The horse you need to bet in the Pegasus World Cup Turf

There are no certainties in horse racing, but I’m pretty certain #5 Colonel Liam (7-2) is going to emerge victorious from Saturday’s $1 million Pegasus World Cup Turf (G1) at Gulfstream Park.

At first glance, Colonel Liam might seem like an odd choice to win this rich, 1 3/16-mile prize. He has never contested a graded stakes of any sort, let alone a Grade 1, and many of his rivals have run faster Brisnet Speed ratings.

But dig a little deeper, and Colonel Liam’s credentials become apparent.

• Colonel Liam has two wins from three starts on turf. His lone defeat came with a troubled trip in the 1 3/16-mile Saratoga Derby, where he was beaten less than a length by future Grade 1 winners Domestic Spending and Gufo.

 

• Colonel Liam recently returned from a layoff to dominate the 1 1/16-mile Tropical Park Derby at Gulfstream Park. With a clear affinity for the Gulfstream turf course, Colonel Liam settled in mid-pack, then blazed the final five-sixteenths of a mile in :28.43 to dominate by 3 1/4 lengths.

 

 

• Colonel Liam has posted Brisnet Late Pace ratings of 106 and 112 in his last two starts, which rank among the best figures in the Pegasus World Cup Turf field. Clearly, the son of Liam’s Map possesses serious homestretch acceleration.
• Colonel Liam is trained by Todd Pletcher, who has compiled a 26% win rate at Gulfstream this winter.
• Colonel Liam will be ridden Saturday by reigning Eclipse Award-winning jockey Irad Ortiz, a 32% winner when he teams up with Pletcher over the last two months.
• Colonel Liam has drawn perfectly in post 5, which gives him plenty of options to work out a clean trip.

There are plenty of talented horses entered in the Pegasus World Cup Turf. Colonel Liam’s graded stakes-winning stablemates #6 Largent (9-2) and #12 Social Paranoia also enter in hot form and will receive plenty of wagering support.

But Colonel Liam has shown a world of potential, and with just five starts under his belt, the gray 4-year-old still has plenty of upside.

I’ll confidently bet him to win, then key him on top of Largent, Social Paranoia, and #8 Anothertwistafate (5-1) in the exacta and trifecta.

$20 to win on #5 Colonel Liam
$5 exacta: 5 with 6,8,12 ($15)
$2.50 trifecta: 5 with 6,8,12 with 6,8,12 ($15)
Total: $50

Good luck!