2025 Kentucky Derby: Which horses are bred to handle mud?

It’s been a rainy week at Churchill Downs, and there’s a strong chance the track will be sloppy for the 151st Kentucky Derby (G1) on Saturday afternoon.

Which of the 19 horses remaining in the field will handle the conditions? It’s hard to say, because many have never run over a wet track. Fortunately, Brisnet sire stats can help us predict which horses will thrive in the mud.

Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances lists the sire of each Kentucky Derby contender, along with the winning percentage of the sire’s progeny when racing over wet tracks. Here’s how the 2025 Kentucky Derby contenders stack up:

Kentucky Derby contenders ranked by the winning percentage of their sire’s progeny when racing over wet tracks:

1. Chunk of Gold (23%)
2. Owen Almighty (21%)
3. American Promise (20%)
3. Burnham Square (20%)
3. Final Gambit (20%)
6. Tiztastic (19%)
7. Citizen Bull (18%)
7. Journalism (18%)
7. Sovereignty (18%)
10. Luxor Cafe (17%)
10. Publisher (17%)
10. Render Judgment (17%)
10. Sandman (17%)
14. Coal Battle (16%)
14. East Avenue (16%)
14. Neoequos (16%)
17. Baeza (15%)
17. Flying Mohawk (15%)
19. Admire Daytona (12%)

Louisiana Derby (G2) runner-up Chunk of Gold tops the chart since he’s a son of Preservationist, who sires a lofty 23% winner in the mud. Owen Almighty, American Promise, Burnham Square, and Final Gambit likewise rank highly.

RELATED: Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Chunk of Gold

Brisnet Ultimate Past Performances also lists the winning percentage of wet-track starters sired by the dam sire of each Kentucky Derby. Here’s how they rank by this metric:

Kentucky Derby contenders ranked by the winning percentage of their dam sire’s progeny when racing over wet tracks:

1. American Promise (20%)
1. East Avenue (20%)
3. Citizen Bull (19%)
3. Owen Almighty (19%)
3. Sandman (19%)
6. Coal Battle (18%)
6. Journalism (18%)
8. Admire Daytona (17%)
8. Final Gambit (17%)
8. Sovereignty (17%)
8. Tiztastic (17%)
12. Flying Mohawk (16%)
12. Publisher (16%)
12. Render Judgment (16%)
15. Chunk of Gold (15%)
15. Burnham Square (15%)
15. Luxor Cafe (15%)
18. Neoequos (14%)
19. Baeza (12%)

American Promise and Owen Almighty remain in the top three on this chart, but Chunk of Gold slips to 15th place, and East Avenue climbs from 14th on the sire chart to co-first on the dam sire chart.

Now let’s combine the mud winning percentages of the sires and dam sires into single numbers and rank the Kentucky Derby contenders accordingly:

Kentucky Derby contenders ranked by combining the winning percentages of their sire’s progeny and dam’s sire’s progeny into a single number:

1. Owen Almighty (40)
2. Chunk of Gold (38)
3. American Promise (37)
3. Citizen Bull (37)
3. Final Gambit (37)
6. East Avenue (36)
6. Journalism (36)
6. Sandman (36)
6. Tiztastic (36)
10. Burnham Square (35)
11. Sovereignty (35)
12. Coal Battle (34)
13. Publisher (33)
13. Render Judgment (33)
15. Luxor Cafe (32)
16. Flying Mohawk (31)
17. Neoequos (30)
18. Admire Daytona (29)
19. Baeza (27)

Based on the wet-track winning percentages of both sires and dam sires, Tampa Bay Derby (G3) winner Owen Almighty—a son of Speightstown out of a mare by Bayern—is bred to excel racing over a sloppy track.

RELATED: Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Owen Almighty

Chunk of Gold, American Promise, Citizen Bull, and Final Gambit also warrant respect. The numbers are particularly promising for Final Gambit since he’s yet to race on dirt, so any clue suggesting he’ll handle the switch from synthetic is encouraging.

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