Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch: Blacksmith scores for Baffert

In an unusual oddity, this week’s Kentucky Derby Maiden Watch is led by a horse who has already proven his worth on the Road to the Kentucky Derby: Blacksmith, from the barn of six-time Kentucky Derby (G1)-winning trainer Bob Baffert.

Four of Blacksmith’s five career starts have come in maiden special weights. But he also contested the Los Alamitos Futurity (G2) last fall, in which he rallied boldly down the homestretch to finish second by 1 1/4 lengths against his Grade 1-placed stablemate Litmus Test.

Blacksmith

Blacksmith’s breakthrough win came on Friday in a one-mile maiden special weight at Santa Anita. It marked his second try over the configuration; in an identical race on Jan. 9, he gained four lengths through a quick :12.29 final furlong to finish third by one length.

A change in tactics helped Blacksmith score his first win. Way back in his debut on Oct. 25, Blacksmith showed enough early speed to track pace fractions of :22.43 and :44.82 in a 6 1/2-furlong sprint. He recaptured that speed on Friday, racing in second position as stablemate Authentic Patriot carved out splits of :22.99, :46.77, and 1:10.99.

Tracking a quick pace left Blacksmith a little leg-weary in the homestretch, as he clocked his final quarter-mile in :26.55 per the Equibase GPS result chart. But that was still sufficient to draw clear and dominate by 3 3/4 lengths in 1:37.54.

Having secured his maiden win, a return to the Kentucky Derby trail seems likely for Blacksmith. In 2018, Baffert sent February maiden winner Restoring Hope to compete in the Wood Memorial (G2) at Aqueduct, and Blacksmith could potentially follow a similar path to avoid facing stablemates in the Santa Anita Derby (G1).

Tariff Mindset

It sounds like a tilt at the Kentucky Derby is unlikely for Tariff Mindset, a Triple Crown nominee trained by Chad Brown. But the June 6 Belmont (G1)—the third leg of the Triple Crown—could be in the cards.

A son of 2020 Belmont winner Tiz the Law, Tariff Mindset sold for $250,000 as a yearling and conducted much of his pre-debut training in Florida before shipping to New York for a one-mile maiden special weight on Saturday at Aqueduct.

The trip proved worthwhile. Despite breaking slowly and dropping 11 lengths off the early pace, Tariff Mindset steadily gained ground into fractions of :23.54, :47.39, and 1:13.42. He was still 3 1/2 lengths behind the leaders with a furlong remaining, but surged in the shadow of the wire to win by a nose in 1:40.37.

Brown later told the New York Racing Association that Tariff Mindset could aim for the Belmont by way of the May 9 Peter Pan (G3) at Aqueduct.

Autobahn

The third time was the charm for Autobahn. The longer the better seems to be his motto when it comes to race distances.

Fifth in his debut sprinting six furlongs, Autobahn improved to third place when making his second start in a one-turn mile. His third run under colors came on Saturday in a 1 1/8-mile maiden special weight at Gulfstream Park, his first start around two turns.

Autobahn wasn’t in any hurry to get going, rating fifth by about seven lengths through quick fractions of :22.90 and :46.79. But as the pace decelerated sharply, with a third quarter-mile in :25.75 and a fourth in :27.28, Autobahn took over and drew off through a slow :14.87 final furlong to trounce his rivals by 5 3/4 lengths in 1:54.69.

Only time will tell if Autobahn proves fast enough to compete on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, but the son of 2016 Kentucky Derby winner Nyquist is progressing in the right direction for Kentucky Derby-winning trainer Brad Cox. Don’t count this Triple Crown nominee out of the mix.

Violence in Red

Violence in Red debuted for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen in a six-furlong maiden special weight on Jan. 3 at Oaklawn Park. After dueling for the lead through splits of :22.22 and :46.08, the son of Violence tired to finish eighth, beaten 9 1/2 lengths by the winner and 5 1/2 lengths by runner-up Biloba.

It’s safe to say Violence in Red improved dramatically when making his second start over the same conditions last Thursday. This time, the chestnut colt dashed to a clear lead through fractions of :21.78 and :45.57 before drawing clear to trounce Biloba by 4 1/2 lengths in 1:10.57.

Violence in Red’s pedigree is geared toward sprinting, and he isn’t nominated to the Triple Crown, so the Kentucky Derby might be an unlikely goal. But Violence in Red’s rapid improvement warrants watching.

Top maiden winner of the week: Blacksmith

Honorable mention: Tariff Mindset