Presque Isle Downs Selections and Analysis for Tuesday, July 25, 2023
Dick Powell offers his selections for the Tuesday card at Presque Isle Downs.
1st: (2) LARZ – held on for second as the odds-on favorite in his Presque Isle debut then moved up in class and won going away. He raced evenly last out when moved up in class and now drops back down with Pablo Morales back aboard.
2nd: (7) LITTLE BIG – broke his maiden here in his ninth career start against bottom maiden claimers then came back and beat cheaper by four easy lengths last out at 9-10. Improving horse has some back class so the move up is not out of the question.
3rd: (6) GRAVE DANGER – horse for the course has thrived here going two turns while getting in light with Martina Rojas.
1st: (5) SPAN OF CONTROL – gelded son of Into Mischief broke his maiden on the Tapeta going five furlongs at Gulfstream Park. Off for six months, he has raced evenly here in his last two starts for John Fennessy, who wins 20% with Mike Allen.
2nd: (1) ARGYLL – finished up last year with a win against bottom maiden claimers here. He came back eight months later with a pair of decent efforts and now drops down in class. Erin Walker rides back — flat-bet profit with her sprint rides.
3rd: (2) HUNTIN’ THE RUT – showed good speed to the final furlong last out in his second start off the long layoff.
1st: (5) EFFICACIOUS – was only beaten two lengths in her career debut here at 11-1 going six furlongs in good time. She adds Lasix for the first time. Matt Kintz wins 20% against this maiden level.
2nd: (7) SOLDIERESS – showed high speed here in her Presque Isle debut going two turns then she showed little next out when stuck in traffic. She bounced back with a good third going this distance for Aldana Spieth, who wins 14% against this maiden level.
3rd: (2) KAGERO – woke up here two starts back when Lasix was added for the first time and just missed at 61-1 odds.
1st: (4) GOVERNOR ATWOOD – has yet to win here in 12 career tries but has run second the last four times he faced this maiden claiming level. Last out, he showed better speed and was right there to the final yards.
2nd: (2) ON AN ISLAND – showed good speed for six furlongs last out going two turns and now drops down in class and distance for Cassandra Judd, who is winless with 27 starters this year but is able to pick up leading rider Pablo Morales.
3rd: (1) LUCKY SMILE – was badly outrun by 50 lengths in his first three starts but improved some last out.
1st: (6) NICE ACE – classy son of Noble Mission won this stakes race by over five lengths last year. He prepped for that win with a trio of open company races and shows up this year with a good third going two turns then a game win going short in fast time.
2nd: (2) BUY LAND AND SEE – has won three state-bred stakes races on the turf and now tries Tapeta for the first time. He has strong early pace and draws well with regular rider Mychel Sanchez. Guadalupe Preciado wins 43% against this stakes level.
3rd: (1) HE’S A MESS – horse for the course gets tested for class and comes in off a sharp win at this distance here last out.
1st: (3) HUSH OF A STORM – sports a solid record out of town on Tapeta at Turfway. He was a sharp winner two starts back on the turf at Belmont then raced evenly in a fast stakes race without Lasix. He picks up Antonio Gallardo.
2nd: (5) FRANZ JOSEF – won here two starts back going two turns then turned back to a sprint and was a game second in very fast time. Glenn Wismer wins 26% going short to long and 25% with his synthetic-track starters.
3rd: (6) SPIRITED SOL – horse for the course tired going two turns then raced evenly in a six-furlong stakes race here.
1st: (6) BREEZY CONNECTION – horse for the course took nine tries to break his maiden but came here and has won three of four while moving up in class. Gerry Brooks wins 18% with his synthetic-track starters and 16% first start after a win.
2nd: (7) MERINO WOOL – moved up to this open allowance level and just missed last out in a long sprint when she passed all but one. Ed Rojas wins 22% with his allowance starters and 24% with his synthetic-track starters.
3rd: (1) HALF BIRTHDAY – horse for the course moves up in class for Matt Kintz, who wins 25% third start off the layoff.
1st: (2) NATHANIEL’S HOPE – still winless after 20 tries but he has seven placings. He has been stuck at this bottom maiden claiming level but ran well the last two times he has faced them. From the inside, he has no excuses.
2nd: (8) VAMONOS – still a maiden after 13 tries, but he is only a three-year-old. He showed good speed going two turns against better maidens here off the layoff then raced evenly last out. Erin Walker picks up the mount.
3rd: (9) MOCA MONSTER – another perennial maiden might not graduate but can get into the money at decent odds.