Turfway Park: Betting superfectas in the John Battaglia Memorial

Are you in the mood to tackle an ultra-tough handicapping challenge? Friday’s running of the John Battaglia Memorial at Turfway Park ought to fit the bill.

A full field of three-year-olds negotiating 1 1/16 miles over a Tapeta track, with 10 Kentucky Derby qualification points at stake for the winner? That sounds like a recipe for boxcar payoffs in exotic wagers, like the trifecta and superfecta.

A vulnerable favorite

Payoffs will be particularly enticing if we can defeat expected favorite #1 Gretzky the Great.

At first glance, the Mark Casse trainee appears formidable. He broke his maiden over the Woodbine Tapeta, then switched to turf for victories in the Soaring Free S. and Summer (G1). Gretzky the Great ended the season with a respectable sixth-place effort against elite competition in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf (G1).

But Gretzky the Great hasn’t run since November, and with just six timed workouts this year, he might need to get a race under his belt before he returns to peak form. The rail draw is also a downside, since Gretzky the Great could get buried behind runners if he employs his typical pace-tracking tactics.

Who can spring the upset?

#6 Pico d’Oro won the Juvenile S. at Ellis Park last summer, but he has been soundly beaten in his two previous route runs and might be best as a sprinter.

#11 Catman likewise displayed sharp stakes form as a two-year-old, when he nabbed the Laurel Futurity over a yielding turf course. But the son of Kitten’s Joy is unproven over Tapeta and hasn’t come close to winning in his last three starts.

That’s why I favor #4 Like the King. From the barn of Wesley Ward (a 30% winner at Turfway), Like the King showed early promise on dirt and turf before he switched to Tapeta for a Dec. 4 allowance at Turfway.

The result was impressive. After he secured the early lead, Like the King finished fast down the stretch.  He ran the final quarter-mile in :24.57 to dominate the one-mile event by 3 1/2 lengths under a hand ride.

Like the King was a bit green down the homestretch and refused to change leads on cue, but he leveled off nicely in the final sixteenth to post a 91 Brisnet Speed rating.

He will carry 118 pounds in the Battaglia, six fewer than Gretzky the Great, and figures to get a perfect trip setting or stalking a modest pace. If Like the King improves off his eye-catching local debut, he’ll be tough to catch.

We'll play Like the King on top in the superfecta, with Gretzky the Great and two-time Turfway winner #8 Hush of a Storm keyed underneath. For the other slots, we’ll spread deep, with #3 Twirling Mamba, #5 Kinetic Sky, #9 Fort Moultrie, and #12 Warrior in Chief.

$2 superfecta: 4 with 1,8 with 1,8 with 3,5,9,12 ($16)
$2 superfecta: 4 with 1,8 with 3,5,9,12 with 1,8 ($16)
$1 superfecta: 4 with 3,5,9,12 with 1,8 with 1,8 ($8)
Total: $40

Good luck!