Analysis: Sunday Pick 6 carryovers at Colonial Downs, Saratoga

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares horses to bet in a pair of Sunday Pick 6 carryovers at Colonial Downs and Saratoga.

Colonial Downs: Race 4: $14,308 Pick 6 carryover (2:00 p.m. ET)

The 50-cent “Old Dominion 6” Pick 6 at Colonial Downs has proven elusive in recent days. That’s why there’s a $14,308 carryover up for grabs on Sunday.

Weather could complicate the process of handicapping races and assembling tickets. There’s rain in the forecast for Saturday night through Sunday, and five of the six Pick 6 races are slated for turf. If the grass races get rained off the turf, that will dramatically change the complexion of the Pick 6 and likely result in a bevy of scratches.

The only for-certain dirt race in the sequence is Race 5, a $30,000 maiden claimer for two-year-olds sprinting six furlongs on dirt. #9 Good Lookerness (2-1) is the favorite after debuting with a ninth-place finish in a $35,000 maiden claimer at Laurel Park. However, we like the chances of #7 Caritas (5-1), who has run faster on the Brisnet Speed rating scale.

Caritas has competed twice against maiden special weight competition, finishing sixth at Gulfstream Park and fourth at Colonial Downs. Dropping into the maiden claiming ranks should put Caritas in the hunt for victory, so don’t leave him off your Pick 6 tickets.

Consider also using #5 Go Junior Go (8-1). True, he never fired in his debut against maiden special weight competition, finishing eighth while coming home behind Caritas. But he’s eligible to improve while dropping in class for his second start.

Saratoga: Race 4: $166,703 Pick 6 carryover (2:54 p.m. ET)

Though there aren’t any stakes taking place on Sunday at Saratoga, it’s still a terrific card to bet thanks to a massive $166,703 carryover in the $1 Pick 6.

If you’re searching for a single to build tickets around, we have a slightly creative choice to recommend. #3 Limes Don’t Lie (7-2) looks formidable at a bit of a price in Race 6, an $80,000 allowance optional claimer for fillies and mares dashing 6 1/2 furlongs on dirt.

Limes Don’t Lie is one of two fillies in the field trained by Chad Brown. The other is #7 Alyeska (9-5). They were separated by a neck when running 1-2 in a seven-furlong allowance at Saratoga last year, with Limes Don’t Lie coming out on top.

Alyeska is favored on Sunday, but she hasn’t raced since September. In contrast, Limes Don’t Lie has run twice this year and exits a runner-up finish against multiple Grade 1 winner Scottish Lassie in a seven-furlong $80,000 allowance optional claimer at Saratoga.

We believe Limes Don’t Lie’s recent racing action will allow her to maintain her edge over Alyeska on Sunday.

Good luck!