Back-to-back triumphs in the 1 1/16-mile Private Terms S. and 1 1/8-mile Federico Tesio S. have stamped Pay Billy as a contender for the 2025 Preakness (G1).

Stretching out over 1 3/16 miles in the Preakness is a new challenge for Pay Billy to overcome. He was decelerating down the homestretch of both the Private Terms and Federico Tesio, so it’s possible classic distances will stretch the limits of Pay Billy’s stamina.

Pay Billy is a son of Improbable, the champion older dirt male of 2020 after winning the 1 1/4-mile Hollywood Gold Cup (G1), 1 1/8-mile Whitney (G1), and 1 1/8-mile Awesome Again (G1) in succession. Improbable also finished second in the 1 1/4-mile Breeders’ Cup Classic (G1) and fourth in the 1 1/4-mile Kentucky Derby (G1), so it’s safe to say he was an effective performer over classic distances.

In this respect, Improbable took after his dam sire, A.P. Indy, much more than his sire, City Zip. Whereas City Zip was an early-maturing sprinter who scored his biggest victory in the seven-furlong Hopeful (G1), A.P. Indy was a long-winded route racer who won the Breeders’ Cup Classic and 1 1/2-mile Belmont (G1) on his way to Horse of the Year honors. A.P. Indy has since developed into a tremendous source of stamina at stud, and Improbable clearly inherited a dose.

Improbable’s first foals hit the races in 2024. Thus far, speedy sprinter Governor Sam has proven the best of the lot, winning the Tyro S., Rosie’s S., and Indian Summer S. before placing third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf Sprint (G1) and William Walker S. All of those efforts have come dashing 5 1/2 furlongs or less.

Other sons and daughters of Improbable have displayed talent as milers. They include one-mile Honey Ryder S. winner Starship Impulsive and 1 1/16-mile Best of Ohio Juvenile S. runner-up Ed’s Reward.

It’s too early to say for certain whether Improbable as a sire is a source of speed (like City Zip) or stamina (like A.P. Indy). There isn’t enough data to make a determination.

However, the dam side of Pay Billy’s pedigree definitely contains speed influences.

Pay Billy is the third starter produced by Harlington’s Rose, a durable sprinter who secured her signature triumphs in the six-furlong Las Flores (G3) and 6 1/2-furlong Kalookan Queen S. Her most accomplished foal prior to Pay Billy, Espionage, likewise displayed speed when prevailing in the six-furlong Ft. Bliss S.

Harlington’s Rose, in turn, is a daughter of Harlington out of A Rose for You. Harlington proved his worth over the Preakness distance when taking the 1 3/16-mile Gulfstream Park H. (G2), but as a stallion, he’s best known for siring Wavell Avenue, a top-tier sprinter who recorded a win and a second in two editions of the Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint (G1). His other accomplished runners include one-mile Goldikova (G2) heroine Uzziel and about 6 1/2-furlong Las Cienegas (G3) winner Coniah.

Interestingly, Wavell Avenue has gone on to foal a couple of high-class turf runners in Japan. Grenadier Guards proved best as a sprinter/miler with wins in the 1,600-meter (about one-mile) Asahi Hai Futurity (G1) and 1,400-meter (about seven-furlong) Hanshin Cup (G2), while Queen’s Walk showed more stamina when triumphing in the Kinko Sho (G2) and Rose (G3) racing 2,000 meters (about 1 1/4 miles).

Getting back to A Rose for You, she proved best as a sprinter, winning the six-furlong Star de Lady Ann S. That’s not surprising since she’s a daughter of Orientate, the champion sprinter of 2002 after winning the six-furlong Breeders’ Cup Sprint (G1), 6 1/2-furlong Forego H. (G1), and four other stakes dashing seven furlongs or less.

With all the speed in the bottom half of Pay Billy’s pedigree, the fact that he’s won at the stakes level over 1 1/8 miles can likely be credited to his sire, Improbable. It’s certainly possible Improbable has passed on enough stamina to carry Pay Billy over 1 3/16 miles in the Preakness, but there’s perhaps an even greater chance Pay Billy’s route racing proficiency will be limited by the dam side of his pedigree, capping his distance capabilities at just shy of classic distances.

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