Thursday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Churchill’s $5,461 Super High 5 carryover

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Thursday, Sept. 26 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Churchill Downs, including horses to play in Churchill’s $5,461 Super High 5 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Hoosier Park $1,000 Late Pick 4 Hit It & Split It: Hit the Late Pick 4 at Hoosier Park on Thursday to win your share of a $1,000 daily prize pool.
• Fraser Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in the final two races at Fraser Downs each day from Sept. 12 through Nov. 29.
• Hawthorne Race Course $1,400 Thursday Leaderboard: Place $10+ single-horse win bets at Hawthorne on Thursday to earn points and compete for your share of a $1,400 prize pool.
• Churchill Downs Selected Races $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second or third in selected races at Churchill Downs each day from Sept. 12-29.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 4:45 p.m. ET)

#4 Star Quality (7-5) is the heavy favorite after finishing second by a nose, a neck, and a half-length in his first three starts at this class level. But Star Quality’s Brisnet Speed ratings aren’t remarkable, and his tendency to settle for second place suggests he isn’t unbeatable on Thursday.

#1 Bitofjustice (3-1) is an upset threat. The two-year-old gelding finished just a nose behind Star Quality when debuting in a 7 1/2-furlong maiden special weight over the Horseshoe Indianapolis turf course earlier this month. If he handles switching to dirt, Bitofjustice can turn the tables on Star Quality in his second start.

Let’s play Bitofjustice over Star Quality in the exacta, then single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #1 Bitofjustice (3-1)
• #4 Star Quality (7-5)
• #3 Trusted Image (9-2)

Wagers

• $22 Exacta: 1 with 4
• $8 Double: 1 with 6
  Total: $30

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on turf, 5:16 p.m. ET)

Trainer Brendan Walsh has gone 10-for-27 (37%) saddling experienced horses at Horseshoe Indianapolis this meet, which includes a perfect 2-for-2 (100%) record with experienced juveniles.

That’s why we’re willing to back Walsh’s two-year-old filly #6 Triumphant Spirit (12-1). The daughter of Preakness (G1) winner War of Will debuted with a rallying fourth-place finish in a $50,000 maiden optional claimer racing one mile over the Ellis Park turf course. The competition may prove a little easier at Horseshoe Indianapolis, and jockey Evin Roman has gone 2-for-5 (40%) teaming up with Walsh over the last two months, so there’s a lot to like about Triumphant Spirit at 12-1 odds.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #6 Triumphant Spirit (12-1)
• #3 Indigo Stunner (8-5)
• #9 Fionn (6-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #6 Triumphant Spirit

Churchill Downs: Race 6: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 7:25 p.m. ET)

#9 Very Cosmopolitan (6-1) broke slowly and ran into some traffic trouble when debuting in a 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga. Nevertheless, she passed a bunch of rivals on her way to third place.

If Very Cosmopolitan breaks better and works out a clean trip in her second start, she can improve and vie for victory under hot jockey Luis Saez, a 20% winner at Saratoga this meet.

Let’s bet Very Cosmopolitan to win.

Selections

• #9 Very Cosmopolitan (6-1)
• #5 Book’em (7-2)
• #1 Dark Thirty (12-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #9 Very Cosmopolitan

Carryover Watch

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $5,461 Super High 5 carryover (5 p.m. ET)

When 26-1 longshot Pancake House won the final race at Churchill Downs on Wednesday, no one hit the $1 Super High 5, triggering a $5,461 carryover into Thursday’s card.

The prize pool is up for grabs in race 1, a maiden special weight for two-year-old fillies who brought a final bid of $50,000 or less at their most recent auction. The six-furlong dirt sprint has drawn 10 entries, so there are 30,240 possible Super High 5 outcomes.

While there’s certainly a chance one of the six first-time starters could visit the winner’s circle, we prefer the chances of two experienced runners: #4 Wisconsin Gal (4-1) and #8 Gerlin’s Empire (3-1).

Wisconsin Gal has finished second in two of her three starts. In a 5 1/2-furlong sprint over Thursday’s class level on Sept. 15 at Churchill Downs, she closed nicely from fifth place in a 12-horse field to finish second by 1 1/4 lengths, earning a 78 Brisnet Speed rating that tops Thursday’s field. She’s a logical candidate to challenge while stretching out over six furlongs.

Gerlin’s Empire might have an even stronger chance at victory. She started twice over Thursday’s class level during the summer at Saratoga, finishing second and fourth with respectable Brisnet Speed ratings of 73 and 70. Trainer Dallas Stewart has been hot at Churchill Downs this meet, going 2-for-8 (25%), and Churchill’s leading jockey Tyler Gaffalione (a 22% winner this meet) is picking up the mount, so the stage is set for Gerlin’s Empire to vie for victory.

We suggest keying Gerlin’s Empire on top in the Super High 5 while emphasizing Wisconsin Gal underneath. Among the first-time starters, focus on the fast-working #1 Itwillbefun (8-1) and the well-bred duo of #2 Ez Tree Ates (6-1) and #3 My Bossy Lady (12-1).

Ez Tree Ates, produced by the three-time graded stakes-winning sprinter Irish Jasper, is trained by Norm Casse, a respectable 15% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights. Meanwhile, My Bossy Lady hails from the barn of Andrew McKeever, a 19% winner with horses debuting in maiden special weights.

Good luck!