Monday’s Best Bets and Quick Picks: $86,735 Pick 6 mandatory payout

Handicapper J. Keeler Johnson shares best bets and quick picks for Monday, July 13 at Finger Lakes, along with a horse to single in Gulfstream Park’s mandatory-payout $86,735 Pick 6 carryover.

Today’s special offers from TwinSpires include:

• New Players $200 Sign-Up Bonus: Open your TwinSpires.com account using the offer code BET200 to start earning a $200 bonus.
• 8x Rewards Points at Woodbine Mohawk: Opt in and receive 8x rewards points on all wagers at Woodbine Mohawk each racing day in July.

Today’s TwinSpires tournaments include:

• $88 Colonial Downs Feeder to 7/17 Saratoga SSBC Bonus Feeder
• $40 Parx Challenge
• $60 Presque Isle Downs Bet and Set Feeder to 7/26 Saratoga NHC Qualifier
• $40 Mountaineer Challenge
• $80 Mountaineer Feeder to 7/17 Ellis Park Haskell Challenge Bonus Qualifier

Best Bets and Quick Picks

Finger Lakes: Race 3: New York Oaks (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 1:53 p.m. ET)

#6 Careless Whisper (7-2) has started twice in maiden special weights for New York-breds. In her debut dashing six furlongs at Aqueduct, she dueled throughout with next-out Bouwerie S. winner #5 Venetta (2-1) and was beaten only a head.

Careless Whisper’s second start came over seven furlongs at Saratoga, and she led all the way to trounce 11 rivals by 10 1/2 lengths.

We believe stretching out over 1 1/16 miles will give Careless Whisper a shot to turn the tables on Venetta. Let’s bet an exacta accordingly.

Selections

• #6 Careless Whisper (7-2)
• #5 Venetta (2-1)
• #1 Irish Fortune (3-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 6 with 5

Finger Lakes: Race 7: Leon Reed Memorial S. (six furlongs on dirt, 3:49 p.m. ET)

#5 Antonio of Venice (9-5) didn’t appear fully comfortable racing inside of #6 Ten Cent Town (8-5) around the turn of the six-furlong George W. Barker S. on May 25 at Finger Lakes. Once Antonio of Venice backed out and shifted outside, he re-rallied with interest to finish second by half a length.

Antonio of Venice had previously won a six-furlong allowance at Aqueduct by 2 1/2 lengths with a sharp 93 Brisnet Speed rating. If Antonio of Venice gets a better trip in the Leon Reed Memorial than he did in the George W. Barker, he can turn the tables on Ten Cent Town.

Let’s bet Antonio of Venice over Ten Cent Town in an exacta, then single him to start a daily double.

Selections

• #5 Antonio of Venice (9-5)
• #6 Ten Cent Town (8-5)
• #2 Yo Banana Boy (4-1)

Wagers

• $20 Exacta: 5 with 6
• $10 Double: 5 with 7
  Total: $30

Finger Lakes: Race 8: New York Derby (1 1/16 miles on dirt, 4:18 p.m. ET)

#7 Sculcos Folly (2-1) has won four straight races, including three stakes, by a minimum of 5 1/2 lengths. He wired the one-mile Gander S. at Aqueduct by 5 3/4 lengths, took the 6 1/2-furlong Mind Your Biscuits S. over the same track by 8 1/2 lengths, and then led all the way to dominate Saratoga’s seven-furlong Mike Lee S. by 5 1/2 lengths.

Sculcos Folly looks likely to secure his fifth straight win in the New York Derby. We’ll single him to conclude our double wager, then key him over #3 Talk to Me Jimmy (3-1) and #6 Bravaro (5-2) in a trifecta. 

Selections

• #7 Sculcos Folly (2-1)
• #3 Talk to Me Jimmy (3-1)
• #6 Bravaro (5-2)

Wagers

• $10 Trifecta: 7 with 3,6 with 3,6 ($20)

Carryover Watch

Gulfstream Park: Race 4: $86,735 Pick 6 mandatory payout (1:53 p.m. ET)

A new summer schedule at Gulfstream Park includes racing on Mondays, and each Monday will be highlighted by a mandatory payout in the 20-cent Rainbow Pick 6.

The carryover for this Monday is $86,735, and Gulfstream Park estimates the final pool will reach $750,000.

Before scratches, Monday’s Rainbow Pick 6 sequence features 54 horses (averaging nine per race) and 465,696 possible outcomes. Finding a trustworthy single to build tickets around will help simplify the sequence and reduce ticket costs.

Our best recommendation for a single is #5 Vermont (8-5) in Race 6, a maiden special weight for two-year-olds sprinting five furlongs on turf.

Best single: Race 6: #5 Vermont (8-5)

Race 6 features only seven entries, and Vermont looks like the most promising of the experienced runners.

Vermont debuted on June 26 in a maiden special weight sprinting five furlongs over Gulfstream’s synthetic Tapeta track. After pressing the pace in second place, he tired in the homestretch to finish third, beaten 6 1/4 lengths. But even in defeat, he earned a respectable 66 Brisnet Speed rating.

Vermont is a son of Vekoma, who sires a solid 17% winners on turf, including 14% winners from first-time turf starters. Switching from synthetic to turf offers potential for improvement from Vermont. It helps that trainer Mark Casse wins at an 18% rate with second-time starters, which suggests Vermont can move forward off his debut.

Cementing Vermont as the horse to beat is the fact Race 6 has come up relatively light overall. The four other experienced runners in the field have yet to record a top-three finish. Furthermore, the two first-time starters may prove better down the road. One is conditioned by a trainer who wins only 3% of the time with horses debuting on turf. The other is a son of Temple City, whose progeny win at an average distance of 7.3 furlongs, suggesting Monday’s five-furlong distance is shorter than ideal.

As a result, Vermont is a logical horse to single in the Rainbow Pick 6.

Good luck!