2026 Kentucky Derby Picks: Predictions and Odds for All Horses Before 152nd Race

Three win bets for a variety of players

Play it safe with a $10 win on Renegade (#1, 5/1): Todd Pletcher's Arkansas Derby (G1) winner is the most straightforward case in the field. Irad Ortiz Jr. reportedly had a "ton of horse" under a tight hold in that prep, and the official margin of 4 lengths could have been 7 or 8. Renegade combines tactical speed (classified as a Presser) with a devastating late kick, and that combination has historically been lethal at Churchill Downs. His run style fits the historical data: front-half runners throughout account for 62% of Derby winners since 2000. At 5/1, the $10 win ticket returns roughly $60 if he gets the job done.

The sweet spot is a bet of $10 win on Commandment (#6, 7/1): Commandment's Brisnet Late Pace figures tell the story: 104 and 121 in his two-route starts. That 121 is elite. He won at Churchill Downs as a maiden, meaning the track is already familiar, and his Florida Derby victory was described as "better than it appeared" — he navigated the inside of a compromised track and still galloped out full of energy. At 7/1, a $10 win bet returns approximately $80, and this is the horse multiple analysts landed on as their primary selection.

The price play for $10 to win on Golden Tempo (#19, 25-35/1): Golden Tempo's Brisnet Speed Rating has climbed every single start: 84, 88, 91, 100. That ascending trajectory is exactly what you want in a horse heading into the Derby. He ran 3rd in the Louisiana Derby (G2), missing second by a length and finishing more than 5 lengths clear of the next horse. Trainer Cherie DeVaux noted he has "matured both physically and mentally" and is peaking now. A $10 win ticket at 25/1 returns $260.

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Kentucky Derby 152 Bets and Fades for consideration

POST 1 - RENEGADE (6-1)
BET: Recent Grade 1 winner at Oaklawn, hot jockey Irad Ortiz Jr., consistent 97+ speed ratings
FADE: Only moderate pace figures, moderate distance experience, faces tougher competition

POST 2 - ALBUS (44-1)
BET: Won most recent race at Aqueduct, trainer Riley Mott is competent with winners
FADE: Poor speed figures, heavy odds suggest lack of confidence, limited graded stakes success

POST 3 - INTREPIDO (47-1)
BET: Sharp 4-furlong workout, early pace ability with 95 E1 figure
FADE: Shipper with poor trainer record (8% wins in 25 starts), unproven at Derby distance

POST 4 - LITMUS TEST (25-1)
BET: Blinkers added today may help; 35-day freshening with strong trainer in Bob Baffert
FADE: Poor recent speed figures, moderate class level, third off layoff horses unreliable

POST 5 - RIGHT TO PARTY
SCRATCHED

POST 6 - COMMANDMENT (5-1)
BET: Won Grade 1 at Gulfstream, career-high 100 speed rating, excellent recent form, live odds favorite
FADE: Only 35 days since last race is short rest, moderate early pace could be caught

POST 7 - DANON BOURBON (14-1)
BET: Undefeated in 3 career starts, won at Nakayama (top Asian competition), improving profile
FADE: Completely new racing environment/surface, limited U.S. experience, class jump significant

POST 8 - SO HAPPY (5-1)
BET: Won Grade 1 at Santa Anita, 103 speed rating, excellent tactical positioning ability
FADE: Poor shipper trainer record (6% wins in 44 starters), only 28 days since last race

POST 9 - THE PUMA
SCRATCHED

POST 10 - WONDER DEAN (25-1)
BET: Won UAE Derby (G2), international experience, 35-day rest suggests peak
FADE: Zero U.S. racing experience, dirt surface unfamiliar, poor pace figures (all zeros)

POST 11 - INCREDIBOLT (25-1)
BET: Won Virginia Derby, sharp 4-furlong workout April 26, consistent 87 speed rating
FADE: 49-day layoff concerning, class jump from Grade 3 to Derby, significant, modest trainer record

POST 12 - CHIEF WALLABEE (7-1)
BET: Blinkers added today, finished 3rd in Florida Derby, consistent 100 speed, by Constitution
FADE: Speed figures show a decline recently, blinker addition suggests previous issues, moderate class

POST 13 - SILENT TACTIC
SCRATCHED

POST 14 - POTENTE (18-1)
BET: Sharp 5-furlong workout April 26, high early pace (103), ran 2nd Santa Anita Derby
FADE: Failed as favorite in last race, moderate late pace figures, Bob Baffert has modest Derby success

POST 15 - EMERGING MARKET (9-1)
BET: Undefeated in 2 starts, won Louisiana Derby (G2), expert pick #1, trainer Chad Brown excellent
FADE: Limited racing experience (only 2 races), significant class jump to Grade 1, steep odds suggest vulnerability

POST 16 - PAVLOVIAN (47-1)
BET: Ran 2nd recent graded race, 101 best speed rating shows capability
FADE: Poor graded stakes trainer record (7% in 190 starts), moderate pace figures, long odds justified

POST 17 - SIX SPEED (35-1)
BET: Ran 2nd recent race, tactically flexible with mid-pace ability
FADE: Completely new to the U.S., poor speed profile, no trainer graded stakes success

POST 18 - FURTHER ADO (6-1)
BET: Won Blue Grass (G1), highest last-race speed rating, best dirt speed in field, John Velazquez aboard
FADE: Only 28-day rest between races, moderate early pace suggests vulnerable to pace setters

POST 19 - GOLDEN TEMPO (25-1)
BET: High percentage jockey, hot trainer/jockey combo (5 races in 14 days), finished 3rd in the Louisiana Derby
FADE: Only 28 days since last race, short rest, moderate speed figures, trainer has minimal graded stakes success

POST 20 - FULLEFFORT
SCRATCHED

POST 21 - GREAT WHITE (23-1)
BET: Gelding status shows durability, good early pace (93), competitive class level
FADE: Poor trainer graded stakes record (6% in 16 starts), weak speed figures, questionable distance aptitude

POST 22 - OCELLI (77-1)
BET: Longer distance offers an improvement opportunity, a third-place recent finish shows capability
FADE: Best speed rating well below winning average, poor graded stakes trainer record (3% in 54 starts), jockey change

POST 23 - ROBUSTA (76-1)
BET: Trainer Doug O'Neill, two-time Derby winner, strong early pace (100-103)
FADE: Declining form in last race, poor trainer graded stakes record (7% in 190 starts), showing fatigue

POST 24 - CORONA DE ORO
SCRATCHED

Renegade on the rail for Repole, Irad

Mike Repole’s tale of Derby woe stretches over 15 years, particularly the crushing scratches of juvenile champions Uncle Mo (2011) and Forte (2023). His fortunes promised to revive with this spring’s smashing Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Renegade. Co-owned in partnership with breeders Robert and Lawana Low, Renegade romped to Derby favoritism once familiar rival Paladin was ruled out by injury. 

Renegade also received a vote of confidence from five-time Eclipse Award-winning rider Irad Ortiz Jr., who is likewise still seeking his first Derby trophy. Ortiz chose him over other major contenders, Commandment and Further Ado.

But the rosy scenario was complicated when Renegade drew the rail. It’s been 40 years since the last Derby winner broke from post 1, Ferdinand (1986). On the plus side, the 20-horse starting gate that was instituted in 2020 has ameliorated the challenge to some degree, and Renegade has the kind of explosive kick to work out a trip. 

If Renegade can furnish a Derby breakthrough for Repole and Ortiz, he’d also propel Hall of Fame trainer Todd Pletcher into a tie for third on the all-time list. A two-time Derby winner, courtesy of Super Saver (2010) and Always Dreaming (2017), Pletcher would join the legendary “Sunny Jim” Fitzsimmons and Max Hirsch with a third Derby victory.

Cox double-handed in pursuit of a Derby win on the day

Louisville native Brad Cox has been loaded for bear on the Road to the Kentucky Derby, training winners of three of the most lucrative final preps – Commandment, Blue Grass (G1) romper Further Ado, and Jeff Ruby Steaks (G3) scorer Fulleffort. But Fulleffort was diagnosed with a bone chip in his left hind ankle, forcing him out of Derby 152. Cox is still double-handed with the dynamic duo proven on dirt. 

Cox is a Derby winner as a matter of historical record. Yet his Mandaloun was awarded the victory long after raceday, following the adjudication of the positive test by first-past-the-post Medina Spirit. An actual win on the racetrack would be far more meaningful and would warrant a proper hometown celebration of the trainer who grew up near Churchill Downs. 

Ironically, the jockeys aboard Further Ado and Commandment – Hall of Famer John Velazquez and Luis Saez, respectively – both lost an apparent Derby winner to disqualification. 

Saez guided Maximum Security to a front-running score in the 2019 Derby, only to be demoted for interference rounding the far turn. He now picks up the ride on a colt with a contrasting running style, Commandment, in hopes of gaining an official win. 

Velazquez would have won his fourth Derby aboard Medina Spirit. If Further Ado can put him back in the winner’s circle for an official number four, Velazquez would join Bill Shoemaker in a joint second in the record book. 

Post 1 – Renegade (4-1 favorite) Bet: That Arkansas Derby was a jaw-dropper — he was dead last turning for home and still demolished the field, suggesting he has a massive engine and plenty of room to improve. Pletcher with Irad is as formidable a Derby combo as exists. Fade: Just two career wins and a very short résumé for the favorite in the most demanding race on the calendar. The rail post is historically unkind, and a horse who needs to rally from last needs racing room he might not get.

Post 2 – Albus (30-1) Bet: Improving horses with upward trajectories are exactly the ones who can spring upsets at Churchill. Going maiden to Wood Memorial winner in one step is genuinely impressive, and Riley Mott is a craftsman. Fade: The final Wood Memorial at Aqueduct may not have been a particularly deep renewal, and he's still lightly seasoned for 1 1/4 miles against a field full of Grade 1 winners. The market at 30-1 is pretty clear-eyed here.

Post 3 – Intrepido (50-1) Bet: His American Pharoah upset last fall showed he's capable of beating top-class horses on a big day, which is exactly the kind of form line you need in your corner at a long price. Fade: That was months ago. He's gone runner-up in the Lewis and fourth in the Santa Anita Derby since — a regression pattern that's hard to bet against at any price. The 50-1 is the market telling you something.

Post 4 – Litmus Test (30-1) Bet: He won the Los Alamitos Futurity at two with authority, Baffert is adding blinkers back, which helped him as a juvenile, and Bob Baffert's Derby record is unmatched. Fade: He has simply not trained on. A third in the Rebel, followed by a seventh in the Arkansas Derby, is the wrong shape for a horse going into the biggest race of the year. Blinker additions don't fix talent gaps.

Post 6 – Commandment (6-1) Bet: Four straight wins, including a Grade 1 Florida Derby, make him one of the few horses in the field carrying genuine momentum into Saturday. Brad Cox and Luis Saez are a top-shelf team, and strong finishers tend to thrive at Churchill. Fade: Every win in that streak came at Gulfstream Park, which has a unique configuration and surface. He's never been asked to perform on a different stage, and Churchill Downs at Derby distance is about as different a test as there is.

Post 7 – Danon Bourbon (20-1) Bet: Unbeaten horses with unknown ceilings can be dangerous at big prices. Japanese horses have been steadily improving their Derby showings, and a fresh horse with no bad races on his card is a clean slate. Fade: He's never raced on left-handed turns, never faced American competition, and is making his black-type debut in the Kentucky Derby. That's a lot of unknowns stacked on top of each other.

Post 8 – So Happy (15-1) Bet: He answered the distance question emphatically in the Santa Anita Derby (G1) after winning the San Vicente, and Mike Smith has won this race before and knows how to get a horse home. Fade: Runhappy is a sprint-oriented sire, and the pedigree question at a mile and a quarter is real. He was also only third in the San Felipe before the Derby win, so his form isn't a straight line upward.

Post 10 – Wonder Dean (30-1) Bet: He clearly relished the extra ground in the UAE Derby and got the job done, suggesting genuine staying ability — a quality that often goes undervalued in Derby wagering. Fade: His competition came in the Middle East, and a Saudi Derby fourth suggests inconsistency. The jump from that circuit to a 20-horse Churchill field on the first Saturday in May is enormous.

Post 11 – Incredibolt (20-1) Bet: A horse who can win a G3 at two, regroup from a flop, and roar back to win again has shown mental resilience. The Virginia Derby win was authoritative. Fade: The Holy Bull flop is still on the résumé, and the Virginia Derby doesn't carry the same prep race weight as Florida or Arkansas routes. His form has a boom-or-bust quality that's risky in a field this deep.

Post 12 – Chief Wallabee (8-1) Bet: He's run well in every Florida prep — second in the Fountain of Youth, third in the Florida Derby — and Bill Mott is one of the best trainers alive. He's a reliable, consistent animal, and 8-1 is fair value for that profile. Fade: Consistent and "second/third" isn't how Derby winners are made. He's shown he can be competitive in Gulfstream preps, but hasn't put his head in front against top company. The concern is a ceiling.

Post 13 – Great White (50-1) Bet: He's an upset winner who clearly belongs on synthetic and showed he could switch surfaces in the Blue Grass. Longshots who come off the also-eligible list are sometimes overlooked in the pools. Fade: He was fifth in the Blue Grass after the surface switch and only made this field because Silent Tactic scratched. At 50-1, you're betting on a horse the connections didn't originally design for this moment.

Post 14 – Potente (20-1) Bet: He won the San Felipe in convincing fashion, and Bob Baffert's Derby record stands alone. When Baffert has a horse ready, they tend to run their race. Fade: He was sent off the favorite in the Santa Anita Derby and succumbed to pace pressure — a worrying sign when heading into a full field at Churchill, where the pace dynamics will be intense.

Post 15 – Emerging Market (15-1) Bet: Unbeaten, trained by Chad Brown, ridden by Flavien Prat — that's a combination that screams "horse with upside." A colt that has handled everything thrown at him and never been beaten is dangerous. Fade: Two career starts are not a résumé for the Kentucky Derby. The Louisiana Derby win was a narrow one, and there's simply no evidence yet that he can handle a full 20-horse field, the Churchill track, or the added pressure of this stage.

Post 16 – Pavlovian (30-1) Bet: He ground out a hard-fought Sunland Park Derby win and pushed the field in the Louisiana Derby, showing he competes honestly. Doug O'Neill has won this race. Fade: He was outdueled late in the Louisiana Derby, and Sunland Park is among the softer Derby prep venues. Hard to make a case for him at 30-1 when there are more accomplished horses at similar prices.

Post 17 – Six Speed (50-1) Bet: He absolutely dominated the UAE 2000 Guineas and knows how to get to the front and control a race — front-end speed can be a weapon in a Derby where pace scenarios are chaotic. Fade: He tired in the UAE Derby at route distance, which raises genuine questions about whether he gets 1¼ miles on the first Saturday in May. 50-1 for a horse with stamina doubts in a mile-and-a-quarter race is a tough sell.

Post 18 – Further Ado (6-1) Bet: He obliterated the Blue Grass field at Keeneland — a legitimate springboard — and Johnny Velazquez has won this race multiple times and knows Churchill like his backyard. The Gun Runner pedigree fits the distance perfectly. Fade: Post 18 is a serious handicap in a 20-horse field. He'll need to use a lot of energy getting position early, and his Tampa Bay Derby second suggests he's not unbeatable. His best form has come at Keeneland specifically.

Post 19 – Golden Tempo (30-1) Bet: The blinker addition showed a tangible improvement — from mild closer to much sharper performer — and a horse still finding his form can keep improving on the biggest stage. Fade: He's been third twice in Louisiana preps, which is nice but not Derby-winning form. The wide post compounds the challenge, and 30-1 prices are usually 30-1 for a reason.

Ocelli (post 20 area, 25 points) Bet: Tyler Gaffalione rode him to a Wood Memorial third, which means he's pointed in the right direction late in the prep season, and he's a horse who has kept improving. Fade: He's a maiden who finished sixth in two prior stakes before that Wood third. Only in the field because of a scratch. Asking a horse who has never won a stakes race — or any race — to beat the best three-year-olds in America is a significant ask.

Robusta (25 points) Bet: He nearly pulled off a 67-1 upset in the San Felipe, which tells you there's ability here. O'Neill has ridden a long shot to Derby glory before. Fade: He faded to last in the Santa Anita Derby after that near-miss, only made the field via scratch, and has just 25 qualifying points. This is a horse who got in the door — not one who forced it open.