LIVE 2026 Breeders' Cup predictions, picks, and analysis

Thank you to everyone that joined us today as we shared our early thoughts two weeks before the start of Breeders' Cup weekend. 

Don't forget to join us throughout Breeders' Cup weekend for more LIVE coverage during race day on Friday and Saturday! 

Future Stars Friday: Friday, October 30

• Juvenile Turf Sprint | 2:55 PM
• Juvenile Fillies | 3:35 PM 
• Juvenile Fillies Turf | 4:15 PM 
• Juvenile | 4:55 PM 
• Juvenile Turf | 5:35 PM 

Championship Saturday: Saturday, October 31

• Dirt Mile | 1:10 PM 
• Turf Sprint | 1:48 PM 
• Sprint | 2:26 PM 
• Filly and Mare Turf | 3:04 PM 
• Filly and Mare Sprint | 3:42 PM 
• Mile | 4:20 PM 
• Distaff | 4:48 PM 
• Turf | 5:36 PM 
• Classic | 6:16 PM 

Sun Goddess, winner of the Phoenix (G1), Moyglare Stud (G1), and Cheveley Park (G1) sprinting six furlongs in Europe this year, is shaping up as a heavy favorite to nab the Breeders' Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) for trainer Aidan O'Brien, who has won two of the last four editions of this race.If there's one chink in Sun Goddess' armor, it's the fact she's been competing over straight (or largely straight) courses. 

At Keeneland, she'll tackle two tight turns, which is a meaningful obstacle to overcome.This could open the door for Domestic Agenda to surprise for trainer Chad Brown, a six-time winner of the Juvenile Fillies Turf. Domestic Agenda is 2-for-2 and looked great launching a last-to-first rally to dominate the Miss Grillo (G2) by 4 1/2 lengths. Don't count her out of win contention.

-Keeler Johnson

The Breeders’ Cup Distaff (G1), often a clash of the generations, does not figure to have a serious three-year-old contender in this year’s renewal. The trio of older mares expected to line up look simply too tough on paper.

The field is led by Nitrogen, last year’s champion three-year-old filly and Distaff runner-up at Del Mar. Although her overall record this year has been mixed, two outstanding efforts – a 12 3/4-length score in the Ogden Phipps (G1) and a second to Sovereignty in the Whitney (G1) – yielded Brisnet Speed ratings of 110 and 104, respectively.

Nitrogen’s potential Achillies heel is that she has rarely run so fast outside Saratoga. That gives hope that Fully Subscribed can possibly reverse the exaggerated margin between her and Nitrogen in the Ogden Phipps. Fully Subscribed has since won three straight, including her own procession in the Personal Ensign (G1) as well as a track-and-distance triumph in the Spinster (G1), albeit against only two rivals.

The third contender is Splendora, last year’s Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1) heroine. She’s won five of six this year, four of those wins around two turns. However, she’s been beating relatively modest competition while traveling no farther than 1 1/16 miles.

-Vance Hanson

Although it’s just a two-week turnaround from Saturday’s Champion (G1) at Ascot to the Breeders’ Cup, the 1 1/4-mile feature serves as a “Win and You’re In” for the Turf (G1).

The Champion features a marquee rematch between Calandagan and Ombudsman, the one-two from last year. Calandagan doesn’t have the Breeders’ Cup on his agenda, with a title defense in the Japan Cup (G1) uppermost in mind.

Godolphin’s Ombudsman already earned a Turf ticket with his repeat in the Prince of Wales’s (G1) over this course and distance during Royal Ascot, but co-trainer John Gosden has indicated that the Champion is likely to be his last hurrah. The Breeders’ Cup has remained a back-up option if the ground at Ascot turned soft. In that case, Ombudsman would skip a Champions Day slog and ship to Keeneland for the prospect of better going. That insurance plan is unlikely to be invoked, unless it rains more than forecast on Friday.

There is a Champion entrant who is ambitious to wheel back for the Turf: Bay City Roller. The George Scott trainee just ran a mighty second in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) to Daryz, the historic two-time winner, on ground that was supposed to be a bit quick for him.

Bay City Roller took the summer off after crushing the Coronation Cup (G1) on desperately rain-softened going at Epsom, where Calandagan struggled without traction in fourth. As a result, Bay City Roller is comparatively fresh for this time of the season. He also boasts a big win over Turf rival Tiffany in last November’s Grosser Preis von Bayern (G1) on similarly soft ground.

Other high-class opponents in the Champion, Constitution River and Almaqam, are unlikely to advance to the Turf. Aidan O’Brien’s Constitution River was recently upset in the Irish Champion (G1) by Breeders’ Cup-bound Hotazhell, who will reportedly cross-enter the Mile (G1) and the Turf.

O’Brien’s leading candidates for the Turf, dual French classic heroine Diamond Necklace and Irish Derby (G1) hero Benvenuto Cellini, are both exiting the Arc. Diamond Necklace ran an admirable third from post 16, while Benvenuto Cellini blew the start but finished fast in ninth.

Last year’s Turf upsetter, erstwhile hurdler Ethical Diamond, will try to become the fourth two-time winner after High Chaparral (2002-03), Conduit (2008-09), and Rebel’s Romance (2022, 2024). But the Willie Mullins veteran doesn’t quite have their profile to pull it off. The third-placer from the 2025 Turf, Godolphin’s El Cordobes, hasn’t enhanced his prospects to fare better this time either.

The deep European squad is expected to include Survie, who defeated males in the “Win and You’re In” Christophe Clement Turf (G1) at Saratoga, and possibly Wathnan Racing’s Map of Stars, who at one point was considered for Australia’s prestigious Cox Plate (G1).

Japan is sending an intriguing character in Deep Monster, in career-best form this year at the ripe old age of eight. A son of the legendary Deep Impact, Deep Monster beat several high-profile Europeans in Qatar and finished a troubled third to Hong Kong superstar Romantic Warrior in the Champions & Chater Cup (G1).

In the past decade, only one U.S. winner has managed to fend off the internationals in the Turf, Bricks and Mortar (2019). Burnham Square hinted of his potential with a demolition job in the course-and-distance Elkhorn (G2) back in April, and if Keeneland can bring out the best in him again, it wouldn’t be a shock if he leaves his iffy summer form well behind.

For much more extensive coverage of the global formlines, check out my International Scouting Report, which will be available at Brisnet.com during Breeders’ Cup week. 

-Kellie Reilly

The $2 million Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies (G1) at Keeneland on Oct. 30 will feature a pair of unbeaten runners, Alcibiades (G1) winner Emphatic and Del Mar Debutante (G1) romper Miss Monica.

The 1 1/16-mile Juvenile Fillies has produced 10 winners of the Kentucky Oaks (G1) at Churchill Downs the following spring, including Open Mind (1988-89) and Silverbulletday (1998-99) who swept both races.

Emphatic promises to bring speed following a gate-to-wire triumph in the Alcibiades at Keeneland, scoring comfortably by a 1 1/2-length margin. The bay daughter of Nyquist rolled to convincing victories in her first two starts at Colonial Downs and Monmouth Park, and Tyler Gaffalione rides for Brendan Walsh.

Manuka Honey has yet to try two turns, but the unbeaten filly looks built for added ground following a rallying two-length win in the first Road to the Kentucky Oaks series race, the Sept. 12 Pocahontas (G3) at Churchill Downs. Luis Saez rides the exciting dark bay miss for Brian Lynch.

Overlooked following a four-length debut maiden win at Saratoga, Dotsy drew off to win the Frizette (G1) at Belmont Park by a 2 3/4-length margin at 11-1 odds. Trainer John Grabowski, who is based at Finger Lakes, is scheduled to make his first Breeders’ Cup appearance with the gray filly, and Frizette runner-up Rum Twist and third-placer Revenge of the Sis are also considered probable for the Juvenile Fillies.

Domain Expansion switched from turf to dirt and rolled to a seven-length upset in the Oct. 3 Oak Leaf (G2) at Santa Anita, earning her first career win for Leonard Powell. Other California representatives in the mix include Holmby and Crazy Hot Mess, second respectively in the Oak Leaf and Del Mar Debutante.

Pocahontas runner-up Scarlet Begonia and last-out maiden winners Foxiest and Lady of City are also under consideration.

-James Scully

If either of the Aidan O’Brien-trained Diamond Necklace or Precise makes the trip and ends up here, they are obvious Big-win threats. Diamond Necklace exits a wide recent third in the Prix de l’Arc de Triomphe (G1) behind Daryz and runner-up Bay City Roller. It was a solid prep for Diamond Necklace, considering she broke from post 16. She could run here but is more likely to be entered in the Breeders’ Cup Turf (G1).

The possibility of Coolmore’s Starspangledbanner filly Precise running in this year’s Filly & Mare Turf also adds immediate spice and intrigue to the event. The multiple Group one winner was withdrawn from the Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1) last year due to an infection but is hopefully back this year for O’Brien. A recent second in France's Prix de l’Opera (G1) likely sets her up well for this, and she’s also a big threat if she makes the haul over.

The South American-bred Gimme a Nother has found her best stride in Graham Motion's barn, after previously being conditioned by Mike de Kock. The filly exited a game win in the E. P. Taylor (G1) at Woodbine in her final prep and is a perfect 3-for-3 this year, winning 11 of 15 lifetime starts with three runner-up finishes. Her lone poor effort came over a boggy Saratoga turf course in the New York (G1), from which her conditioner wished he’d scratched. With a few minor physical setbacks behind her, the star filly enters the 2026 BC in pristine form. The 12-1 early-morning line is quite attractive, with Hall of Famer John Valasquez likely to ride.

Many of the American hopes will likely rest on Kathynmarissa for conditioner Chad Brown. The daughter of American Pharoah has won four of her last five starts, including back-to-back wins in the Diana (G1) and Flower Bowl (G2). This gal could slip under the betting radar at somewhere between 5 or 6-1.

-Dean Kepplar

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• October 12th - BCBC/CBC Qualifier at Keeneland
• October 18th - BCBC/KDBC Qualifier at Keeneland
• October 25th - BCBC/CBC Qualifier at Keeneland
• October 29th - BCBC Qualifier at Churchill Downs

Three-year-old Englishman could start as a decisive favorite in the Breeders' Cup Sprint (G1) after dominating the Woody Stephens (G1) and H. Allen Jerkens Memorial (G1) in fast times. But those were seven-furlong sprints against his own age group. He'll face older horses for the first time at the Breeders' Cup, and cutting back to six furlongs is a different ballgame.

Fellow sophomore Liam Smith may have upset potential. He set otherworldly fractions of :20.92 and :42.86 when wiring a 6 1/2-furlong $50,000 allowance optional claimer at Del Mar last month by 5 1/2 lengths. That marked his second straight blowout win, following a 12-length drubbing of a $50,000 claimer at Del Mar in which he blazed 6 1/2 furlongs in 1:14.35.Liam Smith has already beaten older rivals, and his blinding early speed could be formidable in the Breeders' Cup Sprint.

-Keeler Johnson

A gaggle of two-year-olds hopes to make the cut in the Oct. 30 Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1), the first Breeders’ Cup event on Future Stars Friday. The battle lines won’t come into focus until Wednesday’s pre-entry announcement, and opinions will firm up after the Oct. 26 draw.

In the meantime, we can venture a couple of ideas: fillies could vie for favoritism, and the projected European brigade figures to have a live longshot or two.

British-based filly Libertango sports outstanding form after trading decisions with the Continent’s leading juvenile, Sun Goddess, who is expected to loom large in the Juvenile Fillies Turf (G1).

Trained by George Boughey, Libertango beat Sun Goddess in the Albany (G3) at Royal Ascot, but the form was reversed last time out in the Cheveley Park (G1). Libertango lost no luster in defeat, since Sun Goddess broke the six-furlong juvenile course record at Newmarket, and both ran much faster than the colts in the Middle Park (G1). Cutting back slightly in trip to 5 1/2 furlongs should suit Libertango.

Perhaps the most impressive U.S. contender is Brickyard Belle, who is 2-for-2 for Miguel Clement. After romping in her debut at Saratoga, she swooped fast and late to get up in the Matron (G3) at Belmont.

Fillies have historically done well in this race, winning twice and placing a few times in its eight runnings. There are other fillies capable of jumping up in this spot, including Wesley Ward’s Ruiva, third in the Queen Mary (G2) at Royal Ascot, and the Andrew Balding-trained Moonrise, who was fourth in the Cheveley Park. Moonrise previously beat males in the Sirenia (G3), a race that can be informative for the Breeders’ Cup since it’s around a turn at Kempton.

At this early stage, one potential longshot of note is Force Noir. By Persian Force, who was fourth in the 2022 Juvenile Turf Sprint, the AMO Racing runner captured a five-furlong race going left-handed at Dundalk. Force Noir was supplemented to the Middle Park and just missed to Orthodox, who would have been a prime player in this race. Force Noir is eligible to improve dropping back in trip, making him a fascinating outsider.

My International Scouting Report, which will be available at Brisnet.com during Breeders’ Cup week, will cover the European and Japanese shippers in detail. 

-Kellie Reilly