Strong State the pick in Pocahontas Stakes

I really like #9 Strong State (5-1) in the $300,000 Pocahontas S. (G3) at Churchill Downs on Saturday. The Al Stall-trained daughter of Tom’s d’Etat has performed pretty well in each of her trio of races to date and will run with blinkers on for the initial time. 

Pocahontas Wagers

• $40 win #9 Strong State ($40)
• 50-cent trifecta 6,9 with 6,9 with all ($12)

The bargain $18,000 yearling purchase debuted beneath the Twin Spires and rallied to be second best in a swift 5 1/2-furlong dash on June 16. The April foal then graduated in game fashion by a neck at Saratoga in her second assignment when the third-place finisher was 14 lengths behind the top duo. In the Spinaway S. (G1) most recently, Strong State ran a decent fourth following a slow break over a muddy strip, which presumably prompted the equipment change. 

She will improve while traveling the one-turn mile on Saturday after a trio of sprints to commence her career, and I feel that it is a major positive that Irad Ortiz Jr. will retain the ride. This race is not especially deep, and the April foal will be awfully tough with an expected forward move. There is a decent measure of early speed in the affair, but Strong State is not slow and I expect her to be within striking distance of the leader every step of the way. 

The horse that I fear most in the contest is #6 Pretty Sure (12-1) for Brendan Walsh. Gray daughter of Improbable was full of run late in her decisive maiden score at Ellis Park on Aug. 25, and while I am not sure what she defeated on that afternoon, I still expect her to be a major player against this group for a conditioner who is generally better with horses having some experience. She has posted six morning moves on the course this summer and looks to be of excellent value, as well. Joel Rosario will take the reins and have the Peter Callahan homebred rallying from well off the early action.