Aqueduct: How to bet the Manila Stakes

June 27th, 2024

Manila Wagers

$30 win #3 Neat ($30)

$2 superfecta 3,6 with 3,6 with 4 with all ($12)

$1 superfecta 3,6 with 3,6 with all with 4 ($6)

Manila Stakes Analysis

A compact field of six will vie in Saturday’s $250,000 Manila S. (G3) at Aqueduct Racetrack. The one-mile turf event features a trio of horses to the inside who will be forwardly placed, while the three outside runners will be coming from off of the pace. I feel as though #3 Neat will sit off the leading duo to his inside and get the best trip in the group as my leading selection. 

Trained by Rob Atras, the son of Constitution has won four of his five route races on the lawn leading up to Saturday, with three of those victories coming in dominant fashion. The colt bagged the Transylvania S. (G3) in super impressive fashion two back, when he dropped back in early stretch only to make a furious dash in the final yards to re-rally in fine fashion. I’m willing to give him a pass for his unplaced showing in the deep American Turf (G2) most recently when he was wide throughout, and I fully expect him to fire his best shot on this day with Junior Alvarado in the controls. 

Gotham S. (G3) winner #6 Deterministic will make his first run on the grass and will show nice improvement following two subpar graded efforts on the main oval. By Liam’s Map, the $625,000 yearling purchase reportedly trained quite well on the lawn two works back and the outside draw will ensure the talented colt a clear voyage throughout. His female line is full of excellent turf performers, and trainer Christophe Clement is among the top conditioners of grassy runners in the states, as well. Dylan Davis picks up the mount and will have the colt stalking the pace in the early going. 

I’m not in love with #4 Move to Gold nor his one-run closing style, but the stakes winner is battle-tested and owns a big late kick that will make him an obvious exotics contender. The Klaravich color bearer missed by a nose in the recent Jersey Derby, and the dark bay captured the Awad S. in October in his lone run on the course, as well. The son of Twirling Candy will trail early prior to being unleashed at the top of the lane with Manny Franco in the irons. 

Neat wins the Transylvania S. at Keeneland (Phto by Coady Media/Renee Torbit/Keeneland)

Neat (inside rail) wins the Transylvania S. at Keeneland (Phto by Coady Media/Renee Torbit/Keeneland)