Churchill Downs: Longshots to bet in the $197,923 Pick 6 mandatory payout

The Churchill Downs Spring Meet concludes on Sunday with the mandatory payout of a $197,923 carryover in the “Derby City 6” Pick 6.

Churchill Downs estimates the final pool for the 20-cent wager could exceed $1 million.

The Derby City 6 gets underway in Race 6 at approximately 3:19 p.m. ET. After analyzing the entries, we’ve identified a pair of double-digit longshots you’ll want to include on your tickets:

Race 7: #5 Valkyrie (10-1)

The first of four stakes in the Derby City 6 sequence is Race 7, the $225,000 Debutante S. for two-year-old fillies dashing six furlongs over the main track. A competitive nine-horse field has turned out, and we believe Valkyrie has a chance to surprise at a price.

Valkyrie has only run once, debuting on April 26 at Churchill Downs in a 4 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for horses who brought a final bid of $65,000 or less at their most recent auction. After dueling for the lead, she edged away to defeat next-out winner Cardio Cat by one length, earning a respectable 84 Brisnet Speed rating that stacks up well against the Debutante field.

Valkyrie’s winning debut is noteworthy since trainer Kenny McPeek isn’t known for cranking his juveniles to win first time out. When they do win on debut, they often develop into stakes horses. We anticipate Valkyrie will improve in her second start, making her an intriguing win contender in the Debutante.

Race 11: #12 Kaykay (12-1)

The morning-line favorite in this 6 1/2-furlong maiden special weight for fillies and mares is #2 Moona Lisa (5-2), a four-year-old filly trained by Bob Baffert. She’s certainly a logical contender after finishing a pacesetting second in her debut at Santa Anita last month, beaten only half a length.

But don’t underestimate Moona Lisa’s unraced stablemate Kaykay, a three-year-old daughter of multiple Grade 1 winner Charlatan, who sires a sharp 15% winners from first-time starters.

Kaykay has put together a respectable work tab highlighted by a bullet half-mile from the Santa Anita starting gate in :46. She’s also trained fast at Churchill Downs, clocking half a mile from the starting gate in :47 2/5. Jockey Florent Geroux has gone 4-for-10 (40%) teaming up with Baffert over the last two months, so all signs suggest Kaykay can factor in the final race of the meet.

Good luck!