Kentucky Derby pedigree profile: Nearly

Dueling for the lead through hot pace fractions didn’t stop Nearly from dominating the Holy Bull (G3) on the Road to the Kentucky Derby.

Pressing splits of :22.82 and :45.96 over 1 1/16 miles would have caused many horses to falter, but Nearly drew off down the homestretch to score by 5 3/4 lengths, emerging as a serious contender for the 2026 Kentucky Derby (G1).

Nearly is the latest son of red-hot stallion Not This Time to take aim at the Run for the Roses. Not This Time already has UAE 2000 Guineas (G3) winner Six Speed on the 2026 Derby trail, and past Road to the Kentucky Derby prep winners sired by Not This Time include Risen Star (G2) hero Magnitude, Fountain of Youth (G2) conqueror Simplification, Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) winner Final Gambit, and Lecomte (G3) victor Disco Time.

Simplification and Final Gambit performed respectably in the Kentucky Derby, recording fourth-place finishes. But Not This Time’s best runner to date, Epicenter, fared even better on the first Saturday in May. After winning the Louisiana Derby (G2), Risen Star (G2), and Gun Runner S. on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, Epicenter ran second in the Derby itself, beaten only three-quarters of a length.

Epicenter went on to finish second in the Preakness (G1) and later won the Travers (G1), reiterating his prowess over classic distances on dirt. But Not This Time is a versatile sire, and his best runners have excelled over a wide variety of distances and surfaces.

Indeed, Nearly has sired top-notch turf sprinters like Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1) winner Cy Fair, record-setting Jaipur (G1) victor Cogburn, and Franklin-Simpson winner Troubleshooting. He’s sired elite dirt dashers such as Grade 1 winners Sibelius, Goal Oriented, Just One Time, and Princess Noor. Some of his runners have starred as grass milers, including Coolmore Turf Mile (G1) winner Rhetorical and Matriarch (G1) heroine Sacred Wish. Up to the Mark earned champion turf male honors after winning three Grade 1 grass races over distances from one mile to 1 1/4 miles. And Next has proven almost unstoppable in dirt marathons, counting the Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance (G2) and two editions of the Brooklyn (G2) among his big wins.

Not This Time’s impressive versatility as a stallion isn’t surprising when you consider his own pedigree. His sire is Giant’s Causeway, a multiple Group 1 winner on turf who also finished a close second in the Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) on dirt. Giant’s Causeway is a source of multi-surface versatility and stamina at stud, but Not This Time’s dam—Miss Macy Sue—brings speed to the genetic equation. She won the Winning Colors (G3) and a few other stakes sprinting, and prior to Not This Time, she foaled Liam’s Map, a Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile (G1) winner.

Nearly’s triumph in the Holy Bull suggests he’s developing into one of Not This Time’s quality dirt racers rather than a turf horse. But does the abundant early speed he demonstrated suggest he’s more likely to become a sprinter/miler than a classic route racer like Epicenter?

It’s a tough question. The rest of Nearly’s pedigree gives off mixed signals. His dam, Ib Prospecting, was a dirt sprinter who scored two claiming wins sprinting six furlongs. Ib Prospecting, in turn, was produced by Stormy Frolic, a four-time stakes winner racing 1 1/16 miles on dirt. And Stormy Frolic’s dam, Lindsay Frolic, won seven stakes—including the Sabin H. (G3)—over conditions ranging from five furlongs on turf to 1 1/8 miles on dirt.

This female family is geared toward sprints and miles, and the miler tendency is reiterated by Ib Prospecting’s half-sister Frolic’s Revenge, produced by Stormy Frolic. Frolic’s Revenge scored five stakes wins over distances from one mile to 1 1/16 miles on dirt and turf.

One stouter name in the bottom half of Nearly’s pedigree is Mineshaft, the sire of Ib Prospecting. Mineshaft earned 2003 Horse of the Year honors after winning four Grade 1 races, including the Jockey Club Gold Cup (G1) and Suburban H. (G1) over 1 1/4 miles.

At stud, Mineshaft has sired notable winners over a variety of distances, but his best have been route racers, including Kentucky Derby runner-up Nehro, Saudi Cup (G1) conqueror Senor Buscador, Breeders’ Cup Classic runner-up Effinex, and Belmont (G1) runner-up Fly Down.

Meanwhile, daughters of Mineshaft have foaled 1 1/4-mile Santa Anita H. (G1) winner Express Train, 1 1/16-mile Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) heroine Vequist, 1 1/8-mile Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Cathryn Sophia, and Godolphin Mile (G2) winner Coal Front, who also won three graded sprint stakes.

In short, the pedigree of Nearly is packed with a remarkable array of influences from speed to stamina and from dirt to turf. He could follow Epicenter’s lead and develop into a Triple Crown type, or he could turn into a dirt sprinter—or a turf miler—or anything in between. With so many possibilities in store, only time (and more racing experience) will reveal which configuration is most suitable for Nearly.