Analyzing mandatory-payout Pick 6 carryovers at Ellis, Gulfstream

A couple of mandatory-payout Pick 6 carryovers at Ellis Park and Gulfstream Park add great betting value to Sunday’s Thoroughbred horse racing action.

Ellis Park, Race 4: $172,617 Pick 6 carryover (2:16 p.m. ET)

If you’re going to win a share of the mandatory-payout $172,617 carryover in Ellis Park’s 20-cent Dade Park Pick 6, you’ll have to solve a couple of challenging maiden special weights for two-year-olds.

The first is Race 5, a 5 1/2-furlong turf sprint for fillies. The field contains many first-time starters, but based on trainer stats, none appear especially likely to win on debut. We’ll use #4 Storm’s Wake (7-2), a well-bred daughter of Oscar Performance who enters off quick workouts at Ellis Park, but only alongside the experienced runners #3 Diamondintherough (10-1) and #10 Practically Famous (6-1).

The second maiden special weight for juveniles is Race 7, held over one mile on dirt. We’ll definitely use the unraced Brad Cox trainees #1 Vaporetti (5-2) and #6 Rancho Santa Fe (5-1) since Cox wins at a 29% rate with horses debuting over one mile and farther.

But we also recommend including #3 Instant Impact (9-2), who ran fourth when debuting in a seven-furlong maiden special weight at Saratoga. Since 2021, trainer Kenny McPeek has compiled an excellent 23-8-4-5 (35%) record saddling experienced juveniles in dirt routes at Ellis Park, so look for Instant Impact to improve while stretching out in distance.

Gulfstream Park, Race 5: $102,383 Pick 6 carryover (3:04 p.m. ET)

With the mandatory payout of a $102,383 carryover on the horizon, the final pool for Sunday’s 20-cent Rainbow Pick 6 at Gulfstream Park is projected to exceed $1 million.

If you need a single to build tickets around, our best recommendation is #2 Light Fury (9-5) in Race 8, a $10,000 claimer taking place over 1 1/16 miles on Tapeta.

Light Fury is a great fit for these conditions. He’s won five of his last seven starts over the Gulfstream Park Tapeta track, including a pair of two-turn $10,000 claimers since July. He won the first by two lengths with an 83 Brisnet Speed rating, then improved to an 88 when wiring the second by 6 1/4 lengths. Those numbers are right around the par winning Brisnet Speed rating (85) for Sunday’s conditions.

Light Fury has recently defeated several of the rivals he’ll face on Sunday, and he looms as the only definitive pacesetter in the field. Light Fury appears perfectly spotted to snatch a third straight $10,000 claiming win.

Good luck!