Which prep races produce the best Triple Crown contenders?

It’s widely known which prep races serve as the best stepping stones to the Kentucky Derby (G1). But which races produce the best Triple Crown contenders?

Perhaps because there isn’t a Triple Crown winner every year—only 13 horses since 1919 have successfully swept the Kentucky Derby, Preakness (G1), and Belmont (G1)—there isn’t much discussion of which prep races are most likely to produce Triple Crown winners.

Let’s dig into the history books and find the answers.

Research methodology

We’ll start by reviewing the racing records of the 13 Triple Crown winners. We’ll list still-existing stakes races each horse contested prior to winning any leg of the Triple Crown and tally up how many Triple Crown winners came out of each race.

As part of our analysis, we’ll consider the age of various prep races. Some Triple Crown stepping stones are younger than others, and their productivity must be considered through this lens.

We’ll also note how the racing landscape has shifted through the decades, affecting the rise and fall of various prep races.

Finally, we’ll review every U.S. race that’s currently part of the Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifying series and count how many Triple Crown winners each has produced.

Data analysis

Note: War Admiral did not contest any modern-day stakes prior to sweeping the 1937 Triple Crown. 

Futurity Stakes tops the rankings

Through the decades, New York’s Futurity Stakes has outperformed all others at producing Triple Crown winners. Eight of the 13 Triple Crown winners (62%) utilized the Futurity as a stepping stone to the spring classics.

This is understandable when you consider the glorious history of the Futurity. It dates back to 1888 and was once the richest race in the United States. It was a target for the best two-year-olds in training, and the roster of winners from decades past reads like a who’s who of champions and Hall of Famers.

The Futurity carried Grade 1 status as recently as 2003, but it gradually lost luster compared to the much richer Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1). Nowadays, it’s a six-furlong turf sprint carrying Grade 3 status, making it unlikely to produce another Triple Crown winner.

Wood Memorial best of the modern-day preps

Unlike the Futurity, the Wood Memorial (G2) remains a prominent Triple Crown stepping stone. While it hasn’t produced a Kentucky Derby winner since 2003, the New York fixture is an important Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifier worth 100-50-25-15-10 points to the top five finishers, and it’s churned out half a dozen Triple Crown winners since its inaugural running in 1925.

Champagne, Hopeful, Sanford among productive preps for juveniles

The Champagne (G1), Hopeful (G1), and Sanford (G3)—three stakes for juveniles contested in New York—have respectively been part of the New York racing calendar since 1867, 1903, and 1913. Thanks to their long history and lasting prestige, they’ve done well producing Triple Crown winners, yielding between four and five apiece.

Derby Trial produced three winners, but no more will come

The Derby Trial—when it was held at Churchill Downs a few days before the Kentucky Derby—enjoyed a strong run in the 1940s, producing three Triple Crown winners.

Technically, the Derby Trial still exists. But in 2015, it was renamed the Pat Day Mile (G2) and shifted to Kentucky Derby Day. Barring another date shift, the Derby Trial/Pat Day Mile has produced its last Triple Crown winner.

Santa Anita Derby has produced two of the last three winners

The Santa Anita Derby (G1) began in 1935, making it younger than many of the other races in our analysis. But it’s produced a bevy of Kentucky Derby winners over the past 50 years, including two of the last three Triple Crown winners: Affirmed and Justify.

The Saratoga Special (G2) and the Tremont S., two New York stakes for juveniles dating back to 1901 and 1887, have likewise produced two Triple Crown winners apiece, though none since 1941.

The Laurel Futurity enjoyed a strong run in the 1970s, yielding Triple Crown winners Secretariat and Affirmed, but it hasn’t carried Grade 1 status since 1988, and these days it’s an ungraded stakes contested on turf, complicating its path to producing another Triple Crown winner.

Among the 10 stakes that have produced one Triple Crown winner apiece, the Hollywood Derby (G1) is now a turf race contested months after the spring classics, leaving it unable to produce future Triple Crown winners.

Several prominent preps await their first Triple Crown winner

Almost as fascinating as the races included on our chart and the ones absent. Even though the Florida Derby has produced more Kentucky Derby winners (25) than any other prep race, it’s yet to yield a Triple Crown winner—partly because it was inaugurated in 1952, after the majority of Triple Crown winners were in the history books.

The Louisiana Derby (G2) has likewise failed to produce a Triple Crown winner, even though it dates back to 1894.

Below is a list of all U.S. Road to the Kentucky Derby qualifiers contested across the 2025-26 season and the number of Triple Crown winners who have contested each race. For added context, the year each race was inaugurated is included.

Note: Sir Barton, Omaha, and Count Fleet all contested the Withers in the midst of their Triple Crown sweeps, back when the Withers was a spring race rather than a winter Kentucky Derby qualifier.

Conclusions

Looking at the broader picture, a few key takeaways are worth noting:

• The five races that have produced four or more Triple Crown winners all take place in New York, reflecting New York’s historical positioning as the epicenter of high-class horse racing in the United States.
• Four of the five races that have produced four or more Triple Crown winners are for juveniles. At least in the past, the major two-year-old prizes on the New York scene attracted future Triple Crown winners with regularity.
• Among races for three-year-olds, the Wood Memorial has outperformed all others at producing Triple Crown winners. Races of similar placement and prominence on the modern racing calendar, such as the Santa Anita Derby, Blue Grass, Florida Derby, and Louisiana Derby, have struggled by comparison.

Whether these trends hold true in the future remains to be seen. The two Triple Crown winners of the 21st century, American Pharoah and Justify, followed paths that would be considered unorthodox by historical standards. Justify contested only one stakes race prior to the Triple Crown, winning the Santa Anita Derby, while American Pharoah skipped all the New York juvenile prizes and the Wood Memorial too.

Still, a strict interpretation of the raw data suggests Triple Crown winners are most likely to emerge from New York, utilizing races like the Wood Memorial, Champagne, Hopeful, and Sanford on their way to the spring classics.