Analyzing Sunday carryovers at Churchill Downs, Santa Anita

Sunday is Mother’s Day, and it’s also a great day for horse racing at Churchill Downs and Santa Anita. Each track has a non-jackpot carryover up for grabs.

Churchill Downs: Race 1: $7,960 Super High 5 carryover (12:45 p.m. ET)

The Sunday card at Churchill Downs gets underway with a $7,960 carryover up for grabs in the $1 Super High 5.

Race 1 is a $40,000 maiden claimer for two-year-old fillies dashing 4 1/2 furlongs over the main track. Two of the main contenders are #1 I Know Nothing (9-2) and #6 Speech and Drama (5-2), a pair of first-time starters.

I Know Nothing is trained by Doug O’Neill, who wins at a solid 18% rate with horses debuting in maiden claimers. The gray filly is a daughter of Upstart, who placed in multiple Grade 1 races at age two. Upstart sires 15% winners from first-time starters, so I Know Nothing has the pedigree to win from an early age.

As for Speech and Drama, she’s conditioned by Hall of Fame trainer Steve Asmussen, whose 11% strike rate with first-time starters improves to 13% with horses debuting at the maiden claiming level. Speech and Drama exits a quick three-furlong workout from the Keeneland starting gate in :36 1/5 and is slated to be ridden by hot jockey Jose Ortiz, a 25% winner at Churchill Downs this meet.

We recommend building Super High 5 tickets around I Know Nothing and Speech and Drama, counting on one to win and the other to finish in the top three.

Santa Anita: Race 4: $43,628 Pick 6 carryover (5:33 p.m. ET)

Santa Anita is celebrating Mother’s Day with a $43,628 carryover in the traditional $2 Pick 6.

If you’re looking for a single to build tickets around, our best recommendation is #2 Proud Racer (6-5) in Race 7, a $50,000 maiden claimer for California-breds sprinting six furlongs on turf.

Proud Racer towers over this field from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective. His last five starts have yielded numbers in the 80-88 range. In contrast, none of the other experienced horses in Race 7 have posted a Speed rating higher than 75.

There are two potential chinks in Proud Racer’s armor. One, he’s never run on turf, and two, he hasn’t raced since June. But trainer Peter Miller wins at a 22% rate with horses returning from layoffs of 90 days or more, so the time off shouldn’t be an issue. And since none of Proud Racer’s rivals have shown any notable propensity for turf (if they’ve tried the surface at all), chances are Proud Racer’s Speed rating edge will win the day.

Good luck!