mount. Sharp workout April 4.


2nd Race

#7 Sinfiltre (3-1): Moves up in class off dominant maiden win near today’s distance when racing on Gulfstream’s all-weather. Two back, the Uncle Mo filly finished a two-length fifth in a one-mile maiden special weight on turf. Todd Pletcher is a 25% winner with horses coming off a maiden win and a 19% winner in turf starts. Irad Ortiz Jr. (29% winner on turf) will retain the mount.

#5 Kiss You Later (9-5): European shipper makes first start for Christophe Clement (19% winning move) since last seen finishing fifth at Group 3 level in Ireland Sept. 10. Joel Rosario will pick up the mount for the Galileo four-year-old, who will race on Lasix.

#3 Elle Est Forte (7-2): Two back, the five-year-old came home second as the favorite when racing at today’s distance at Gulfstream Jan. 5. Last out, she came up empty in the lane to finish a distant seventh at 1 3/8 miles. Has looked sharp in morning moves leading up to her return to Keeneland, where she finished a good fifth three back when racing 1 1/8 miles. Luis Saez (17% winner this meet) will inherit the mount.


3rd Race

#7 Hooey (4-1): American Pharoah four-year-old makes first start for Wesley Ward, a 40% winner with horses making debut at maiden claiming level. Jeffrey Sanchez is named to ride and is 3-for-7 in sprints.

#8 Donegal Danny (5-2): Maclean’s Music three-year-old raced on all-weather in first two career starts when facing maiden special weight company. Dropping to maiden claiming for Brad Cox (32% winning move) and will race on Lasix a second time. First start since Jan. 27, when far back in seventh after showing good early speed in one-mile Turfway event. Florent Geroux will pick up the mount and strikes at a 34% rate with sprints.

#6 Manchester (7-2): Failed to hit the board in first four starts, all on Turfway’s all-weather. Drops down in class for Jeff Engler and cuts back in distance after racing a mile or farther in last three. Corey Lanerie will inherit the mount for Curlin four-year-old out of a Ghostzapper mare.

AE of note:

#13 In Lieu (3-1): Two second-place finishes and a third from three career starts sprinting 6 1/2 furlongs on Turfway’s all-weather. Jonathan Wong strikes at a 22% rate with horses making first start with the trainer, and rider switch to Reylu Gutierrez a huge plus.


4th Race

#3 Breeze Rider (7-2): Paynter mare set a clear pace from outset but was overtaken near the eighth pole and faltered late to finish fourth to next-out graded stakes winner War Like Goddess in Bewitch (G3) at Keeneland last out, all the way back in April 2022. Will return off nearly a year-long layoff for Steve Manley, an 18% winner at allowance level, and will keep regular rider E.T. Baird (4-for-10 paired with Manley the last two months). Solid works ahead of six-year-old debut. Owns 7-2-2-0 record at today’s distance and is 8-for-16 on turf.

#5 Bubble Rock (2-1): Wired the Mrs. Revere (G2) last out at Churchill Nov. 25 and will return off a more than four-month layoff for Brad Cox (13-4-4-1 this meet) while racing on Lasix the first time (38% winning move for trainer). Flashed 90 Brisnet Speed rating in victory and will drop in class here. Joel Rosario will retain the mount with the More Than Ready four-year-old.

#6 Freedom Speaks (9-2): American Freedom four-year-old is 2-for-2 on turf, including a win in 6 1/2-furlong Music City Stakes last September, but she’s never raced beyond seven furlongs. Will make first start for Darien Rodriguez, a 19% winner first start at a route, and the gray filly will return off a more than five-month layoff. Luis Saez will pick up the mount.


5th Race

#4 Peaceful Waters (9-2): Dominated two back when winning by 12 lengths in a six-furlong allowance at Saratoga last August. Last out, weakened to finish third as the favorite to next-out stakes winner Tejano Twist in an allowance optional claimer at Keeneland. Al Stall a 31% winner with beaten favorites and a 16% winner at allowance level. Luis Saez will retain the mount in Dialed In son’s first start in more than six months. Bullet four-furlong workout April 3.

#8 Under Oath (9-2): Wired 5 1/2-furlong allowance taken off turf two back under Flavien Prat. Switched to turf last out and struggled when sent off as the favorite. Todd Pletcher a 20% winner with horses transitioning from turf to dirt and a 26% winner second off the layoff. Prat will regain the mount and is 3-for-9 the last seven days.

#1 Remuda (6-1): Goes for fourth straight victory after winning three at Tampa Bay Downs. Dominant in last two at sprint distances and will make first start off a three-month layoff for Eoin Harty, a 14% winner with horses that won their last race. Will pick up hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione. Sharp pair of recent workouts.

Also consider for horizontals:

#2 Top of the Charts (8-1): Maclean’s Music gelding comes off a more than eight-month layoff after finishing far back in eighth as the favorite in the one-mile Ellis Park Derby. Switches back to rider Declan Cannon, who won first two starts with the four-year-old. Brian Lynch an 18% winner at allowance level and a 24% winner with beaten favorites.

#6 Fitzpatrick (5-1): May improve with blinkers off in first start in nearly two months for Joe Sharp. Faltered to finish fourth last out in six-furlong Oaklawn sprint. Will regain services of Irad Ortiz Jr., who guided the five-year-old two back when just three-quarters of a length in fourth in allowance optional claimer. Bullet three-furlong workout April 2 at Keeneland.


6th Race

#1 Malibu Springs (4-1): Todd Pletcher is a 22% winner in maiden special weights and a 19% winner with first-time starters. Quality Road colt has posted a trio of sharp recent workouts. John Velazquez is named to ride (30% winner in sprints).

#3 Magic Tap (7-2): Tapit colt is out of a Ghostzapper mare who has produced four winners from five starters, including two stakes winners. Bullet three-furlong workout April 3. Steve Asmussen an 18% winner at maiden special weight level, and Irad Ortiz Jr. is a 26% winner in sprints.

#10 Briterdayzahead (8-1): Led through second call but tired to finish distant fifth on debut in $105K maiden special weight run at seven furlongs last September. Comes off long layoff for Joe Sharp, a 16% winner second career race, and the Girvin colt will race on Lasix for the first time. Picks up services of Tyler Gaffalione and put in a pair of bullet works ahead of second career start.

Also consider for horizontals:

#2 Brigade Commander (8-1): First-time starter for Dallas Stewart. By Hard Spun out of a mare who has one winner from three starters. Hot jockey Flavien Prat (25% winner this meet) named to ride.

#9 Wild Thinker (6-1): Lord Nelson colt finished far back in third on debut in six-furlong maiden special weight at Fair Grounds. Eddie Kenneally a 21% winner with shippers. Luis Saez will pick up the mount. Fast workout April 3.


7th Race

#4 Crispy Cat (8-1): A neck shy of an unbeaten 2-for-2 record since shipping to the U.S. Won last out in five-furlong Texas Glitter Stakes at Gulfstream while recording a 92 Brisnet Speed rating March 25. Jorge Delgado is a 21% winner in non-graded stakes and a 28% winner third off the layoff. Paco Lopez will retain the mount and is 2-for-4 paired with Delgado the last two months.

#5 Gaslight Dancer (8-1): Finished a good sixth to Victoria Road as a 66-1 longshot in the one-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1) last out. Can improve on cutback in distance — was a neck second two back in six-furlong Futurity Stakes (G3) at Aqueduct. Mike Maker a 17% winner with horses coming off a layoff of more than 90 days, and the City of Light colt has put in a number of sharp workouts the last two months. Tyler Gaffalione (27-7-4-1 the last seven days) will pick up the mount.

#6 Private Creed (4-1): Third by 1 1/4 lengths when last racing at today’s distance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1) at Keeneland Nov. 4. Opened three-year-old season with a head second in one-mile Texas Turf Mile Stakes, then switched to dirt and was far back in the Risen Star (G2) at Fair Grounds. Joel Rosario will regain the mount in Jimmy Creed colt’s first start in nearly two months.

Also consider for horizontals:

#7 Bushido (5-1): Unbeaten in two starts. Moves up in class off win in Ontario Racing Stakes at Woodbine Oct. 8. Hot jockey Luis Saez will pick up the mount.

#2 Chiringo (20-1): Can improve in second start off the layoff for George Weaver, a 19% winner with shippers. Irad Ortiz Jr. (29% winner on turf) will inherit the mount and gives the Bolt d’Oro colt a chance at a huge upset. Bullet four-furlong workout March 25.


8th Race

#7 Key of Life (1-1): Wired the six-furlong Purple Martin Stakes at Oaklawn on March 25 while posting a 98 Brisnet Speed rating, the highest last race speed figure among the field by nine points. The Mo Town filly should handle the stretch-out in distance in her third start off a layoff. Brad Cox is a 30% winner with horses that won their last race and a 26% winner in graded stakes. Flavien Prat will regain the mount and is winning at a 25% rate this meet as well as a 36% rate paired with Cox over the last two months. Sharp workout April 8.

#4 Interpolate (9-2): Into Mischief filly won at today’s distance last out in Ruthless Stakes at Aqueduct Feb. 5 while recording a career-best 88 BRIS figure. Will return off a more than two-month layoff for Chad Brown (7-3-0-1 this meet) and will get a rider switch to Irad Ortiz Jr., a 43% winner paired with Brown the last two months. Number of solid works ahead of graded stakes debut.

#3 Stonewall Star (3-1): Romped to 11-length victory at today’s distance in Wide Country Stakes at Laurel following dominant victory in 6 1/2-furlong Franklin Square Stakes at Aqueduct Jan. 22. Horacio De Paz is just an 11% winner with shippers and a 7% winner in graded stakes. Hot jockey Luis Saez is named to ride.


9th Race

#1 Knowing Glance (6-5): Beaten a neck last out in six-furlong claimer at Oaklawn while recording an 86 Brisnet Speed rating and can improve with added distance. Will make second start off a layoff for Mike Maker, a 24% winner at claiming level, and will switch to hot jockey Tyler Gaffalione, a 24% winner this meet and 17% winner in sprints. Put in pair of solid works on April 2 and April 10.

#3 Lamasco (8-1): Raced at a mile and 70 yards on Gulfstream’s all-weather in last two, winning two back in a $35K claimer. Last out, the Summer Front filly set the pace and led through the second call but gave way along the rail rounding the far turn. Cutback in distance and return to dirt can trigger improvement. Luis Saez (22% winner in sprints) will pick up the mount.

#4 Solid Tune (7-2): Was an even second in six-furlong claimer at Churchill two back in November. Switched to turf and cut back to five furlongs, but finished far back in eighth. First-time blinkers and a return to dirt while regaining rider Florent Geroux, a 34% winner in sprints, can help Jimmy Creed four-year-old get to the winner's circle. Whit Beckman is a 15% winner with horses coming off a layoff of 46-90 days.