Wagering expectations of a public tout

My race selections on Twitter can best be summed by the Toby Keith song, "I Love This Bar": "We've got winners, we've got losers..."

Sometimes we have both in the same race as was the case with the Pacific Classic Stakes on Sunday at Del Mar when 8-to-5 post time odds on Game On Dude caused me to bet that horse to win rather than Kettle Corn--the horse I picked on Steve Byk's "At The Races" as well as tweeted and discussed with friends.

Weekend @Steve_Byk picks: I'm Mom's Favorite (20-1 ML!), Orb, Starship Truffles, Kettle Corn, Let Em Shine, Somali Lemonade
— Ed DeRosa (@EJXD2) August 23, 2013

8-to-5 is worth it on Dude. I'm in.
— Ed DeRosa (@EJXD2) August 26, 2013

I hate to be a, but that was the easiest money I've ever made betting on a horse race
— Ed DeRosa (@EJXD2) August 26, 2013

Admittedly, that little extra mustard wasn't necessary considering my Game On Dude audible came just a minute before the race, but