Tuesday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: Prince of Wales S. at Fort Erie

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Tuesday, Sept. 10 at Horseshoe Indianapolis and Fort Erie, including horses to single in a pair of five-figure carryovers at Horseshoe Indianapolis.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• Assiniboia Downs $10 Money Back: Receive refunds on single-horse win bets (up to $10) if your horse finishes second in any of the four final races each race day at Assiniboia Downs from Sept. 9-24.
• Fort Erie $10 Exacta Money Back: Receive refunds on straight exacta bets (up to $10) if your two selected horses finish in the top three, but not in the winning order, in eligible races at Fort Erie on Tuesday.

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 2: Maiden Special Weight (one mile on dirt, 2:41 p.m. ET)

Since 2023, trainer Brad Cox has compiled a phenomenal 10-6-2-0 (60%) record debuting juveniles in dirt routes at Horseshoe Indianapolis. With this in mind, how can we possibly oppose #1 Classic Example (3-1)?

Purchased for $400,000 earlier this year, Classic Example has put together a lengthy work tab in preparation for his debut, including a bullet half-mile in :48 1/5 at Keeneland. He looks ready for a winning debut, so let’s bet Classic Example to win and single him to start a double wager.

Selections

• #1 Classic Example (3-1)
• #3 Dogwood Crossing (4-1)
• #4 Baytown Beatle (5-2)

Wagers

• $30 to win on #1 Classic Example
• $10 Double: 1 with 2
  Total: $40

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 3: $40,000 Maiden Claiming (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 3:12 p.m. ET)

#2 Broadway Lights (9-2), a Brad Cox trainee, debuted with a seventh-place finish in a $50,000 maiden optional claimer racing one mile over the Ellis Park turf course. But she clipped heels significantly entering the first turn, so I’ll forgive her disappointing showing.

The competition figures to be a bit easier at Horseshoe Indianapolis, especially while dropping into a $40,000 maiden claimer. The fact jockey Fernando De La Cruz has gone 3-for-10 (30%) teaming up with Cox over the last two months cements Broadway Lights as a viable win contender.

Let’s bet Broadway Lights to win and single her to conclude our double wager.

Selections

• #2 Broadway Lights (9-2)
• #8 Peanut Gallery (5-2)
• #1 Annelle (5-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #2 Broadway Lights

Fort Erie: Race 10: Prince of Wales S. (1 3/16 miles on dirt, 5:35 p.m. ET)

The second leg of the Canadian Triple Crown takes place on dirt, a surface over which only two of the 10 entrants have run.

With this in mind, we won’t worry much about the fact #10 Essex Serpent (8-1) has never run on dirt. As a son of Honor Code out of a mare by Medaglia d’Oro, he’s bred to shine while switching surfaces.

Essex Serpent faded from a pacesetting position to finish 10th in the King’s Plate S., the first leg of the Canadian Triple Crown. But two starts back he led much of the way to win the 1 1/16-mile Marine (G3) over next-out KY Downs Preview Nashville Derby winner Cameo Performance.

Tactical speed is typically effective on dirt, so at 8-1 Essex Serpent is worth betting to win.

Selections

• #10 Essex Serpent (8-1)
• #5 Midnight Mascot (5-2)
• #9 Pierre (4-1)

Wagers

• $25 to win on #10 Essex Serpent

Carryover Watch

Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 4: $51,022 Pick 5 carryover (3:43 p.m. ET)
Horseshoe Indianapolis: Race 5: $30,715 Pick 4 carryover (4:14 p.m. ET)

Not every Tuesday features a five-figure, non-jackpot carryover for bettors to chase. Even fewer Tuesdays offer two such carryovers.

This Tuesday, however, is special. Horseshoe Indianapolis has a pair of carryovers that fit the bill: a $51,022 prize pool in the 50-cent Late Pick 5 and a $30,715 carryover in the 50-cent Late Pick 4.

The two sequences overlap. The Pick 5 starts in Race 4 and encompasses the entirety of the Pick 4, which begins in Race 5.

Pick 5 bettors looking for a single to build tickets around are in luck, because race 4 — a 5 1/2-furlong dirt allowance for Indiana-bred juveniles who have never won two races — features a standout favorite in #3 Jazzole (7-5).

Jazzole debuted in a five-furlong maiden special weight for Indiana-bred juveniles on July 29. He finished second by 5 1/4 lengths against Large Pour, who returned to win his next start — over the exact same conditions as Jazzole will tackle on Tuesday — by 17 3/4 lengths.

Jazzole likewise returned to win his next start. In another five-furlong maiden special weight for Indiana-breds, he led all the way to dominate by 7 3/4 lengths, earning a 73 Brisnet Speed rating that towers over Tuesday’s field. None of his rivals have earned a number higher than 66, so if Jazzole maintains his current form for Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, he can emulate Large Pour with an easy allowance victory.

Unfortunately, Jazzole’s race isn’t part of the Pick 4, so Pick 4 bettors may have a tougher time finding a single. The best chance might come in race 5, a six-furlong dirt allowance for Indiana-breds. #7 Neutron (5-2) has won two of his last three starts sprinting over the Horseshoe Indianapolis main track, and his lone defeat came in a stakes.

Last time out, Neutron led all the way to win a 5 1/2-furlong allowance at Horseshoe Indianapolis by a head, earning a career-best 87 Brisnet Speed rating. The only horse in Tuesday’s field who has ever posted a higher number is #3 Metallic Man (5-1), a five-year-old gelding who has gotten as high as 89. But that was last year, and Metallic Man is out of form at the moment, with his last three Brisnet Speed ratings falling in the 68-70 range.

Neutron doesn’t appear to be quite as likely a winner as Jazzole; there’s always a chance Metallic Man could recapture his best form, and #1 Healing Waters (9-5) is fast enough to challenge on his best day. But Neutron looms as the horse to beat, and a repeat of his last effort should prove sufficient to land in the winner’s circle. Pick 4 bettors in search of a single can feel reasonably confident building tickets around Neutron.

Good luck!