Friday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $42,057 Pick 6 carryover at Santa Anita

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Friday, May 8 at Gulfstream Park, Churchill Downs, and Santa Anita, including horses to single in Santa Anita’s $42,057 Pick 6 carryover.

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• $40 Belmont at the Big A Challenge
• $40 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $120 Churchill Downs Feeder to 5/17 Churchill Downs SFBC Qualifier
• $100 Churchill Downs Challenge
• $56 Charles Town Bet and Set Feeder to 5/23 Churchill Downs Bonus Feeder
• $40 Charles Town Challenge

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Gulfstream Park: Race 1: Maiden Special Weight (7 1/2 furlongs on turf, 12:50 p.m. ET)

#1 Back Nine Stakes (8-1) is an intriguing longshot. He debuted over the Gulfstream Park Tapeta track last month, running evenly to finish fourth in a 5 1/2-furlong $25,000 maiden claimer.

As a son of Caravaggio out of an English Channel mare, Back Nine Stakes is bred to relish turf, so there’s a chance he’ll improve significantly while switching surfaces. Adding blinkers (an 18% winning move for hot trainer Carlos David) could help too.

Let’s place a win bet on Back Nine Stakes.

Selections

• #1 Back Nine Stakes (8-1)
• #4 Risk (2-1)
• #2 Thom Thom (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #1 Back Nine Stakes

Churchill Downs: Race 7: Maiden Special Weight (six furlongs on dirt, 3:50 p.m. ET)

#8 Captain Mercury (6-1) has a shot to factor on debut for hot trainer Rohan Crichton, who has compiled a 7-2-1-0 (29%) record at Churchill Downs this meet.

Crichton wins at a sharp 23% rate with first-time starters, and Captain Mercury is a son of Tapiture, who sires a solid 14% winners from first-time starters. Two of Captain Mercury’s half-siblings have won at the stakes level, so Captain Mercury boasts a promising pedigree.

A win bet is in order.

Selections

• #8 Captain Mercury (6-1)
• #9 Tilt a Twirl (5-2)
• #4 Eleos (7-2)

Wagers

• $20 to win on #8 Captain Mercury

Santa Anita: Race 5: Maiden Special Weight (4 1/2 furlongs on dirt, 6:07 p.m. ET)

#2 Sentient Soon (5-2), an unraced two-year-old trained by Jeff Bonde, enters off a promising series of workouts. One week ago, she breezed a bullet half-mile from the Santa Anita starting gate in :47.

Bonde wins at a 19% rate with horses debuting in maiden special weights, suggesting Sentient Soon will be primed for a winning debut.

We’ll bet Sentient Soon to win and key her over #3 Buena Vida (2-1) in an exacta.

Selections

• #2 Sentient Soon (5-2)
• #3 Buena Vida (2-1)
• #7 Lahar (5-1)

Wagers

• $24 to win on #2 Sentient Soon
• $6 Exacta: 2 with 3
  Total: $30

Carryover Watch

Santa Anita: Race 3: $42,057 Pick 6 carryover (5:07 p.m. ET)

This week’s racing action at Santa Anita gets underway on Friday with a $42,057 carryover up for grabs in the $2 Pick 6.

After analyzing the entries, we’ve identified a pair of strong favorites worth singling at short prices:

Race 6: #5 Start the Ride (6-5)

Start the Ride looks tough to beat while dropping in class for Race 6, a $50,000 allowance optional claimer for California-breds racing one mile on turf.

Some bettors might hesitate to single Start the Ride since he’s never run on turf; he’s instead competed exclusively on dirt. But trainer Dan Blacker wins at a solid 17% rate with horses switching from dirt to turf, and in any case, we anticipate Start the Ride’s class will win the day.

Start the Ride delivered a strong performance in the 1 1/16-mile California Chrome Cal Cup Derby in January, winning by 1 3/4 lengths over a field including future Louisiana Derby (G2) runner-up and Kentucky Derby (G1) starter Pavlovian. In the process, he earned an 88 Brisnet Speed rating.

Start the Ride didn’t fare quite as well as Pavlovian in two tries on the Road to the Kentucky Derby. He finished sixth in the San Felipe (G2) and fifth in the Santa Anita Derby (G1). But even in defeat, Start the Ride earned Brisnet Speed ratings of 85 and 90.

None of the other horses in Race 6 have earned a Brisnet Speed rating higher than 82 this year. If Start the Ride brings anywhere near his best while switching surfaces, he should win without much difficulty.

Race 7: #4 Bitter Truth (1-1)

This one-mile $12,500 maiden claimer for California-bred fillies and mares looks ripe for conquest by Bitter Truth.

Most of the horses entered in Race 7 were beaten by a double-digit margin in their most recent start. Bitter Truth is a notable exception. She’s made three starts in sprints over this track and class level, finishing fourth by four lengths, third by 1 1/4 lengths, and third by 1 1/4 lengths. Last time out, she earned a 75 Brisnet Speed rating four points higher than the par winning number for Friday’s conditions.

As a daughter of Clubhouse Ride out of a mare by Awesome Again, Bitter Truth has the pedigree to handle stretching out over one mile. Throw in the fact trainer Craig Lewis wins at a solid 17% rate with horses running long for the first time, and Bitter Truth is a compelling single in the penultimate leg of the Pick 6.

Good luck!