Tinsel S. field analysis and exotics plays for Oaklawn Park Dec. 17

December 15th, 2022

A field of eight three-year-olds and older will compete in the 1 1/8-mile Tinsel S. at Oaklawn Park on Saturday.

Four-year-old colt Run Classic opened as the morning line favorite for trainer Bret Calhoun and will look to score his third win in his fourth start of the season.

Below we offer a full field analysis and provide our best exotics plays — including exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets — for the final stakes race on Oaklawn’s Saturday card.

Tinsel S. selections 

  • #4 Bal Harbour (5-2)
  • #3 Run Classic (8-5)
  • #2 Hozier (10-1)

Tinsel S. exotics

  • $5 Exacta: 4 with 2, 3 ($10)
  • $2.50 Trifecta: 4 with 2, 3 with 1, 2, 3 ($10)
  • 50-cent Superfecta: 3, 4 with 2, 3, 4 with 1, 2, 3, 4 with 1, 2, 3, 4, 7, 8 ($12)

#1 LAST SAMURAI (9-2): The Malibu Moon four-year-old has been running at today’s distance in his last three, finishing fifth, third, and fourth against graded stakes company while posting Brisnet Speed figures ranging from 83 to 96. The D. Wayne Lukas pupil will drop in class here in his return to Oaklawn, where he has a 6-2-1-0 lifetime record. Rafael Bejarano will pick up the mount and has gone 18-5-2-4 over the last seven days. The rail post is also winning at a 20% clip under these race conditions at Oaklawn.

#2 HOZIER (10-1): A viable longshot to play underneath, Hozier was last seen wiring the 1 1/8-mile River City H. at Churchill Downs on Nov. 13 — a race that was originally scheduled for the turf but moved to dirt. Trainer Rodolphe Brisset is a 16% winner with shippers and a 13% winner in non-graded stakes. Ricardo Santana will hop in the saddle and is a 17% winner with routes.

#3 RUN CLASSIC (8-5): The morning line top pick finished a head second as favorite in a 1 1/16-mile allowance optional claimer at Churchill last out and will race at 1 1/8 miles for the first time. The Runhappy four-year-old has one start against stakes company, when finishing a distant 21 lengths in eighth in the Louisiana Derby (G2) back in March of 2021. The Bret Calhoun trainee will stick with regular rider Brian Hernandez, who has three wins and two seconds in his six lifetime starts with the colt. Calhoun is a 28% winner with beaten favorites, and Run Classic has posted a couple of sharp workouts ahead of this event.

#4 BAL HARBOUR (5-2): The seven-year-old First Samurai gelding will drop in class for trainer Robertino Diodoro, a 22% winner second after the claim and a 21% winner in non-graded stakes. Last out, Bal Harbour was a distant third in the 1 5/8-mile Thoroughbred Aftercare Alliance S. (G2) on the Breeders’ Cup Friday undercard at Keeneland while posting a 105 Brisnet Speed rating and 108 Late Pace rating. Two back, the chestnut wired a 1 1/8-mile claimer over a sloppy track, winning by 8 3/4 lengths and recording a 103 BRIS figure. Hot jockey Cristian Torres will jump in the irons here and is 20-7-1-5 to start the Oaklawn meet. He’s also 12-for-30 paired with Diodoro over the last two months.

#5 SILVER DUST (20-1): The eight-year-old Tapit gelding has failed to reach the winner’s circle in his last eight tries, dating back to June 2021. He’s also 0-for-3 at Oaklawn, 1-for-8 at today’s distance, and has finished in the money just twice in seven starts in 2022. He clocked an 85 BRIS figure in his most recent outing when finishing fifth by 4 1/4 lengths in a 1 3/16-mile allowance optional claimer in which he led through the first two calls before weakening at the stretch. Two back, he finished second by 3 3/4 lengths to Scarlet Fusion, who re-opposes here, in a 1 1/2-mile allowance optional claimer at Churchill Downs, where he also set the pace but gave way to Scarlet Fusion in upper stretch.

#6 LOGICAL MYTH (10-1): The six-year-old finished second by a length at today’s distance in the Zia Park Championship S., recording a 94 Brisnet Speed rating. Trainer Shawn Davis is an 18% winner with routes and a 17% winner in non-graded stakes, but the gelding switches to low-percentage jockey Tyler Baze, who is 9-0-3-0 this meet and a 10% winner in his last 115 rides at a route distance.  

#7 KING FURY (6-1): Third and fourth in the Fayette (G2) and Lukas Classic (G2), both at today’s distance, King Fury will ship to Oaklawn Park for his first start at the Arkansas track and gets some class relief here. Trainer Kenny McPeek is a 21% winner in non-graded stakes but a 10% winner with horses making their first start coming off a layoff of 46 to 90 days. The Curlin four-year-old will get a rider switch to David Cabrera, who is 24-1-1-2 at Oaklawn this meet.

#8 SCARLET FUSION (12-1): The four-year-old colt will move up in class after winning an allowance optional claimer at 1 1/2 miles on Nov. 2 at Churchill Downs. Trainer Joe Sharp is an 18% winner with horses that won their last race and a 15 % winner with shippers. The son of Curlin has a second and two third-place finishes in three tries at today’s distance and will get hot jockey Francisco Arrieta, a 21% winner this meet who is 2-for-3 paired with Sharp over the last two months.