Emerald Downs: Analyzing the $9,697 Pick 5 carryover

No one solved the 50-cent Pick 5 at Emerald Downs on Saturday, which means the Sunday card just got more interesting with a $9,697 carryover on the table.

The Pick 5 gets underway in Race 5 at 6:54 p.m. ET.

A couple of horses trained by Justin Evans are key contenders in the five-race sequence. Evans was the runaway leading trainer at Emerald Downs in 2024, going 63-for-194 (32%), and so far this year his record stands at five wins and three seconds from eight starters. That’s a spectacular 63% win rate and a 100% in-the-exacta rate.

Evans’ first entrant in the Pick 5 is #3 Golden Serenade (9-5) in Race 5, a $10,000 maiden claimer for three-year-olds sprinting 5 1/2 furlongs on dirt. Golden Serenade is one of the field’s fastest entrants from a Brisnet Speed rating perspective, and his most recent dirt start yielded a runner-up finish in a $10,000-$8,500 claimer dashing 5 1/2 furlongs at Turf Paradise. The winner, Ligerazo, returned to win a Mountaineer allowance in his next start.

Golden Serenade is a logical win threat while returning to dirt, adding blinkers, and picking up apprentice jockey Manuel Americano, who rides with a five-pound weight allowance. But Pick 5 bettors might want to use #1 Gran Senor Del Oro (5-2) for good measure. He finished ahead of Golden Serenade when running third in a $15,000-$12,500 maiden claimer at Turf Paradise in March, earning a 68 Brisnet Speed rating equal to Golden Serenade’s best numbers.

The other Evans trainee is #2 Bearings (8-5) in Race 8, a $40,000 allowance optional claimer taking place over one mile on dirt. Bearings has earned sharp Brisnet Speed ratings of 89, 89, 83, and 86 while recording four straight trifecta finishes this year. He won a couple of $35,000 allowance optional claimers during the winter at Turf Paradise, and he exits a runner-up finish in the Sunland Park S.

None of Bearings’ Sunday rivals have ever posted a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 86, so a typical performance from the morning-line favorite should be sufficient to deliver victory. We recommend singling Bearings in the Pick 5.

Good luck!