How Keeler Johnson is betting the 2026 Kentucky Derby

Note: This story has been updated following the scratch of The Puma.

As I outlined when sharing my fair odds for the 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1), I view this year’s Run for the Roses as a wide-open race with many possible win contenders.

This complicates my betting strategy because spreading deep with many horses makes playing exactas risky (the payoff might be less than the expenditure), and it also makes the superfecta and Super High 5 too expensive to play on a reasonable budget.

Therefore, the trifecta is where I’ll focus my attention. It offers the right blend of risk vs. reward—the chance for a solid payoff without breaking the bank.

Keeler Johnson's 2026 Kentucky Derby: wagers

• $1 Trifecta: 6 with 1,7,12 with 1,7,8,12,14,15,18,19 ($21)
• $1 Trifecta: 6 with 1,7,8,12,14,15,18,19 with 1,7,12 ($21)
• $1 Trifecta: 6 with 1,7,12 with 1,7,12 ($6)
• $1 Trifecta: 1,7,12 with 6 with 1,7,8,12,14,15,18,19 ($21)
• $1 Trifecta: 1,7,12 with 1,7,8,12,14,15,18,19 with 6 ($21)
  Total: $90

My top choice is #6 Commandment (6-1), who finished fast from behind a slow pace to win the Florida Derby (G1) over a deep field, including #9 The Puma (who has scratched from the Kentucky Derby) and #12 Chief Wallabee (8-1). Given the race shape, Commandment had no business closing from last place to snag top honors, but by clocking his final three furlongs in a blazing :36.52, he got up to win by a nose.

I believe the 2026 Kentucky Derby will unfold with a fast pace courtesy of UAE Derby (G2) runner-up #17 Six Speed (50-1), so Commandment should receive a more favorable setup on Saturday. I’ll play him on top of three of my five trifecta tickets, then cover for the possibility of him finishing second or third on the remaining two tickets.

Underneath, I’ll emphasize Chief Wallabee, #1 Renegade (4-1), and #7 Danon Bourbon (20-1).

Renegade exits a fast-finishing triumph in the Arkansas Derby (G1), in which he rocketed his final furlong in :11.84 to dominate by four lengths. Danon Bourbon is shipping in from Japan, where he’s gone 3-for-3 while repeatedly clocking quick finishing times.

I’ll round out my tickets with Santa Anita Derby (G1) 1-2 finishers #8 So Happy (15-1) and #14 Potente (20-1), Louisiana Derby (G2) winner #15 Emerging Market (15-1), runaway Blue Grass (G1) conqueror #18 Further Ado (6-1), and Louisiana Derby third-place finisher #19 Golden Tempo (30-1), using them for as high as second place.

If my preferred combination comes in—Commandment on top with some combination of Renegade, Danon Bourbon, and Chief Wallabee finishing second and third—I’ll cash the trifecta for a $3 base bet amount, helping counterbalance the generally low odds of my top choices. Any other winning ticket will cash for a $1 base amount.

Good luck!