Scully: Kentucky Derby Day Spot Plays

My first Kentucky Derby came in 1981 and Saturday’s 152nd running shapes up to be one of the most competitive editions I’ve seen, with seven runners listed between 5-1 and 10-1 odds in the early wagering Friday afternoon: Renegade (5-1), Commandment (6-1), Further Ado (6-1), So Happy (6-1), Chief Wallabee (8-1), The Puma (8-1), and Emerging Market (10-1).

I’ll offer my thoughts on the Kentucky Derby and provide some spot plays on the undercard. There are formidable favorites on the 14-race program at Churchill Downs, and I’ll search for value.

Race 4 – Derby City Distaff (G1)

Splendora has won five consecutive races, competing exclusively in California and facing little adversity in both starts this year. Ways and Means hasn’t raced in 330 days and has lost as the favorite in her first race of the season the past two years. They’ll be overwhelming first and second choices in the wagering.

#1 Usha (9-2) broke her maiden last summer and started to come on at the end of her three-year-old season, recording a convincing win in the La Brea (G1) at Santa Anita when last seen in late December. She’s registered triple-digit Brisnet Speed ratings in two of the last three starts, and I’ll look for Usha to keep showing more as a four-year-old.

Race 5 – TwinSpires Turf Sprint (G2)

Listed as the 6-1 fourth choice, #10 Joe Sheisty (6-1) put his blazing quickness on display when making his second start of the year in the April 4 Shakertown (G2) at Keeneland, sprinting forward to comfortably show the way in a speed-laden field. He weakened late to be fifth, beaten 1 1/2 lengths, in what serves as a perfect prep for his third start of the form cycle. The Eric Foster-trained gelding prefers Churchill Downs’ turf, recording a fine win in the Mighty Beau S. last summer, and I like his chances on the front end.

Race 9 – American Turf (G1)

#1 Street Beast (15-1) banged his head in the starting gate when favored in the John Battaglia Memorial two starts ago. He still showed his typical speed, easily beating rivals to the fore at the break, but the incident at the starting gate clearly affected him as he began a retreat to last by the backstretch. Ben Colebrook couldn’t get Street Beast back to the worktab for about a month, and the colt appeared a race short when turning in a commendable effort in the Transylvania (G3) last out, weakening to be beaten a length in fourth in deep stretch. Street Beast has a shot to upset rivals with his best Saturday.

Race 12 – Kentucky Derby (G1)

I became a fan of Gustavo Delgado when watching Mage upset the 2023 Kentucky Derby. The colt had only a maiden win to his credit and never proved to be a serious win threat in three subsequent starts; Delgado knew how to get the absolute most from Mage on the first Saturday in May.

#9 The Puma has performed at a higher level than Mage; he possesses more gears, and the stalker’s push-button acceleration was on display in the Florida Derby (G1) and Tampa Bay Derby (G3), powering past rivals on the far turn to reach the front by upper stretch. The Puma will look to attack rivals on the far turn of the Kentucky Derby, and that’s where the race is often won.

Good luck!