Pippin S. exotics plays and field analysis for Oaklawn Jan. 7

January 5th, 2023

Ten older fillies and mares will race 1 1/16 miles over the Oaklawn dirt in the $150,000 Pippin S. for females four years old and up.

Last month’s Mistletoe S. winner Lovely Ride will re-oppose second-place finisher Coach, along with third-placegetter Will’s Secret, and today’s morning-line favorite, Le Da Vida, who came home fourth in the Dec. 10 stakes at Oaklawn.

Below we examine the full field and offer our best exotics plays — including exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets — for the upcoming Pippin S., listed as Race 9 on Oaklawn’s Saturday card.

Pippin S. selections

  • #7 Coach (7-2)
  • #3 Lovely Ride (3-1)
  • #5 Ice Orchid (12-1)

Pippin S. exotics

  • $5 Exacta: 7 with 3, 5 ($10)
  • $2 Trifecta: 7 with 3, 5 with 2, 3, 5, 9 ($12)
  • 20-cent Superfecta: 3, 7 with 3, 5, 7 with 2, 3, 5, 6, 7, 9 with 1, 2, 3, 5, 6, 9 ($12.20)

#1 TRAVERSE (8-1): The Street Sense filly makes her first start for Riley Mott after winning twice from two starts under the guidance of Tom Drury in a seven-furlong maiden claimer and one-mile allowance at Churchill Downs. The four-year-old moves up in class and stretches out to 8 1/2 furlongs for the initial time in her first start in nearly two months. Traverse posted a sharp, 47-second four-furlong workout ahead of this event and will get jockey Francisco Arrieta, an 18% winner with routes.

#2 LE DA VIDA (2-1): The six-year-old failed as the favorite in the one-mile Mistletoe S. last out, settling off the pace and lacking a closing response when under pressure through the lane. Trainer Nacho Correas is a 21% winner with beaten favorites but just a 10% winner in graded stakes and routes. Two back, Le Da Vida won by 2 1/2 lengths at today’s distance, beating third-place finisher Will’s Secret by five lengths while posting a 94 Brisnet Speed rating. She’ll keep regular rider Vincent Cheminaud, who is 2-for-3 with the Gemologist mare over his last three rides.

#3 LOVELY RIDE (3-1): The Candy Ride mare owns a 7-2-1-1 record at today’s distance with a career-best 93 Brisnet Speed figure. The five-year-old wired the Mistletoe as the 4.70-1 fourth choice, winning by 3 1/2 lengths with a 92 Speed rating. Conditioner Robertino Diodoro is a 21% winner in non-graded stakes and a 27% winner with horses that won their last race. He’s also 7-2-1-1 when paired with rider Cristian Torres over the last 14 days, and Lovely Ride posted a bullet 47-second four-furlong workout on Dec. 31, indicating she’s sharp and ready.

#4 FAMILY TIME (20-1): The five-year-old Not This Time mare ran at a mile and 70 yards in her last two, finishing first by half a length two back in an allowance at Remington Park and a distant fifth in the She’s All In S. at the same track. Her best Speed rating at today’s distance is a 90, and she’s never raced at Oaklawn. Trainer Martin Villafranco is a 7% winner with shippers and 0-for-4 in non-graded stakes.

#5 ICE ORCHID (12-1): The John Ortiz pupil has a win and a second from two tries at today’s distance, both run at today’s track back in February of 2022. The Super Saver filly finished 7 1/2 lengths behind Kentucky Oaks (G1) winner Secret Oath when finishing second in the 1 1/16-mile Honeybee (G3) four back and has since run twice at a mile and once at nine furlongs, in which she finished first by a nose in an allowance at Keeneland. The four-year-old will drop in class here after coming home second against tougher in the one-mile Chilukki (G3) at Churchill Downs last out. Saturday will mark her first start in nearly two months. She’ll get Ricardo Santana Jr. back in the saddle and is 5-2-2-1 with the jockey.

#6 GRAYSONSMACHO GAL (15-1): The Mucho Macho Man six-year-old lost by half a length to Will’s Secret last out in an allowance optional claimer at 1 1/16 miles. The pacesetter is 0-for-6 at today’s distance but has four second-place finishes. The second Ortiz runner in the field, she posted a 98 Brisnet Speed rating — the highest speed figure at today’s distance among the group — when finishing a head second in the Iowa Distaff S. four back. But her recent speed figures have regressed, and she has placed just once in four starts at Oaklawn.

#7 COACH (7-2): The five-year-old won this race last January under Santana then moved up to Graded Stakes company and came home fourth by 2 3/4 lengths in the Bayakoa (G3) at this track. She finished out the 2022 season with a distant fourth in the Chilukki, 7 1/2 lengths behind second-place finisher Ice Orchid, then placed second to Lovely Ride in the Mistletoe last out. Trainer Brad Cox is a 23% winner in non-graded stakes and is 6-2-1-0 over the last 14 days. The A.P. Indy granddaughter is 6-3-3-0 at today’s distance and 7-2-2-1 at Oaklawn. Joe Talamo is named to ride.

#8 MISTY VEIL (15-1): The Tonalist mare finished second and fourth in her last two, both at today’s distance, and now moves to the barn of Mike Maker, a 16% winner first race after the claim and a 14% winner in non-graded stakes. The five-year-old boasts a 13-4-5-1 record at today’s distance and a 2-1-1-0 record at Oaklawn, but her recent speed figures at today’s distance (79 and 80) are far below the par winning figure (96) for today’s race conditions. Florent Geroux will pick up the mount and wins at a 22% clip with routes.

#9 WILL'S SECRET (10-1): The D. Wayne Lukas pupil has faced a handful of today’s race rivals in her last three, finishing five lengths behind Le Da Vida three back at today’s distance, then beating Graysonsmacho Gal by half a length in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer before coming home third to Lovely Ride and Coach in the one-mile Mistletoe. She’ll add blinkers for the first time, a winning move just 4% of the time for Lukas, and will get David Cabrera in the saddle, a 9% winner this meet. The Will Take Charge five-year-old has three wins and three thirds from 10 tries at today’s distance and is 3-2-0-1 at Oaklawn.

#10 FOREVER DREAMING (20-1): Another Lukas trainee, the well-bred mare will move up in class after winning by two lengths in a $32K claimer on turf at today’s distance back in September. Her most recent start on dirt resulted in a last-of-seven finish at seven furlongs. The Factor five-year-old will get rider Mickaelle Michel, just a 7% winner with routes.